Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231412
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
912 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Minor update to the precipitation forecast for today. Rain has
been slow to develop this morning and the latest short-term
guidance indicates a delay in widespread development until later
this afternoon. Adjusted precip chances accordingly.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The majority of thunderstorms moving east of a Fargo-Aberdeen line
this morning. Will however keep small chance of thunderstorms
today for Dickey and Lamoure counties. Otherwise currently a low
point in shower activity until the upstream shortwave currently in
Utah moves rapidly northeast. This will bring increasing chances
for showers this afternoon and more so tonight. Current forecast
looks ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A moderate to heavy precipitation event is in store for much of
central and eastern North Dakota beginning this afternoon and
continuing through the weekend. The broad scale weather features
reveal a significant upper trough over the western US that will
guide and funnel moist air into the northern plains through
Sunday. Scattered showers will be found southwest into central
North Dakota this morning. However by this afternoon and
especially this evening a shortwave will ride up the trough and
provide widespread lift in a strongly baroclinic environment.
Rainfall amounts near 2 inches are forecast for the southeast to
an inch central with lesser amounts northwest.

The heavy rain is supported by the GEFS Mean QPF Ensemble showing
QPF amounts exceeding the 30 year climate period for south central
and southeast North Dakota. Also, GEFS QPF Plumes for the period
7 PM Saturday through 7 PM Sunday have a mean QPF between 1 and 2
inches for the south central and southeast with a half an inch or
less northwest. So high confidence of widespread showers
developing this evening and overnight.

A small area of thunderstorm chances will exist across Dickey and
Lamoure counties today, otherwise only showers are expected. Low
probability of hydrology issues from the rain at this time as its
forecast over a 18 to 24 hour period in an area that should be
able to absorb the rainfall.

Temperatures will be quite cool with highs today from the upper
40s southwest to the upper 50s southeast and lows tonight from 40
to 55.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread showers will linger on Sunday across much of southwest,
central and eastern North Dakota, diminishing Sunday night.
Otherwise, the extended period will see cool temperatures through
mid week with scattered frost chances Monday and Tuesday morning.
Low temperatures fall into the mid 30s west and south central
during that period. Highs Monday and Tuesday should be in the mid
50s to around 60. A slow moderation of temperatures is expected
by the end of the week with highs in the low to mid 60s Wednesday
through Friday with mainly dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued
at 620 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread MVFR ceilings expected to remain across western and
central ND today. Showers will continue to develop from southwest
into central North Dakota during the afternoon and evening.

Conditions may briefly vary from VFR and MVFR ceilings this
afternoon, however more widespread rain showers will develop this
evening and overnight. Conditions expected to become IFR KMOT-
KDIK-KBIS-KJMS with widespread rain showers and fog.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV/waa


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