Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171441
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
941 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures today, with some morning flurries.

- Much warmer Monday and becoming windy. Fire weather concerns
  start to develop.

- Cooldown through mid-week.

- Snow chances (~50-70 percent) late Wednesday night into
  Thursday. Greatest chances from northwest through south
  central North Dakota including the James River Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Limited updates needed this morning. Abundant cloud cover
continues to linger across central and eastern portions. Under
these lower clouds are flurries to brief light snow showers.
Impacts have been minimal with these, so have left in flurry
mention through the morning. If low clouds persist into the
afternoon, which is possible in the east, perhaps flurries can
linger too. For now kept the afternoon dry and will continue to
monitor trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track for a
cooler day with some breezy winds at times across the south and
east.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Low clouds with flurries continue to stream through much of the
area, with high clouds streaming over the west. For morning
update have increased cloud cover a bit in the west, mainly to
address the high cloud cover moving over.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Current surface analysis places low over eastern Ontario with
high settling through Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis shows
Ontario low stacked, with high over the Pacific northwest into
the Canadian Rockies. Fast northerly flow remains over the
northern plains into the midwest. Over our area, a broad area of
low cloud cover remains over much of the area, with a little
very light snow falling over various locations.

For today, low clouds will linger some in the early morning
before starting to clear out late morning into the early
afternoon. Scattered flurries will remain under the cloud cover.
Otherwise, a rather cool day is expected remaining a bit breezy
over eastern and southern locations. Surface high settles
through our area overnight, with winds going light in the
evening, becoming a bit southerly over western areas late as the
high continues to settle to the southeast.

On Monday, upper flow becomes more northwesterly with the ridge
to the west shifting, while a surface low passes to our north.
Southwesterly to westerly winds will usher in a much warmer
airmass into the area, with temperatures returning to well above
average. Pressure gradient tightens up some with this system
with a breezy/windy day expected, with winds shifting northwest
in the afternoon/evening. This does stir up some fire weather
concerns given the dryness of the airmass, with humidity values
dipping into the 20s over many locations, greatest concerns at
this point over the southwest.

A gradual cooling trend then develops going into mid-week as the
ridge to the west deamplifies, and a potent wave swinging
around a western Hudson Bay low passes to our northeast. Still
some question on how much of a cool-down this will be as NBM
still has about a 10-15 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentile.

Chances for snow then enter the forecast late Wednesday into
Thursday as a surface low deepens over eastern Wyoming into the
Black Hills area before passing east-southeast, and a potent
short wave passes through the area. NBM has been rather
confident with this system, bringing about a 50-70 percent
chance of snow to our area, greatest chances from northwest
through south central North Dakota into the James River Valley.
Will have to watch closely how this evolves and possibly shifts
because at this time NBM is showing a 30-50 percent chance of
seeing 4 inches or more over the aforementioned greatest
chances area.

Thereafter we remain in a rather active pattern, but latest
model/cluster analysis really shows that pinpointing any
individual snow event is impossible, but given the active
pattern snow chances with cool temperatures will remain in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Widespread low cloud cover with scattered flurries remains over
central and parts of northwestern North Dakota which is right
at the cusp of MVFR/low end VFR. Expect this to gradually lift
and dissipate later this morning into mid-day, with widespread
VFR by afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS


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