Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
223 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing
showers south today into this evening.

Currently...mid level frontogensis coupled with upper level
divergence continues to result in a band of mainly light rainfall
over far southern ND this afternoon. The northern edge of the
shower activity should remain mainly south of Interstate 94, with
drier conditions to the north. Aforementioned forcing mechanisms
will move east this evening quickly ending chances for showers
from west to east.

Upper level trough aloft will maintain a chance of showers tonight
and Tuesday, though nothing impactful. CAA across the north on
Tuesday will result in daytime highs in the 40s near the Canadian
border, low 60s farther south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The Northern Plains will be under the influence of a long wave
trough through Thursday, resulting in seasonable temperatures for
our region. Surface high pressure should also maintain a mainly
dry forecast Tuesday night - Thursday. Upper level ridging will
then build into the region for the remainder of the extended
period resulting in a continued dry pattern with moderating
temperatures into the weekend. Overall no impactful weather


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A period of MVFR CIGS will impact northern areas of the state
early to mid Tuesday morning, including KISN-KMOT. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. An area of
showers will continue to impact areas along and south of the
Interstate 94 corridor through early this evening.





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