Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 240851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW DEEPENS AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFIES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH AN UNSTABLE
ELEVATED MOIST LAYER.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATED ZERO PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 4 AM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL
APPEARS TO LINE UP BETWEEN I94 AND HIGHWAY 200...WHERE 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS PINPOINTED FOR THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30
MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AND STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS DURING THE DAY
IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION WILL BE GUSTY EAST WINDS AND A DEVELOPING
RAIN THAT WILL USHER IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
EASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
08Z...THEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO IFR IN RAIN AND BR
AFTER 08Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KBIS/KDIK/KJMS
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VICINITY MENTION.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.