Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 231438
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE LARGE CLOUD MASS
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
DAY. LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODELS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MAKING THEIR
WAY NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. LOW
CLOUDS IN HETTINGER HAVE SCATTERED OUT...BUT EXPECT THAT WITH TIME
THEY WILL COVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AS PER THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT
TERM MODELS - INCLUDING THE NAM - INDICATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A LOOK AT THE BOWMAN RADAR INDICATES LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND SUSPECT
RADAR IS PICKING UP ON MID CLOUDS AND/OR VIRGA IN THE AREA.
LIFTING GOING ON IN THE LOW/MID ATMOSPHERE BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
YIELD PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. THE GFS REMAINS VERY
AGGRESSIVE AND IS OVER- FORECASTING THE PRECIPITATION. MINOR
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES...BUT BASICALLY CHANCES ARE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94...PERHAPS A BIT
BETTER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MEDORA/BEACH AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

BETTER LIFTING AND STRONGER FORCING BEGINS THIS EVENING.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. CURRENT RAP / HRRR SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
TIMING FOR THIS UPDATE. MAINLY BLENDED CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO MFVR WITH RAIN AT
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CLOSER
TO 12Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ



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