Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1246 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017


Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

The inherited forecast remains in good shape through the remainder
of tonight. Adjusted hourly trends with latest observations and
near term guidance. Still expect increasing chances for
precipitation far southwest and far south central late.

UPDATE Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

As the warm front has moved east this evening the lower clouds
have pretty much cleared out of the James River Valley. Scattered
high thin clouds remain over the west and central. Warm advection
should limit temperatures from falling much tonight east. Current
forecast looks good with increasing clouds far west and a slight
chance of rain by morning southwest.

UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

This Wednesday evening a warm frontal boundary had progressed
through central North Dakota resulting in decreasing clouds
across the northwest. Temperatures had warmed into the middle 50s
late this afternoon over much of west central and southwest North
Dakota. Meanwhile stratus cloud cover and cool temperatures in
the lower 30s remained in place across the James River valley.
Mainly scattered to broken high clouds covered the central and
west. Gusty southerly winds should extend into the evening hours
across the James River valley otherwise the winds will diminish
west and central. Updated the sky cover to account for less cloud
cover northwest otherwise forecast trending ok.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Precipitation chances late tonight through Thursday highlight the
short term forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites and the 19 UTC RAP are in agreement on a
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest CONUS deep trough to
propagate into the Northern Plains late tonight through Thursday.
Overall forcing is aided by jet coupling between a jet streak
across northeast Montana into southern Canada, and the jet across
Colorado and New Mexico in to the southern portions of the
Northern Plains. Did significantly reduce the mention of freezing
rain for Thursday morning from the previous forecast as the 12 UTC
NAM/GFS bufr soundings depict rather dry air in the 800-700mb
layer Thursday morning that will limit significantly how much
liquid precipitation may be able to reach the ground in a narrow
temporal window with favorable surface temperatures for freezing

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global models are in agreement on split flow across the
Northern Plains Friday and Saturday transitioning to quasi-zonal
Sunday into Monday before an upper level ridge potentially builds
across the region by Tuesday. This overall favors above normal
temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s and sporadic, weak
precipitation events.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Low pressure approaching from the west will bring lower ceilings
and rain to some locations. Near freezing temperatures around the
12Z to 15Z time period could result in some light freezing rain
in central ND, but confidence remains limited in timing and
extent, as a relatively small area between KBIS and KJMS would be
affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with exception of
KJMS where MVFR cigs are expected by 21Z.


Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

In response to increased releases from Alameda Reservoir, Lake
Darling will increase its releases to 1000 CFS by Thursday, with
the potential for further increases next week. This will cause the
Souris River downstream of Lake Darling near Foxholm to rise but
remain just below flood stage. As this pulse of water travels
further downstream where greater ice cover remains on the Souris
River, ice break up will have to be closely monitored.
Furthermore, snowmelt will be on the increase with a sustained
period of above normal temperatures late this week and through
next week. While soil moisture was high across the Souris Basin
going into the winter, early snow insulated the ground, preventing
much frost from forming. Thus, some uncertainty remains as to how
much melt from the snowpack will infiltrate into the ground
versus runoff and reach the river, streams and coulees.




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