Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 031753
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTENDED SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS DECENT BUT NO SHEAR
AND HARD TO FINE A SOURCE OF IGNITION WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SMOKE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. SPS
CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 16 UTC REGARDING SMOKE/VISIBILITY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE
 IN SMOKE. STILL MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE.
WITH NO LARGE SCALE AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TAF
PERIOD...KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN SOUTHERLY
ON SATURDAY...INCREASING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



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