Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222152
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
352 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA WITH HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK SO WILL LEAVE
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MAINLY RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN IF IT IS
PRECIPITATING WHEN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. SKIES WILL START
CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS IT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND REGION IS BETWEEN SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN...FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP AROUND THE HUDSON BAY. FOR OUR AREA TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN JAMES VALLEY
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SUCH CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE OTHER TWO ARRIVING MONDAY AND
THURSDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN A STEP
BACKWARD AS FAR AS CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT ARE CONCERNED. THE 12
UTC ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEREAS THE GFS AND SREF ARE
SLOWER AND MAINLY DRY. THE NAM INITIALLY KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE
AREA AS THE CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THEN
BRINGS SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DUE TO
THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR
SCENARIO IS RATHER LOW. THEREFORE...KEPT PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 25
PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MOST FAVORED PRECIP TYPE (IF PRECIPITATION
DOES IN FACT FORM) WOULD BE RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FURTHER EAST...A
MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 281. WITH QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...OR
POTENTIALLY NONEXISTENT DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU
BELIEVE...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

LCL -SN/-FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN
QUITE LOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS








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