Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 010249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. EXPECTING A QUIET EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED JET ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF A BAND OF
SHOWERS THAT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST AND CLEARING SKIES EAST LATE
THIS EVENING. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER 7 PM TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
THE 80S MOST AREAS. WE`VE BEEN RUNNING WITH A WARM BIAS OF 1 TO 2
DEGREES IN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO OPTED TO TRIM MAX TEMPS FROM
CURRENT GUIDANCE AND KEEP HIGHS BELOW 90.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING
CHANGES TO NORTH DAKOTA WEATHER.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS AND SLOWLY
PROPAGATES EASTWARD...HIGHLIGHTED WELL WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PROJECTED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL QPF FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER RANGES FROM
ROUGHLY HALF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST TO TWO INCHES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS COMMENCING THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD


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