Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270836
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

STRONG WINDS TODAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...WITH A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY WAS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A STRONGER
SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS OVER
THE BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WYOMING AND COLORADO/UTAH. PLENTY OF UPSTREAM
ENERGY IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE...ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH AROUND 40-45 KNOTS AT H850. ADDED
GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE MINIMAL...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
NOT AN ISSUE. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
MUCH...WITH LOWS FROM THE 25 TO 35 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING AS UPPER
LOW WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGE PUSHES OVER THE
ROCKIES. COOL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BRINGING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING MILD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND. MODELS BRING THE NEXT TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WEST FLOW TONIGHT MAINLY 8-14KTS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO KISN AROUND
16Z AND KDIK AROUND 19Z WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR CIGS SPREAD TO
KMOT AND KBIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND REACHING KJMS BY AROUND
03Z. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT MAINLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








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