Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 100638
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1238 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The going forecast is on track and only minor adjustments were
made with this update, mainly to reflect the position of the low
clouds which extend from Lake Sakakawea southeast into Bismarck
and Mandan as of 0630 UTC. HRRR simulations have been assimilating
those clouds well, but then quickly dissipating them by their one-
hour forecast. Thus, we relied on satellite trends that suggest
the clouds may linger into the morning for the forecast.

Otherwise, the wind chill advisory continues as even low wind
speeds are causing wind chills of 25 to 40 below zero given the
very cold ambient air temperatures occurring as the Arctic high
drifts through eastern ND.

UPDATE Issued at 937 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Current forecast looking ok. The temperatures are quite variable
as the arctic air sits on the deep snow cover and any puff of
wind changes the temperature. Clouds off of the the lake still
haven`t reached Bismarck but get close before they fade away. So
far it seems the boundary layer winds may be to week to carry the
clouds to Bismarck.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Arctic high pressure centered near Minot this Friday evening will
drift southeast to western Minnesota by Saturday morning. Lee side
cyclogenesis across the high plains of Montana and Wyoming tonight
will then appear as low pressure which tracks across South Dakota
during the day Saturday into Saturday night. This will spread
light snow across North Dakota from west to east on Saturday.

The high pressure are will also keep skies clear over all but far
western North Dakota this evening allowing temperatures to fall
into the mid 20s below zero north central to 10 to 20 below
elsewhere. This, combined with 5 to 10 mph winds should easily send
the wind chills to 25 to 40 below tonight. Current forecast looks
like its trending ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Dangerous wind chills tonight and Saturday morning, along with some
widespread light snowfall Saturday and Saturday night are the main
concerns in the short term forecast. A wind chill advisory will
again be needed for tonight through Saturday morning.

Arctic high pressure was centered over southern Saskatchewan, with
its axis extending southeastward across ND into eastern SD and
southern MN. Current temperatures remain below zero in most areas of
western and central ND. Visible sat pics show lake effect clouds
forming and moving south of the Lake across parts of Mercer, Oliver,
and Morton counties with a northerly wind close to the surface
taking the clouds south from the lake.

Regarding temperatures and wind chills:
Tonight the arctic high center is forecast to move southeast and
settle over central and eastern ND by late tonight/daybreak Saturday
morning. Expecting overnight lows from 20 to 25 below over north
central ND into the northern James River Valley. Increasing cloud
cover is expected overnight in the southwest as the next system
develops over the Rockies and approaches the Dakotas. Thus looking
at lows from 10 to 15 below mainly south and west of the Missouri
River. Light winds near the high center and southeast winds of 5 to
10 mph developing in the southwest will still produce wind chill
values in the 25 to 40 below zero range. Therefore will issue a wind
chill advisory for tonight through Saturday morning for all of
western and central ND.

Regarding snowfall potential:
A broad upper level open wave moves east across the Rockies today
and tonight, with the main trough axis moving east across the
Dakotas and central plains states late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. At the surface - a large surface low develops over the
central Rockies and emerging into the central plains around
Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska by Saturday evening...then developing into
the Kansas/Oklahoma area by Sunday morning.

North Dakota should be on the northern and western edge of the
snowfall impact of this system...with the main impact affecting
southern Minnesota/Iowa and into the Great Lakes. The latest
indications are for light snow to begin over western ND around
daybreak Saturday morning, then spreading east across the state
Saturday and Saturday night, and lingering in the Turtle Mountains
and James Valley Sunday morning. Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
are forecast for western and central ND. The most favored area for 2-
3 inches of snowfall extends in a swath from Williston/Watford City
to Minot/Bismarck to Rugby/Jamestown/Oakes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Frigid temperatures look to be the main story next week with small
snow chances from time to time.

The next arctic cold front moves through ND late Sunday night
through Monday. Brisk winds and steady temperatures near or below
zero will bring another day of dangerous wind chills to our area
Monday through Tuesday morning. Yet another reinforcing shot of
arctic air is forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday, then again
Thursday/Friday. Look for overnight lows below zero each night.
Sunday high temperatures are expected to range from zero to 15
above...but Monday through Friday highs look to range from 5 below
to 5 above zero.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Vfr conditions begin the TAF period for all terminals except at KBIS
where stratus and associated ifr/mvfr cigs that developed along the
Missouri River have filtered over the terminal. This is expected to
continue with mid level clouds increasing from west to east through
18z Saturday. One wave of light snow will develop and produce mvfr
cigs across the terminals after 12z Saturday. A secondary area of
light snow is forecast after 00z Sunday which will further reduce
vsbys into ifr/mvfr range for the terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



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