Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 132027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FOR
MONDAY.

AS OF 20 UTC...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
WILL BE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PRIMARILY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS BRUSHING THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH NAEFS/GEFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO AVOID THE BUILT IN
CLIMATOLOGY OF THE STATISTICAL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. JAMESTOWN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SETTING A RECORD LOW HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY. SHOWN BELOW IS A FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE TABLE FOR MONDAY JULY 14.

LOCATION........FORECAST.......RECORD

BISMARCK.........67............57 1884
MINOT............66............62 1958
JAMESTOWN........66............68 1937
DICKINSON........68............60 1958
WILLISTON........69............63 1912

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP CYCLONE OVER
ONTARIO WILL LIFT OUT WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW RIDGING TO REPLACE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. AFTER THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ALSO
ADVERTISE A SHIFT FROM THE SEMI-PERMANENT NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ONTARIO UPPER LOWS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CONUS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE BROAD LOW DIRECTING THOSE SHORTWAVES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AS A RESULT OF THAT CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014


VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 18 UTC CYCLE.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH
SUNSET. MVFR STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS MANITOBA AS OF 18 UTC MAY
BRUSH KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD







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