Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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880
FXUS63 KBIS 280551
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1251 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Quiet weather remains over our area as rain showers have pushed
off to the east. Some cloud cover has pushed into the southwest,
which has been addressed in late night update.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Line of showers with gusty winds is about to push out of the far
southeast portion of the forecast area in the next hour. Mesoscale
models have been overdoing the precipitation associated with the
wrap around moisture dropping into the forecast area from the
north late this afternoon and tonight. Latest RAP looks to be
catching on with a dry forecast for the remainder of the night.
This is what was in our previous forecast and will continue.

Did lower min temperatures just a little tonight over the
southwest for Sunday morning. Should be a clear to partly cloudy
night with good radiational cooling, if winds diminish enough.
Appears to be a bit more of a gradient than last night so a
little hesitant to drop temperatures much lower than guidance.

Updated text products will be out shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Classic inverted V sounding at Bismark this evening. Small fall-
rise pressure couplet with strong subsidence behind a shortwave
trough is combining with this favored environment for strong
winds with convection, to produce gusty winds as high as 60 mph
this afternoon across central ND. These conditions will continue
through early evening from south central ND into the James River
Valley. Thunderstorms have been isolated but with a slightly more
unstable environment over the James River Valley, we could still
see an increase in thunderstorm coverage for a few hours yet this
evening before convection moves out of the area. Have updated
pops/sky cover and winds based on latest satellite and radar
imagery. Winds drop off pretty quickly behind the line of
convection moving through the area. There is a secondary surge of
higher winds pushing from Saskatchewan into northwest ND at this
time but not confident this will continue to spread much farther
south into the forecast area tonight as we lose daytime heating
and winds decouple. Updated products will be sent shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A vigorous short wave was moving out of Southeast Saskatchewan and
into the north-central North Dakota with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected as low
level moisture is low. That dry low level (inverted V sounding) is
contributing to very gusty winds with the showers, as high as 50
mph. The subsidence behind the wave is strong and the timing would
end convection by 11 PM CDT with a quickly clearing sky to just
high cirrus. The wind was diurnally driven and too will quickly
drop off this evening.

For Sunday, similar. Diurnally driven winds increasing and under
cyclonic mid level flow look for convection again in the
afternoon. With no well defined mid level wave there should be
more distance between the showers on Sunday and they should be
more confined to the central and eastern parts of the forecast
area. temperatures, in a slightly cooler airmass, about 5 degrees
lower than today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Memorial Day looks partly sunny and cooler as the area remains
under the influences of cyclonic flow, and is deeper into the
cooler surface airmass. By mid week H5 ridging begins to nose in
over the area with temperatures back consistently into the 70s and
likely around 80 by weeks end. The ridge shows signs of breaking
down for next weekend with decent chances, we will see, of showers
and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Although vfr cigs/vsbys will continue through this TAF period,
another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
occur from 18z Sunday through 02Z Monday. Main hazard will be brief
gusty winds, possibly to 50kt at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS during the above
time period. Outside of any showers/thunderstorms, expect northwest
winds sustained at 20kt with gusts to 32kt from 18z through sunset
Sunday evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS



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