Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241734
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations shows
an area of stratus and fog continuing in western Adams into
eastern Bowman counties, from Hettinger to Scranton. Stratocumulus
clouds have developed over south central ND, from Bismarck to
Hazen, and extending into portions of north central. Latest HRRR
ceiling forecast initialized both of these cloud areas well, and
trends show the clouds will erode/thin out through the early
afternoon. This makes sense as subsidence aloft continues as a
mid/upper level ridge progresses across western and central ND.
The current forecast elements remain in good standing.

Looking ahead, the HRRR indicates patchy fog returning tonight
mostly along and east of the Missouri River, favoring the snowpack
area of north central ND. This seems reasonable as warm air advection
increases in the west tonight which should inhibit much if any
fog from developing.

UPDATE Issued at 859 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Patchy fog continues over the area so will continue to carry it
through much of the morning hours. Only other concern was whether
lower clouds over southern Manitoba will make their way into
northern portions of our area. This was reflected in previous
forecast so will leave it be for now but will keep an eye on it.
Have backed off on cloud cover over remaining areas.

UPDATE Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Current forecast on track with fog patches around Tioga,
Dickinson, Hettinger, Bismarck, and just east of Oakes.

Satellite shows low clouds advancing to the southwest, toward
north Dakota, out of the surface high in Manitoba.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Short term issues include icy spots on roads and sidewalks and
patchy fog this morning.

In areas that had rain Thursday evening that water did not dry. As
temperatures fell to and below freezing overnight the water froze.

Patches of fog formed overnight in the moist air behind the rain
bands and in the clearing. Drier air in the form of lower dew
points did work in from Manitoba. For that reason the fog was
patchy. Even in areas that had fog that drier air was keeping at
least some spread in temperature / dew point and so the fog was
not dense, at least not as of this writing.

Have issued a special weather statement for the icy spots and the
fog and will reissue for freshness soon.

Will expect the sun to work its magic on both the icy patches and
the fog as the morning wears on.

With high pressure to the north that ridging works in today with
subsidence for some sunshine and then a partly cloudy sky tonight.
This while low pressure and its warm front approach from the west.
That means a wide range in high temperatures for today, with the
cool pool high holding temperatures back from Minot through Rugby,
and the warm front pushing the Montana Border counties well into
the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Unsettled weather but with above seasonal temperatures highlight
the long range.

Synoptic scale models show a very progressive pattern with chances
for precipitation every other day or so in the fast flow. With
that said though the main jet dynamics are across the southern
part of the nation and the waves dig into the southern plains with
minimal impact on North Dakota. No significant precipitation is
expected from each wave, likely less than a quarter inch qpf,
coming as mixed precipiation at nighttime and rain during the
day. This with lows 25 to 35 and highs in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Localized MVFR cigs will be possible in low cloud cover primarily
over north central North Dakota through this afternoon into this
evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected through today.
By later tonight, some fog will develop over central into portions
of northwest North Dakota, resulting in areas of IFR visibility.
Conditions will improve to VFR over most locations by mid-morning
Saturday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The continuation of a relatively benign spring melt season
continues as the spring melt is now upon the Souris (Mouse) River
basin. Thus far, minor flood stage has been reached only at the
Souris River below Lake Darling forecast point, but minor flooding is
expected to spread as snow melt in Canada initiates runoff and
the melt rate in North Dakota hits its stride over the coming
days.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JJS
HYDROLOGY...AS



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