Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191723
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1223 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Increased chances of rain across far south central ND as area of
continuous rain develops farther east along the ND/SD border.
Intensity of rain has also increased those areas with latest doppler
radar precip total estimates of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain already
fallen mainly Hettinger and east...mainly in Adams, southern Grant,
and western Sioux counties. Still looking at high temps those areas
around 60, with low to mid 60s most other areas of western and
central ND. The James Valley, which should see increasing chances of
rain this afternoon, should be able to reach the lower 70s before
the rain and clouds lower the temps later this afternoon. Latest
meso analysis indicates some surface based and mixed layer CAPE -
mainly for northwest and north central ND. Thus kept the mention of
possible thunder in the northern areas.

UPDATE Issued at 838 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Quick update for observed trends through 13 UTC to increase PoPs
to 100 across the southwest and south central the remainder of the
morning.

UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Rain showers continue to move into western North Dakota and
increase in coverage. Have increased rain chances a bit further
north and east in line with latest radar trends and high-res model
output. Also, have increased cloud cover over the area throughout
the day. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Current surface analysis places high settling into central
Montana, while cold front stretches through the midwest into the
central plains. Upper level analysis places low over eastern
Hudson Bay with deep trough stretching into the northern plains.
Broad area of showers have developed along/ahead of the trough
over eastern into south central Montana, and continue to slowly
shift into western North Dakota.

For today...rain shower activity will be on the increase,
particularly over southwest into south central North Dakota where
greatest broad scale lift is noted with the advancing trough.
Instability is quite limited with this system, though enough exits
to possibly result in a few weak thunderstorms, so will keep low
chances for that mentioned. Chances gradually lessen overnight over
the south central as the base of the trough pushes east-
southeast. Temperatures will be a fair amount below average over
the area, particularly over southern locations where greatest
chances for rain showers exists.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Low precipitation chances linger over the James River Valley with
cyclonic flow in place as base of trough attempts to cut off as
it pushes east. Otherwise, a quiet and cool day is on tap.

Ridge quickly builds into the area to start the upcoming week
bringing a swift warming trend, with most locations pushing into
the mid 80s to mid 90s by Monday. An upper low pushes over the
Canadian Rockies on Monday and works its way over the Canadian
plains on Tuesday as a cold front drops into the area. This will
bring the next chances for showers/thunderstorms Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Below average temperatures return behind the front
for mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Light rain will continue at KBIS through 00-01 UTC. However,
conditions are expected to remain VFR. MVFR ceilings are possible
at KISN/KMOT/KDIK this afternoon, becoming VFR this evening. MVFR
ceilings may develop at KJMS late tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



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