Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 120237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

MAIN CONCERN WITH EVENING UPDATE IS CLOUD COVER AND ITS RELUCTANCE
TO DISSIPATE. REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOW SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS SOON AS SKIES
CLEAR EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP AS HAS HAPPENED OVER
REPORTING STATIONS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID
20S. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY LINGER
AROUND A LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. WITH THAT SAID...THINGS SHOULD START CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZE. THEREFORE...GOING HEADLINES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FREEZE AND FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTH DAKOTA HAS GENERATED ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
BELCOURT TO BISMARCK TO FORT YATES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS
EAST OF THE LINE COULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER EXTENSIVE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...A FREEZE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL ONLY INDICATE SILENT POPS GIVEN THE LOW CERTAINTY
IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS/SUMMARY...PATCHY FROST EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
NORTHWEST AND INTO EAST CENTRAL. DRY AND PLEASANT SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO AFFECT NORTH DAKOTA IS CURRENTLY SEEN
NEAR WHITEHORSE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST SPAWNING A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO CENTRAL MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
AN 80KT H3 JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND EAST
CENTRAL. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS THREAT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
THEN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND WITH
HIGHS RISING INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MIDWEEK WILL FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
RETURNS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>022-031>035-040>045.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ023-025-036-
037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS





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