Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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306
FXUS63 KBIS 080315
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 0.5 KM ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.

FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT OVER WESTERN AND 45 KT ACROSS
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MONDAY....BUT GUSTS
TO 40 KT WILL LINGER IN THE KJMS AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN WESTERN ND THROUGH THE 00 UTC
TAF VALID TIME...BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS



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