


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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355 FXUS63 KBIS 122325 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of smoke will linger in parts the James River Valley through the night. Otherwise, dry with a warming trend through the weekend. - Turning cooler north on Monday but remaining hot south. Highs ranging from the mid 70s far north to the mid 90s far south. - Medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Monday night, some storms could be strong to severe. - Notably cooler mid-week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The wildfire smoke continues to push to the east. The James River Valley and north are still dealing with 6 mile visibility or less. Conditions will improve overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Areas of near-surface smoke have cleared out of western North Dakota, and will continue to clear out of central ND through the afternoon. Smoke may linger through tonight over eastern parts of the state, potentially including parts of the James River Valley. Other than a glancing blow Sunday afternoon near the Turtle Mountains as smoke slides through northeastern ND, smoke free skies should then prevail through at least Sunday night. For tonight, a windshift boundary will pass through the state from northwest to southeast. CAMs suggest a few returns may accompany this boundary. However, model forecast soundings present very dry air near the surface, therefore expect most any returns to be virga or sprinkles at best. As a result, maintaining a lack of mentionable PoPs at this time. For Sunday, another dry day is expected. Surface low pressure to the west with high pressure to the southeast should generate breezy winds mainly for the eastern half of the state during the afternoon. Warmer conditions are also expected with highs ranging from the low 80s far north to the upper 80s southeast and near 90 southwest. Mostly dry conditions are then favored Sunday night through Monday afternoon. That said, a quasi-stationary west to east frontal boundary may set-up near the Canadian border during this timeframe. If so, showers, potentially with a few rumbles of thunder, will be possible in northern ND. In addition, there will be a sharp temperature gradient as a result of this boundary. At this time, the deterministic NBM produces highs mainly in the mid 70s north of Highway 2 to the low 90s near the ND/SD border. Any shift in the set-up of this boundary further north or south will moderately impact highs for any given location in the state, as well as which locations may see showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Late Monday afternoon and evening is when more impactful weather may return. As the aforementioned quasi-stationary frontal boundary begins dipping southward as a cold front, the potential for severe weather could increase. The couple CAMs that go through Monday afternoon are already hinting at thunderstorm development in the very late afternoon. Both SPC and CSU Machine learning have introduced a marginal risk for severe weather Monday for much of the state, with CSU also introducing a narrow ribbon of slight from western SD into south central ND. Beyond Monday, expect much cooler temperatures for the remainder of the workweek. Wednesday is favored to be the coolest day of the week with highs mostly in the 60s, although NBM ensemble 25th/75th temperature spreads remain fairly large and in excess of 10 degrees. With the "deterministic" NBM forecasting above the 50th percentile, there is plenty of room for an even cooler day Wednesday. Other than cooler temperatures, occasional showers and thunderstorms are possible through the workweek with severe weather chances generally low at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR in the west and central. Areas of wildfire smoke are reducing visibilities in the east, including KJMS. This should last through the late evening. Winds will be calm and variable tonight before becoming northwest and breezy Sunday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Smith