Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280510
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1210 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT/BKN CLOUDS
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS FURTHER
UPSTREAM...THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. LATEST
HRRR/RAP13 ADVERTISE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PUSH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 13Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SCT/BKN CONDITIONS. MINOR UPDATES TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
ABOVE...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SCT-BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL
ENERGY AND ON THE NORTH/EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER JET STREAM.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK. DID INCREASE SKY COVER A
BIT EAST AS CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND LOOK TO DO SO FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. SCT LOW VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
KMOT EXPECTING BKN CIGS AT 4000FT FROM 15Z TO 21Z MONDAY. WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






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