Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271816

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
116 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017


Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Main forecast update for today was to mention a chance of showers
along a west to east orientated ribbon over mainly central ND
where models are placing some weak instability coinciding with an
easterly upslope flow and ahead of a weak mid level impulse. Other
forecast update was to keep fog in the forecast through this
afternoon north then expanding south tonight as per latest

UPDATE Issued at 929 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

No significant changes to the going forecast. Patchy fog continues
over portions of the James River Valley and the north central.
Recent observations indicate fog is lifting around Jamestown.
Populated latest sensible weather elements and interpolated to
late morning values. Will take a closer look at afternoon highs
with the late morning update.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Surface observations from across the region still show fog and
low visibilities across the eastern part of the state. Locally,
Jamestown has been fluctuating between 1/2sm and 1/4sm, but they
have been the only spot so far to fall that low across the BIS
forecast area. Weather cameras across the region tell a similar
story to the surface observations.  The current forecast is
carrying areas of fog in the east, and patchy in the central,
which remains a reasonable expectation.

Early morning regional radar mosaic shows a few light returns
moving across the northern part of the state. Do not expect those
in the northwest and north central to be reaching the ground at
this point with forecast soundings showing dry air in the low and
mid levels of the atmospheric column.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Melting snowpack, light winds and subsidence will lead to fog
across most of northern North Dakota this morning. Dense fog is
possible around Rugby, Rolette, Bottineau and surrounding areas.
Any fog that does develop should dissipate by noon.

Another weak upper level wave moves into western North Dakota this
afternoon. Some isolated showers may develop across western North
Dakota this afternoon, but confidence isn`t high enough at this
time to put it into the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Above normal temperatures will continue through the week with
readings mainly in the 50s.

There are a few chances for precipitation this week, but only with
very light amounts. The next chance for precip is Tuesday night
into Wednesday, however the latest model runs are rather low and
sparse with respect to QPF. There is perhaps a better chance for
precip later this week...Friday into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A cold front situated from northwest into southeast North Dakota
will become nearly stationary today. This boundary will be the
focus for potential fog and stratus development through the 18Z
TAF period. Areas IFR cigs and near KMOT early this afternoon and
have a mention of IFR ceiling there. Otherwise expect more
widespread IFR ceilings and visibilities this evening through 18Z
Tuesday, especially at KMOT, but also spreading south and west to
KISN and KJMS. Some models spread low stratus through KBIS as
well. At this time it appears KDIK should remain VFR.




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