Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 120347
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
FROM THE NORTH AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ALREADY TRACKED INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A COUPLE MORE WAVES OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS WEAK PVA REMAINS OVER WESTERN ND. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH 20-30 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
TAPERING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WOULD LIKELY BE TRACE AMOUNTS TO MAYBE A HALF
INCH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING AN INCREASING AREA OF LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW IS NOW
BEING REPORTED ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST SO WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY THIS EVENING. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME PICKING UP ON THIS AND GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAR WEST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT. WILL SEE HOW PRECIP EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO BUT MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE AND EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY A HALF
INCH OR LESS...WITH A FEW AREAS MAYBE SEEING UP TO AN INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS RAPIDLY ENDING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN TONIGHT
IN WESTERN ND.

AS OF 21 UTC...THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW IS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND IS PAST BEULAH AT THIS HOUR. THIS TREND LINES UP
WELL WITH A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF SHORT RANGE...HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO BE COMPLETELY GONE
BY 00 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPID REDUCTION IN MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DROVE THE SNOW EARLIER...WHICH OCCURRED AS THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROVE THE THERMAL RESPONSE ALOFT
MOVED INTO SD AND NEB /AS SEEN BY THE DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR VALENTINE...NEB AT MID AFTERNOON/.

TONIGHT...THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE CALLED FOR ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
TO CROSS WESTERN ND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SCENARIO COULD
DRIVE ANOTHER...VERY LIGHT BATCH OF SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE-TYPE
POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO OVER WESTERN ND...AND EVEN SLIGHT-CHANCE
POPS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND. WE DID GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND
TONIGHT SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN PLACES LIKE BOWMAN SHOW THAT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS LAYER WILL BE WARMER
THAN -12 C. HOWEVER...WE HELD OFF INCLUDING THAT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT SINCE VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THE IMPULSE ALOFT MAY YIELD
A FEEDER-SEEDER MECHANISM...AND THUS FLURRIES.

MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...FORECAST LOWS WILL
BE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT PER THE 12 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND WE USED TO BUILD
THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
ROLETTE COUNTY...AND WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH...WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL RUN FROM -20 T0 -30 F THERE.
WE THUS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY FROM 06
TO 18 UTC IN A COLLABORATIVE MOVE WITH THE GRAND FORKS NWS OFFICE.

ON FRIDAY...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN PLACE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 0 AT ROLLA TO 25 AT BOWMAN...BUT THE FORECAST IS DRY
GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL NORTHWEST-FLOW WAVES IN THE
12 UTC MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL SHOTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EMBEDDED S/WV`S WILL TICKLE THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THEY PASS THROUGH
ALOFT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT/TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...WITH ALL LIQUID IN THE WARM SECTOR TO
THE WEST. THE EVENTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MIX WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER
OF THE STATE.

A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO GENERATE ALL SNOW AND MAY
BRING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER EAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ROUGHLY 2-4 INCHES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST MODEL CYCLES.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MILD/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S AND 40S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT 50S WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

BAND OF MVFR-OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUILDS SOUTH AND COULD LIFT
CEILINGS TO VFR...ESPECIALLY AT KMOT AND KJMS. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH VFR CEILINGS SPREAD WEST TO INCLUDE
KISN...KBIS AND KDIK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH


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