Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 271947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. AS OF 19Z THE FRONT
HAD CROSSED ROLLA...BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWED DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
REMAIN ON WESTERN FLANK OF 110KT JET STREAK...IN LESS FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE.

TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SB CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH A LITTLE CIN IN PLACE AS
OF 19Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WAS ALSO IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA HOWEVER
WHICH MAY BE LIMITING DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS
HANDLED THE SURFACE FEATURES WELL...ALTHOUGH IT HAS OVERDONE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY REGION AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INCREASES
ACROSS THE AREA. JUST HAD CONF CALL WITH SPC AND WILL ISSUE TORNADO
WATCH FOR OUR 4 SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF FOSTER...STUTSMAN...LAMOURE
AND DICKEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM UNDER THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE A MID WEEK SPELL...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...OF COOLER AND LIKELY STORMY WEATHER. THIS AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ADVANCING SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT.
IT IS A MINI PARADE OF WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SO TIMING OF THE
WAVES WILL BE KEY FOR TIMING OF THE STORM CHANCES. FOR NOW BLANKETED
THE PERIOD WITH POPS AS THIS FAR OUT TO TRY AND PICK DRY TIMES IS
NOT REALISTIC.

THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. COLD FRONT IS
CROSSING THE STATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. CONTINUED VCTS FOR KBIS AND KJMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE NEAR KJMS
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JNS


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