Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280255
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST BY A FEW MORE HOURS...
UNTIL 3-4 AM TIME FRAME. THIS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

DELAYED ONSET OF RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NO HINT AT
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF RAIN / THUNDERSTORM AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA.

NO CHANGE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS FOG CHANCES AGAIN
TONIGHT.

LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...IN ADDITION TO THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL...AND TO A GREATER EXTEND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WE DO NOT HAVE THE GREAT RADIATIONAL SET-UP
LIKE LAST NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT WIND EXPECTED WEST AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. MAY BE
MORE STRATUS ALSO...BUT WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE.

ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
AMOUNT...MOST ARE STILL POINTING TO SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION
INTERACTING WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX TO CREATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS MENTIONED ALREADY SO ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING TO WARM UP NICELY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVE...WILL
DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

MODELS STILL TRACKING AN EMBEDDED LEAD S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING OUT
OF AN ALASKAN LONG WAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. WILL
MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS...AND
DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING NEAR
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE.

BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A STRONGER EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND
DEEPER SURFACE LOW EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH DUE TO
THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE FEATURES. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH
LOOKS COOL...BREEZY...AND WET AT TIMES.

OPTED TO KEEP ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MODELS PORTRAYING WEAK EMBEDDED
ENERGY. DRY MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. COOLER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

A SYSTEM BRUSHES THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SO THE VCSH WAS CONTINUED
AT KJMS. ALSO CONTINUED A VCFG 10-14Z/28TH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR HITTING FOG HARDER WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM



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