Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202104
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
304 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 303 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be cold
temperatures through tomorrow, including wind chill headlines
tonight.

Currently, long wave trough over the western and central United
States, with an embedded S/WV trough pushing east across western
North Dakota. A dry and quasi-breezy westerly low level flow
across western and central ND, with sfc high pressure off to our
southeast, results in a dry afternoon with some mid level clouds
across my north along to ahead of the aforementioned shortwave.

Besides the north where a few upper level clouds will advect into
tonight, existing mid level clouds will lift northeast with the
S/WV this evening. Surface high moves slowly east-southeast into
the Central Plains tonight, with a sfc ridge axis extending back
northwest from central SD to eastern MT. This will maintain a
steady westerly sfc flow of around 10 MPH. Combined with lingering
cold air associated with the high pressure (with some additional
CAA north tonight), resultant wind chill temperatures will fall
into the advisory range for much if not all of western and central
ND later this evening and into mid morning Wednesday. Thus will
hoist a wind chill advisory area wide with this product issuance.

Southwesterly flow on Wednesday will see a slight moderation in
temperatures along with dry conditions. Still below average highs
with daytime temperatures in the upper single digits to mid teens,
10-20 degrees below normal for late February.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 303 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Models remain in agreement with maintaining an upper level trough
over the western CONUS through the work week, placing the
Northern Plains in southwest flow aloft. This pattern supports
moderating temperatures into the 20s by the weekend and mostly
dry weather. The exception will be Thur-Thur night when an
embedded wave lifting through the Central Plains will bring with
it an area of precipitation, clipping my southeastern counties.
No impacts expected at this time.

Model uncertainty ramps up for early next week with a variety of
solutions. It does appear to become more active, just to what
degree is the question.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Light snow and MVFR cigs and vsbys at KJMS to linger at KJMS until
around 19z, then conditions improving to VFR. Some MVFR vsbys in
haze reported in western ND may linger at KISN/KDIK into early this
afternoon. Also some scattered stratus clouds at 1500-2500 feet to
linger across all of western and central ND early this afternoon.

By around 21z, expect VFR at all TAF sites this afternoon and
evening.

Later tonight, some lower VFR and MVFR cigs to enter far northern
ND, mainly aft 06z. Confidence is too low at this time to mention at
KISN or KMOT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening to 10
AM CST /9 AM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



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