Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 261631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1031 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

LATEST TRENDS CONFIRM CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY...WILL
HAVE TO WAIT TIL TONIGHT MOST AREAS. GETTING LIGHT SNOW SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION...BUT MORE THAN FLURRIES.
EXTENDED FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON OTHER AREAS. FREEZING
DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED SOUTHEAST. INCORPORATED
THESE INTO TEH UPDATE AT 1030.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 826 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

ADDED A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS DICKEY
COUNTY BASED ON REPORTS FROM ABERDEEN ON FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALSO NOTED WIND CHILLS NEAR 20 BELOW NORTH
CENTRAL. HAVE FLURRIES MOST PLACES THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE THE NEAR TERM FORECAST CHALLENGING.
FOR EXAMPLE...MINOT CLEARED OUT FOR A COUPLE HOURS AND THEIR
TEMPERATURE BOTTOMED OUT AROUND 5 DEGREES. MEANWHILE...BISMARCK
HAS STAYED OVER 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH OVERCAST STRATUS. MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO UPDATE THE NEAR TERM...AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
CLOUDS TODAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE HIGH...WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND ISOLATED
FLURRIES PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY COULD BE IF THE
SKY WAS CLEAR. PRESSURE RISES GENERATING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15
MPH RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO SOME LOCATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

MODELS STILL DOING POORLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS DECK
PAST DAYBREAK. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS
WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TAKING PLACE LATER TODAY ONCE
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND SUNSHINE EATING AWAY AT THE LOW CLOUDS TOP TO BOTTOM.

WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACKS
TODAY AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH
HIGHS NORTH CENTRAL ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN THIS SAME AREA HAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT THIS MORNING IS THE RETURN OF COLDER
WEATHER TO NORTH DAKOTA.

00 UTC MODELS/ENSEMBLES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF THE POSITIVE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN WITH SHARP RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO ALASKA...AND FULL LATITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT.

FOR NORTH DAKOTA...THAT MEANS AN ALMOST CONSTANT NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WITH A STEADY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY BREAK IN
COLD IS FORECAST BY THE 00 UTC GFS/GEM GLOBAL/ECMWF AND THE 25/12
UTC NAEFS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN A PORTION OF THE
MODEL SUITE. WHILE THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION WITH THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THUS...THE NEW YEAR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 826 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE
THE MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION. ALSO GETTING SOME REPORTS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THAT MAY SPREAD INTO
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...WAA






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