Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 160356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL MORE THAN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES OVER ROLETTE COUNTY DROPPED
QUICKLY AS SKIES CLEARED SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES HERE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT MOST AREAS...BEFORE STARTING TO CLEAR ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM 5 TO 15 ABOVE
WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND. LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WITH HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES CUT OFF LOW SLIDING ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER WITH TROUGH ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASING AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND HIGH SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

ON TUESDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT CLOUDY...THOUGH WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT SOME LATER IN THE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WITH COOLER AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE AREA HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...TEENS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LONG TERM APPEARS RATHER BENIGN.

SPLIT FLOW WILL KEEP ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL (MID 20S THIS
TIME OF YEAR) THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE 30S AND MAYBE LOW
40S. SIMILAR TO LATE LAST WEEK...WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO RATHER CLOUDY AND FOGGY DAYS WITH A LACK OF
ANY REAL DRY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TO VFR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. KJMS
AND KMOT LIKELY TO SEE BREAKS LATE TONIGHT...WHILE REMAINING TAF
SITES CLEARING OUT TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
KDIK AND KISN BY 18 UTC TUESDAY AND KMOT AND KBIS BEFORE 00 UTC
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH






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