Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221615

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1115 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Updated to include chances for rain across the far north through
the afternoon. The weak upper level wave continues to keep most
rain north of the border however the latest HRRR runs do show
isolated chances of rain moving across the north through the
afternoon and into tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 903 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Clouds have spread across west and central North Dakota with light
radar returns across the far northwest. So far mainly Virga has
been the result. Will keep pops lined up as per previous forecast.
Surface temperatures are above freezing so freezing rain no
longer a threat. Current forecast ok so far.

UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Warm advection showers are just working their way into far
northwest ND just about an hour ahead of forecast so adjusted pops
just a bit across the far north. Mid and high level clouds extend
into southern ND so bumped up sky cover a little across the south
this morning. Temperatures dropped lower than forecast across the
central portion of the state but are now beginning to rise.
Updated latest sensible weather elements and interpolated to mid
morning temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Seasonable to mild temperatures today and tonight. Breezy with a
chance of showers across northern portions of the forecast area.

Latest WV loop indicates a shortwave near the WA/OR border in the
Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will propagate quickly eastward
across the Northern Rockies this morning and into north central
Montana by this afternoon. This will induce a surface low over
the Mondak area this afternoon, moving into central ND this
evening. Breezy south to southeast winds will develop over the
forecast area by this afternoon, then shift northwest from west
to east late this afternoon and this evening behind the surface
low. Decent 85h winds of 25 to 35kts on the back side of the low
tonight will likely not reach the surface as we decouple with the
loss of surface heating, but winds will likely remain breezy
through the night, especially along and east of Highway 83.

There is a very tight precipitation gradient associated with the
mid level forcing, with the majority of the qpf remaining just
north of the International Border. We will likely see a good
chance of showers with some light qpf right along the border, but
precipitation chances will quickly tail off as you head south with
little or no precipitation expected south of the Highway 2

Mild today across most of the CWA, with highs generally in the
upper 50s to middle 60s. A little cooler over the far northern
tier counties with abundant cloud cover. Highs here will remain
in the lower 50s.

Wrap around moisture on the back side of the low will keep a
chance of showers across the north central tonight. Colder air
does not really begin to drop south until after midnight so any
lingering precipitation will remain liquid except perhaps a brief
mix of rain and snow over the Turtle Mountains toward daybreak.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Cooler conditions are expected Sunday behind the exiting low
pressure system, with highs in the 50s.

Dry and mild as upper level ridging develops over the area Monday
into Monday night ahead of a closed upper low over the eastern
Pacific. Energy propagating around this system splits into two
waves with one tracking through southern Canada and another
farther south that lifts into the central plains on Tuesday. There
are some model differences in the tracks of each of these systems
but it does look like an increasing chance of showers Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. Upper level Ridging again
builds over the region behind these two waves, bringing mild and
mainly dry conditions through the remainder of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

At 6 AM CDT...high pressure extended from Saskatchewan/Manitoba
southward across the eastern Dakotas into the central Plains. Low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies will move east as a
cold front today...reaching the western Dakotas early this
afternoon. Southeast winds ahead of the front will become
northwesterly. Expect VFR cigs at KISN-KMOT today. May see some late
night MVFR cigs at KISN-KMOT with VFR at southern TAF sites.




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