Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 232048
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.

AFTERNOON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUPPORT THAT TREND. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

CONSIDERED ADDING PATCHY FOG IN THE WEST IN PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THERE IS A CHANCE OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WAS NOT QUITE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN YET. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR
AND ADD IF NECESSARY.

H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS DIFFERING
IN REGARDS TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE SREF GENERALLY SUPPORTS KEEPING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF BRING CHANCES
FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWARD TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS IN
THE SOUTHWEST. THE GOOD NEWS IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING IN THAT AREA...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
COOLING TREND COMING THIS WEEKEND.

THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN...PROGRESSING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES
EARLY THURSDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER THE 12 UTC RUNS
OF THE NAM AND GEM-NHEM SHOW PRECIPITATION FALLING FURTHER NORTH
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID
THESE LATEST 12 UTC RUNS ARE OUTLIERS WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
THE CURRENT 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO
SEE IF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM AND GEM-NHEM
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS...AS THEY SUGGEST BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES COULD FALL OVER THE PERIOD WHICH MAY PROMPT HEADLINES.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST AND
THINKING ONLY AROUND AN INCH TO TWO OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE...WHICH DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY
HEADLINES.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW. MID LEVELS SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING SO THAT NO MELTING
OCCURS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVELS DRY OUT...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINOR AND ANY PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD
BE BRIEF. THUS ONLY MENTION OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS DROPPING
FROM THE 20S CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH ON FRIDAY AND
TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
VERY COLD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 25 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
DROPPING TO 25 BELOW ZERO TO 35 BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM MINOT TO
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
CEILINGS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TO MVFR...AND WENT WITH A FAIRLY
OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK OVERNIGHT WITH SUGGESTIONS THAT THE MVFR MAY
LIFT TO VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...CK







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