Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
840 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Issued at 836 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Showers continue to develop over northwest North Dakota, so have
increased precipitation chances over that area and have added the
mention of thunder. Otherwise, only other change to mid-morning
forecast was to increase cloud cover throughout the area. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

An increase in clouds suggests broad lift is beginning across
southwest and south central North Dakota at this time. Bowman
radar just shows a few showers so not much is beginning yet. But
with the cloud trend believe we will see some increase in shower
activity soon. Current forecast looks ok.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The focus in the short term will be the change to much cooler
weather with the arrival of autumn and the increasing chances for
showers and some thunderstorms.

This morning, thunderstorms have formed along a triple point
frontal system across a southeast North Dakota. Current trends
suggest the thunderstorms will move just east of Dickey County.

Showers have formed along a northeast to southwest jet stream over
western North Dakota and eastern Montana. A secondary cold front
will also be a focus for showers today. CAM models have become
excited about increasing showers across southwest into central
North Dakota today. Model soundings (RAP Model) indicate elevated
convection is possible with strong shear and weak to moderate
CAPE. This suggests increasing chances for thunderstorms during
the day. The soundings analogues dont hit on much for hail today
but the CAPE and shear are fairly impressive above the inversion.
The neighborhood probability updraft helicity remains marginal
for a severe weather outbreak and the best area is northeast this
afternoon/evening. Will not add severe weather to grids but one
or two strong storms will be mentioned in the weather story and
hazardous weather outlook.

Tonight scattered showers will be highlighted across the region as
the upper trough moves east and teh region will be in an active
southwest flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The main focus for the Long term will be cooler temperatures with
a good chance for showers Saturday and Sunday. The cool weather
will last at least through next Tuesday. Highs during this period
will be in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. There could
be some patchy frost during this period. Chances for showers will
continue through Tuesday until the upper trough finally moves
through. Then moderating temperatures at least into the 60s are
expected with mainly dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Hazards to aviation will focus on deteriorating conditions from
VFR to MVFR with IFR developing at KJMS between 15-19z. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the region.




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