Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KBIS 170856

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
356 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows deep upper low
circulation near the Pacific Northwest with models initializing
very strong jet stream moving well inland. Max 250 mb winds of 165
kts per GFS moving into northern NV and as strong as 120 kts
approaching the Northern Plains. Both global models and high
resolution models are in pretty good agreement in bringing
shortwave trough and associated narrow east-west oriented band of
precipitation into southern ND today. Overall solutions appear
reasonable given strong jet dynamics, strong mid-afternoon
850-700mb frontogenesis and coincident band of isentropic lift
indicated by models, focused across southern ND. Radars in SD
beginning to show some increasing reflectivities as well as of
09Z. The ECMWF appears to be the slowest of the members and keeps
precip closer the SD border, while the NAM is farther north with
higher QPF. CONSShort guidance appeared reasonable, resulting in
increasing pops in today`s forecast to likely category across much
of south central ND. The shortwave trough should move rapidly east
tonight, with showers quickly ending from west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The Northern Plains will initially be under the influence of upper
level cyclonic flow, between upper level low over eastern Canada
and a strengthening ridge over western CONUS. We`ll continue to
carry a slight chance of showers on Tuesday, mainly north, as a
weak wave moves across the region. The upper level ridge axis
reaches ND by Thursday evening resulting in an overall dry pattern
with warming temps. High temps initially near normal in the 40s
and 50s through Thursday will warm to the 50s and 60s Friday,
continuing into the weekend. Right now, Friday looks to be the
warmest day with upper 50s across the north to low/mid 60s south.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. However a band of
showers is expected to spread across the southern part of the
state during the day. For now, have added VCSH to KBIS and KDIK
for mainly the afternoon.




AVIATION...JNS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.