Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 232031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
331 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Main concern in the short term are elevated non-severe thunderstorms
late tonight in the far southwest, then isolated chances of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon in parts of western and central
ND...possibly severe.

Currently, surface high pressure was over the eastern Dakotas with
the upper level ridge over the Front Range/western Plains of Canada
and the northern US. Regarding smoke aloft from Montana and Canadian
fires, sat pics and web cams not showing any tangible evidence of
smoke aloft (like we saw yesterday from satellite pics).

Tonight a shortwave in the flow aloft is forecast to move east
across Wyoming and southern Montana this evening, and across SD and
far southern ND late tonight and Monday. Expect isolated elevated
thunderstorms associated with this feature in ND.

More concerning is a cold front moving into western ND Monday
afternoon. This feature is associated with a stacked low pressure
system moving from central Alberta eastward into central
Saskatchewan. A low level jet is forecast to develop up the US
Plains well northward into central Canada. Most of the energy with
this system should reside in Canada, but enough instability with
projected CAPE values over 2000 J/Kg along the surface cold front
for SPC to continue a marginal risk for severe storms over ND. Thus
at this time isolated storms - possibly severe - over
western/central ND mid-afternoon and becoming a bit more numerous in
central/eastern ND Monday evening. Best chances of precipitation
over north central ND during the evening.

Along and ahead of the cold front we expect temperatures to climb
into the 90s across western and most of central ND, with upper 90s
in the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Monday night into early Tuesday morning thunderstorms may linger in
parts of south central ND into the eastern part of the state as an
upper level impulse moves across the ND/SD border Monday
night/Tuesday in the wake of the surface cold front.

The strong low pressure system continues moving east across
central/northern Manitoba into Ontario Tuesday/Tuesday night.
This will bring a dry day to western and central ND Tuesday with
westerly winds behind the cold front. Not confident regarding
strength of winds or how low relative humidity values will be
Tuesday...but this will need to be monitored for possible fire
weather concerns.

Upper level ridging builds again over the Rockies. Some shortwaves
move through the flow from time to time, bringing some slight
chances for showers/thunderstorms Thursday. Looking at seasonable
temperatures Tuesday through next weekend with highs mainly in the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The one
potential exception could be KJMS which is closer to the stratus
which pivoting through parts of eastern North Dakota. The latest
visible satellite imagery shows cellular cumulus in the KJMS area
with the KJMS observation showing a few clouds just above 3KFT. A
few thunderstorms could move in southwest North Dakota / northwest
South Dakota overnight which could bring some increase in mid and
high level clouds especially to southern terminal locations. High
level smoke could also move into western North Dakota this evening,
potentially spreading into the central parts of the state overnight.




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