Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170558
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS SHOWS A VERY SHARP/DISTINCT LINE BETWEEN
OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND FLURRIES VERSUS A CLEAR SKY. THE CURRENT
LINE EXTENDS FROM SHERWOOD...TO MINOT...TO NEAR WING...AND LINTON.
ALONG AND WEST OF THIS LINE IT IS A SOLID OVERCAST WITH STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. EAST OF
THIS LINE IS CLEAR AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS QUICKLY
APPROACHING ZERO. LOOPING THE SATELLITE SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY
SITUATION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LEVEL FLOW. RH
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING CIGS IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS
WILL BE MADE WITH CLEARING OCCURRING WEST FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION. THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL FURTHER KEEP THE CLOUDS
IN TACT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS
WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS WEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT
AS OMEGA/LIFT CONTINUES IN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO. KEPT CLOUD LINE NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS NOTED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AS THE STRONG
HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURE WE WILL SEE
SOME UNDULATIONS WITH BISMARCK AND MINOT ON THE FRINGE. CURRENTLY
MINOT IS JUST IN THE CLEAR AND 8 DEGREES WHILE BISMARCK IS UNDER
THE CLOUDS AND 17 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WIDESPREAD/SOLID MVFR CIGS AT KISN/KBIS NEXT 24HR. CIGS HAVE ALREADY
LOWERED TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
01Z THURSDAY. KJMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A CLEAR SKY. KMOT WILL
WOBBLE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR...BUT SHOULD FAVOR MORE VFR CONDITIONS
THAN MVFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO A SOLID MVFR
CONDITION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS





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