Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 120949
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
349 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Arctic high pressure over the area with very cold conditions and
dangerous wind chills this morning highlight the short term. A wind
chill advisory remains in effect until noon cst.

Currently, arctic high pressure extended from southeastern Alberta,
southern Saskatchewan, into northeastern Montana and much of North
Dakota. Clear skies associated with the arctic airmass with good
radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to drop across much of
the Northern Plains. Temperatures across much of western and central
ND ranged from 15 to 22 below...with a 26 below reading in Dunn
county. The arctic high is forecast to slide southeast towards the
Great Lakes today. Much of northern North Dakota should be clear to
partly cloudy.

Meanwhile, surface low pressure was over the 4-corners area with an
associated large deepening upper low over the western US. A large
area of clouds associated with this western US low was moving into
southwestern and far south central ND early this morning. An area of
light snow extended across southern Montana into parts of Wyoming
and western South Dakota. Kept a small chance of light snow this
morning across the southern tier of counties in southwest and south
central North Dakota. The baroclinic zone between the arctic air and
an upper level shortwave impulse emanating from the base of the low
will bring chances of light snow today along the ND/SD border. Most
forcing with this system will be south of North Dakota today.

The large upper level low pressure system in the southwestern US is
forecast to diminish as an upper ridge builds over the west coast
and northern Rockies. Temperatures tonight should range from around
zero to 10 below during the evening, then temperatures beginning to
rise towards sunrise as warm advection begins with winds becoming
southerly/southwesterly.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

An active progressive upper level pattern will dominate the long
term, with several shortwave troughs moving across the Northern
Plains. A rain/snow event Wednesday/Wednesday night, and another
chance of snow Saturday night and Sunday highlight the long term.

Tuesday and Wednesday...an upper level ridge continues to build
across the Northern Rockies, allowing strong mid-level warming to
occur. We are looking at temperatures reaching into the 20s and
lower 30s Tuesday, above zero lows Tuesday night, an even warmer on
Wednesday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Brisk southwest winds
Tuesday can be expected. The strongest warming on Wednesday will be
ahead of the next cold front, moving southeast into North Dakota
Wednesday afternoon. Expect west winds to become northerly across
northern ND in the afternoon. There will be a good chance of rain
and snow to accompany the front, beginning in northern North Dakota
daytime Wednesday, becoming widespread across the state Wednesday
night, before tapering off Thursday morning. At this time, it
appears we have the potential for widespread snow amounts ranging
from less than an inch south to 2 inches northern North Dakota.

Colder Thursday, then a quick warmup Friday ahead of a clipper
system diving southeast across south central Canada into northern
Minnesota Friday night. A larger system takes shape for Saturday
night and Sunday snow chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Arctic high pressure extended from southern Alberta/Saskatchewan
southeastward across North Dakota into eastern South Dakota. Clear
skies and cold arctic air was associated with this airmass.
Meanwhile low pressure over Colorado and the US Rockies was
associated with a warmer Pacific airmass, with plenty of cloud
cover.

Expecting VFR conditions with mainly clear skies over all northern
TAF sites at KISN and KMOT through the 24 hour TAF period with the
arctic high pressure dominating northern ND as the high moves
southeast across the region on Monday. Southern ND, including KDIK,
KBIS, and KJMS will lie along the broad boundary between arctic air
to the north/northeast and the pacific air to the south/southwest.
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS should see increasing middle and lower VFR cigs
through the day Monday. MVFR cigs are expected farther south along
the South Dakota border, where light snow is possible as well.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV



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