Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130342
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
942 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Clipper has pushed well into the area, with very gusty winds being
reported in far northwest North Dakota both by observations and by
spotter reports. Have gone ahead and extended the wind advisory
into that area and pushed it into effect earlier. Gusty winds will
continue to spread across the area. As for precipitation, spotters
have reported no precipitation so far over the west with cloud
bases remaining quite high. Therefore, will keep precipitation
chances on the low side.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Clipper is about to move into the area, with increasing westerly
to southwesterly winds ahead of the system. High clouds continue
to stream in ahead of the system, so have increased cloud cover
through the evening. Otherwise, previous forecast looks on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

A clipper will move through North Dakota tonight. It will arrive
in northwest North Dakota late this evening, and exit south
central North Dakota by early Wednesday morning. Strong pressure
rises, cold air advection and and a well mixed layer will result
in windy conditions late tonight and tomorrow. West to northwest
winds will increase to around 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
overnight and remain strong through the early afternoon hours
Wednesday.

In terms of precipitation, the latest 12z global model runs and
short term high-res models depict less moisture than earlier
runs. Soundings show a wintry mix possible from the Turtle
Mountains south into the James River Valley tonight. However, with
only very light amounts possible, impacts should be minimal.
Further west, temperatures should be warm enough through most of
the night to keep any precipitation that does develop in the form
of rain. Light freezing rain and/or snow are possible across
portions of northern and central North Dakota Wednesday morning as
dry air aloft moves in and limits ice production. However, with
very little lift within the low level saturated layer generally
only a shallow stratus layer is expected with perhaps patchy light
precipitation at times.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

The long term remains active with successive clippers resulting in
periods of gusty winds and continued chances for precipitation.

Another clipper in the northwest flow aloft will sweep through
Wednesday night/Thursday. Winds will not be as strong, and
precipitation looks to be mainly in the form of light snow.
Central ND could see less than inch through Thursday morning.
Another break in the weather Thursday night into Friday morning,
followed by the next clipper Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning, and another late Sunday into Monday.

Beyond this long term period, the weather pattern is still trending
much colder towards the end of next week. More on this in future
discussions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

MVFR cigs will develop later tonight as a cold front pushes from
northwest to southeast. Increasing west to northwest winds around
30 knots will develop from 00z-06z Wednesday. There will be a
brief period of low level wind shear as the front moves through
during this time.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Wednesday for NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS


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