Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DISSIPATE. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR WEST. THIS WAS COVERED IN THE MORNING UPDATE. FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT MOST AREAS.
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UTILIZED THE LATEST
HRRR FOR CLEARING SKY COVER LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES NEEDED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF MY FAR SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS LINGER ALL
AREAS...BUT WILL SCATTER/BURN OFF 14-17Z MOST AREAS. JAMES RIVER
VALLEY MAY SEE LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH 17-19Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL CREATE TROUGHING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CYCLONIC WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING/LOCATION AND ON A SOUTHEAST/EAST PROPAGATION OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
CANADA...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV RIDING OVER A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.
MAINLY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS COMFORTABLE AT
55-65. INCREASING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AS A
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED S/WV. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR
WEST SAT AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. WHILE THERE IS STILL LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY DEPICTED
BY MODELS...WENT WITH MAINLY SHOWERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY FOR A STRAY STORM
OR TWO CROSSING THE MT/ND BORDER SAT EVENING...SO DID PUT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAR WEST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE SPOTTY POPS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR T-STORMS MAINLY
WEST NEAR A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE 70S WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY WHERE MODELS INDICATE
THE STRONGER WAA.

STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND ONWARDS WITH
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALL THE
INGREDIENTS (STRONG INSTABILITY AND/OR DEEP LAYER SHEAR) WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVES EJECT OUT OF THE
TROUGH AND INTERACT WITH QUASI-STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY IS
PLENTIFUL...BUT THE PATTERN STRONGLY SUGGESTS A BUSY WEATHER WEEK
IS TO BE EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND KJMS TO BEGIN THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A DECREASING NORTH WIND. CLEAR SKIES AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY. A SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KDIK AND KISN...WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH


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