Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 101448
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS WEST DIMINISHING SO FAR THIS MORNING. LIMITED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO A CAP WITH WEAK
MID LEVEL APSE RATES. TRIMMED POPS BACK THROUGH THE MORNING
CENTRAL AND EAST. WAITING FOR COLD FRONT IN EASTERN MONTANA TO
KICK THINKS OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND ARE STARTING TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING TO COMPENSATE FOR THESE MOVING IN A LITTLE EARLIER AND
FASTER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
RAP/HRRR ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING THESE STORMS INTO
WESTERN ND AND PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ND. MEANWHILE...A
DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH SHORTWAVE
ROTATING TOWARD BASE OF TROUGH SUPPORTS COLD FRONT POISED TO ENTER
NW ND AROUND 00Z. MODELS INDICATE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT...THOUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES NORTHERN ND WHILE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR MORNING
CONVECTION DEPARTS EASTERN ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN
PLACE WHICH WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. SPC HAS PLACED SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND
AND REFERENCES CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS TO SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF STATE BY 12Z AND WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

ON FRIDAY...SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE MORNING....OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND STARTS SHIFTING EAST
WHILE MODEST SHORT WAVE PUSHES IN.

FOR SATURDAY...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS SFC LOW WORKS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHILE A
FEW WAVES WRAP THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER LOW ALONG THE
WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY DEEPENS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL TAPER IN
THE EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. GREATEST CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED HUDSON BAY LOW AS IT TAKES A DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND GEM ARE NOW STARTING TO TAKE
A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE LOW...WHICH WOULD PULL MORE COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

AT 9 AN CDT...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ACROSS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR EXPECTCE TODAY. FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILLBE BETWEEN KISN-KMOT AFTER 21Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA





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