Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
TRENDS...AND ALSO TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BASED ON SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FROST ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL FOR TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CHANGES WERE TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD FROST...INCREASED FROM PATCHY
AND AREAS...AS WE DO HAVE THE ADVISORY POSTED. CLOUD COVER
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF WAS ZEROED OUT DOWN FROM 10
PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
FROST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. NOT AS COOL BUT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 60 TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK/HIGH OVER LOW...
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 145W/49N...TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

PRIOR TO THE CLOSED LOW...A MID LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN COMES INTO PHASE WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS PROCESS OCCURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE NAM12 AND ECMWF TRY TO DEVELOP A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
POSSIBLE INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850-300MB OMEGA SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND A SLIM AREAL COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME....ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR NOW AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS LOOK AT IT AGAIN. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A 700MB TROUGH
SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RESIDE
FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION...CREEPING NORTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INSTABILITY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICTING DIFFERENT
AREAS OF WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE/SHEAR ARE PRESENT. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE DEPENDING IF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY VIA
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SUPERBLEND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND CONCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC


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