Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 150618
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1218 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Forecast on track with temperatures below zero all areas of western
and central ND, and wind chills were in the -37F to -18F. Expect
temps to continue to drop as arctic high and cold advection
continues. Wind chill advisory in the far west and wind chill
warning for the rest of the state seem valid.

UPDATE Issued at 940 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Current forecast looks ok. Wind chill temperatures now close to 40
below across the north and will fall to near 40 below south
overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Clouds slowly decreasing as low level dry air advances into the
region. Strong cold advection seems to be playing a role in a
more persistent strato cu deck across the east. Will keep clouds
in the James River Valley most of the night. Have a few flurries
reported here and there east of a Bismarck to Minot line but with
the areas of blowing snow, flurries seem irrelevant for the next
hour or two. Main change was to keep clouds in the James river
valley tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Forecast highlights for the short term period will be cold
temperatures and dangerous wind chills.

Currently, Arctic cold front has pushed through the Northern
Plains, with gusty northwest winds and strong CAA across the
region in its wake. Rapid clearing continues over western North
Dakota with lingering low stratus clouds and light snow showers
along to east of the highway 83 corridor this afternoon. Falling
temperatures all locations.

Arctic high pressure builds across eastern Montana & western North
Dakota tonight. Will have a clear sky west by 00Z, and expect
lingering low stratus central to also scatter/clear out this
evening. Lingering clouds over my eastern counties expected as an
area of PVA moves south across the Red River Valley bringing some
mid level clouds with it. Strong cold air advection continues
with all locations falling to well below zero this evening, and
down into the teens below overnight. East of the surface high,
gradient forcing will maintain breezy northwesterly winds
tonight, especially across central and eastern areas of the state.
Combined with the cold temperatures, dangerous wind chills will
result, as low as 45 below across much of ND. Weaker winds over
my west near the sfc high so wind chills not as cold there.

Arctic airmass remains across the region through Monday/Monday
night. Highs Monday -5 to -15, lows Monday night -20 to -30. High
pressure remains quasi-stationary through the day Monday, then
slides south-southeast into central South Dakota Monday night.
Thus winds remain in the 10-20 MPH range during the day Monday
over all but the west, stronger perhaps even east with gusts
remaining in the 20-30 MPH range. Winds slacken off Monday night
though most locations will still see a 5-10MPH wind. Resultant
wind chills will remain in the 30s below to  low/mid 40s below
both Monday into Monday night. Thus after coordination with
neighbors will upgrade the advisory for all but the far west to a
wind chill warning, will start all headlines at 00Z this evening,
and will have all headlines expire 18Z Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Tuesday and onwards through the rest of work week, a strong
warming trend will commence as ridging builds into the region
mid-week followed by a progressive zonal flow pattern through
Friday. Widespread highs in the 30s are forecast both Thursday
and Friday along with a few lower 40s southwest. A southwest flow
then materializes next weekend, which should keep at least normal
temperatures in the area. Both the GFS/ECMWF keep precipitation
chances mainly to our south Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Main hazards to aviation will be occasional MVFR conditions in
clouds and vsbys due to blowing snow at KJMS until around mid
afternoon. Scattered stratus at various cig heights seen on latest
satellite pics at midnight cst with some clouds at 900-1000 ft...and
others at the 2000-3500 ft level. Expect KBIS and KMOT to see mainly
scattered conditions, but occasional MVFR ceilings possible until
sunrise. Otherwise VFR at KISN and KDIK with arctic high pressure
continuing to push into the region.

Northwest winds today becoming light and variable Monday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ002>005-010>013-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-045>048-050-051.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



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