Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222033 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
333 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

For the near term, now through sunset, cold front located from
Beach to Bismarck to just north of Jamestown. Temperatures have
warmed into the upper 60s to 70F in south central along and just
ahead of the cold front. Compare this to 34F at Rolla. The cold
front will continue a slow progress to the southern border by 03z
Sunday. SREF 3hr calibrated thunderstorm probabilities increased
to 10 percent south central ND through 00z Sunday. Given the steep
low level lapse rates around 9c/km, most unstable cape around 250
j/kg and weak shear, have continued to mention isolated thunderstorms
along and south of Interstate 94 through 00z. Latest radar shows
isolated showers working into western Morton county and into Grant
county, moving east with time.

For tonight, low level frontogenesis increases across portions of
north central ND. Expecting a moderate band of snow to develop
between 03z-06z, and continue through the night. What appears will
keep this event from reaching advisory level snowfall accumulations
is the fact that the strongest synoptic scale forcing is displaced
from the maximum frontogensis region. In addition, mid level lapse
rates are marginal, around 6 to 6.5C/km. After collaborating with
WPC and Grand Forks weather office, we have decided the best course
of action is a Special Weather Statement for sub advisory snowfall.
Expect snowfall accumulations of between 1 and 3 inches from Minot
southeast to Harvey and Carrington; essentially between the Highway
2 and 52 corridor tonight through Sunday morning.

Morning snow across north central ND, otherwise mostly cloudy and
cooler Sunday with highs around 40F north to the mid 50s far

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Another round of precipitation still slated for Sunday night and
Monday with a northern and southern stream shortwave shifting
through western/central ND. Another inch of snowfall expected for
most of the north central, along with a wintry mix into central
ND Sunday night. Precipitation will change back to rain showers
during the day Monday. Thereafter, generally dry but cool weather
prevails Tuesday through Thursday. Highs in the 40s Tuesday and
Wednesday, then 50s Thursday through Saturday. Chances for
precipitation return Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms expected over
south central ND through 00z, but not enough confidence to mention
VCTS at KBIS/KJMS at this time. Rain will change to snow at KMOT
after 06z Sunday with mvfr cigs/vsbys deteriorating to ifr cigs.
Mvfr to ifr cigs expected elsewhere between 06z-18z Sunday.




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