Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171418

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
918 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016


Issued at 921 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Fine tuned POPs a bit based on latest radar and latest RAP/HRRR
trend. Otherwise the forecast remains in good shape with no major
deviations for the mid morning update.

UPDATE Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The going forecast is on track and was only blended to observed
trends and recent RAP/HRRR guidance through 18 UTC. RAP output
suggests mid-level frontogensis is starting to intensity across
northern SD and southern ND, and will likely become most focused
and intense near midday when the precipitation shield simulated
by rapid-refresh guidance is still expected to be established in
southern ND. The northern edge of the shower activity could end
up near Interstate 94, with drier conditions to the north.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows deep upper low
circulation near the Pacific Northwest with models initializing
very strong jet stream moving well inland. Max 250 mb winds of 165
kts per GFS moving into northern NV and as strong as 120 kts
approaching the Northern Plains. Both global models and high
resolution models are in pretty good agreement in bringing
shortwave trough and associated narrow east-west oriented band of
precipitation into southern ND today. Overall solutions appear
reasonable given strong jet dynamics, strong mid-afternoon
850-700mb frontogenesis and coincident band of isentropic lift
indicated by models, focused across southern ND. Radars in SD
beginning to show some increasing reflectivities as well as of
09Z. The ECMWF appears to be the slowest of the members and keeps
precip closer the SD border, while the NAM is farther north with
higher QPF. CONSShort guidance appeared reasonable, resulting in
increasing pops in today`s forecast to likely category across much
of south central ND. The shortwave trough should move rapidly east
tonight, with showers quickly ending from west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The Northern Plains will initially be under the influence of upper
level cyclonic flow, between upper level low over eastern Canada
and a strengthening ridge over western CONUS. We`ll continue to
carry a slight chance of showers on Tuesday, mainly north, as a
weak wave moves across the region. The upper level ridge axis
reaches ND by Thursday evening resulting in an overall dry pattern
with warming temps. High temps initially near normal in the 40s
and 50s through Thursday will warm to the 50s and 60s Friday,
continuing into the weekend. Right now, Friday looks to be the
warmest day with upper 50s across the north to low/mid 60s south.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail today and tonight, but an
area of showers is forecast to occur roughly along and south of
the Interstate 94 corridor today. Brief MVFR conditions are not
out of the question, especially near the ND-SD state line. That
shower activity will shift east and diminish after 00 UTC.




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