Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 241952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.