Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181707
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1207 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Cooler and more stable air should end the threat for severe
weather today. Convective allowing models continue to generate
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms south this afternoon
and evening so will continue carrying pops south.

UPDATE Issued at 932 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Cold front has been moving southeast across the state with the
frontal position forecast to be east of the region by noon. A
majority of CAM models suggest a period of low pops across the
area with a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon south of i-4. Updated pops.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Thunderstorms continue to push through the James River Valley with
the strongest storm now located in Stutsman County. For early
morning update have adjusted precipitation chances towards the
current trend. Cold front now appears to be pushing its way well into
southern North Dakota. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Early this Thursday morning a cold front stretched across North
Dakota just north of Interstate 94. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue to fire along and north of the front this
morning as low level convergence remains strong and a potent low
level jet continues to feed moisture over the frontal boundary.

As the front tracks further south it will encounter increasingly
unstable air and more favorable shear. Therefore, thunderstorms
may intensify across southern North Dakota later this morning and
into the afternoon. Strong or even isolated severe storms aren`t
out of the question this morning and afternoon across portions of
far southern North Dakota.

Cooler and drier air will move in from the northwest this morning
and bring an end to precipitation from northwest to southeast
through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

A deep Hudson Bay low is expected to bring a wave through central
Montana Thursday night which will bring showers and scattered
thunderstorms to southwest North Dakota Friday. As this feature
moves across the baroclinic zone left from the recent cold front
more abundant showers and thunderstorms will form but now mainly
along and south of the North Dakota border Friday.

Cooler and drier air will spread south into the region Friday and
Saturday. Highs will be in the 60s and lower 70s both days.
Additionally morning low temperatures will feel quite brisk with
readings in the 40s. This will be followed by a slow moderating
trend next week into the 70s and 80s. The chance for precipitation
will be low through next Tuesday when a slight chance of
thunderstorms arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

A cold front continues to moves east into Minnesota as high
pressure builds into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Generally vfr or
becoming vfr this afternoon. Then MVFR retuning with sct showers
to KDIK after 12z Friday.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC



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