Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271956
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER MICHIGAN WHILE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. BROAD
AREA OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND OPEN INTO THE FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN.

ON MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA AND
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
SOME...THOUGH STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING WEATHER
PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
(HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS WEAK IMPULSES ARE
INEVITABLY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS
PERIOD DRY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY (MID/UPPER 70S TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
JAMES VALLEY TO LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST) TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS





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