Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181502
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOG HAS DISSIPATED NORTH CENTRAL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BUMPED THE WINDS UP ABOUT 5 MPH TO
15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NAM H850 WINDS OF 35 KTS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEM HANDLED WELL BY NEW
NAM WHICH KEEP THEM ALONG THE BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WEST. WILL WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTION CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH OBBS STARTING
TO COME IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER SHOWING ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







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