Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230701
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
101 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...

Issued at 100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The inherited forecast remains on track. Modified sky cover based
on latest sat imagery. Western edge of the stratus/fog continues
to slowly push back east as westerly low level flow develops
east across western into parts of central North Dakota behind a
sfc trough. Removed Burke and Mountrail counties from the Dense
Fog Adv as conditions have improved there. Other counties continue
to report fog and/or web cams indicate such. Anticipate dropping
more counties on the western fringe of the adv with the next
couple of updates. May need fog headlines across my far east but
will decide that closer to 12Z.


UPDATE Issued at 937 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Forecast thinking remains the same for the remainder of the
overnight per observed trends through 03 UTC and the rapidly
updating suite through its 03 UTC iteration. Did add a mention of
fog and increased cloud cover northwest and north central into the
afternoon tomorrow. An expanse of stratus and fog  across
Saskatchewan and Alberta late this evening is forecast to
propagate southeast into northern North Dakota Tuesday morning
and into the afternoon per RAP/HRRR trends.

UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

No major changes for the overnight needed other than for observed
trends as the HRRR/RAP/Gridded LAMP through their 23 UTC
iterations continue to support fog thickening central through the
night, slowly shifting east with the arrival of a surface trough
late. However, the RAP/HRRR suggest additional fog and stratus
moving in from Canada Tuesday morning and into the afternoon
northwest and north central in the wake of the surface trough.
Will monitor this trend through the evening in the guidance and
add fog if needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Expect dense fog to again reform in weak flow aloft with nearly
light surface winds over central North Dakota tonight. The
favorable fog conditions will gradually end Tuesday morning as the
flow aloft increases and a northwest surface wind arrives. Until
then expect the dense fog to return tonight across the central.

The clouds/fog will complicate temperature forecasts tonight.
Last night western sections of the state dropped rapidly to around
zero in the clear sky area. Tonight there will be some increasing
clouds so accepted the Super blend solution but did lower mins
west about 5 degrees over guidance.

Tuesday will see the fog dissipate after sunrise with some lingering
lowered visibilities into the mid morning. With better mixing
Tuesday will see highs into the mid 20s north to the mid 30s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

For the early portion of the extended, a building h500 ridge over
the northern Plains and northern Rockies will be a large influence
on temperatures and weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Expect highs
reaching into the mid 20s to near 40 Wednesday and 30s to lower 40s
Thursday with dry conditions.

The next chance for precipitation will come from a shortwave
tracking across the Canadian border on Friday. Models have been
trending further north over time with this system, and the
Superblend guidance now just gives a chance for snow across the
northern third of the state. This system will then drag a cold
front through the region bringing in cooler but not particularly cold
temperatures into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Issued at 100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions in freezing fog and stratus
central tonight, slowly eroding from west to east late tonight
into Tuesday morning. However, confidence growing that another
batch of fog and stratus will build south-southeastward from
Canada into northwest and central North Dakota Tuesday morning and
afternoon, lingering into Tuesday night.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NDZ003-
004-011-012-019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH



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