Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 300550
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER THE NE/CO
BORDER. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT SHOWERS FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWARD AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
09Z. AFTER 15Z THE STACKED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.