Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 121653
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1153 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

LATEST SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALS A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY THAT WILL SUPPORT CU FORMATION THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LAYER IS SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT PRECIP SEEMS
UNLIKELY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE THE CLOUD AND TEMP FORECAST.
LOWERED HIGHS MAINLY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ABOUT 2 TO 3
DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THIS UPDATE WILL CANCEL THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. ALSO ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

HATE TO LEAVE THE DAY SHIFT WITH A PROBLEM RIGHT WHEN THEY COME IN
BUT WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY ALONE FOR THE 7 AM UPDATE. CLOUDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND A FREEZE IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AREAS IN THE FROST ADVISORY OVER THE
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S UNDER THE CLOUD COVER
SO HATE TO CANCEL THE FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ALSO...FREEZE
WARNING VERIFIED WELL ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD WITH ALL REPORTING
STATIONS CURRENTLY FREEZING OR BELOW. TIOGA WAS DOWN TO 23 LAST
HOUR. SO WE CAN NOT CANCEL THIS PORTION OF THE FREEZE WARNING.
THINK THE DAY SHIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP EVERYTHING AROUND 8 AM.
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE BESIDES UPDATING TEMPERATURES WAS TO HOLD
ON TO THE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA A LITTLE LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CURRENT FREEZE/FROST
HEADLINES. EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
EAST. FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S THERE...BUT WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO FALL. THOUGHT ABOUT POTENTIALLY
REMOVING SOME COUNTIES FROM THE HEADLINES...BUT WITH SEVERAL HOURS
STILL TO GO BEFORE SUNRISE...OPTED TO LET THINGS CONTINUE. LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE SEEN CLEARING OR THINNING CLOUDS HAVE RESPONDED BY
QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...SO WOULD RATHER GIVE THINGS A
BIT MORE TIME.

AN H5 TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO KEPT IT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN 30S...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES FOR NOW SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES IN
PLACE THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A WARM-UP NEXT WEEK AND
A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AN 80KT H3 JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT ALONG THE FRONT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL. WILL MAINTAIN THIS
THREAT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
EVENING.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL
FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA
WILL MOVE TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING. VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






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