Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
850 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Issued at 848 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Previous forecast remains in good shape. Fog continues in the
southwest with visibility continuing to bounce between a quarter
and half mile at Beach and Hettinger. Expect this to continue
another hour or two with gradual improvement going into late-

Issued at 649 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Extensive stratus deck keeping temperatures warm this morning, so
trending current observations to our daytime highs which results
in a low diurnal spread. Sky cover was increased today into
tonight to 100 percent as models show no signs of low stratus
leaving. Only exception northern ND where models do suggest some
drier air perhaps enough for some BKN conditions. The last update
to the inherited forecast was to extend fog mention across the
southwest (eliminating elsewhere) through the AM hours then
trending down after 18Z. High res models are persistent in
keeping fog over the far southwest corner for several more hours.
Latest observations and web cams indicating on average 1/2 mile
visibilities so opted to keep the Special Weather Statement for
fog through 16Z with this product issuance versus a dense fog
advisory. Day crew can reevaluate.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Concerns for the short include patchy dense fog southwest this
morning. Then snow is forecast to spread across southern North
Dakota late this afternoon with some accumulations tonight and

This morning fog is developing along the cloud edge in southwest
North Dakota. This should result in a narrow band of low
visibility across the southwest. Will initially handle this with
a special weather statement highlighting low visibilities and
possible rime on roads.

This afternoon an h500 upper low over the northwest US will kick
east and track toward Nebraska and South Dakota. This will spread
snow across South Dakota and into southwest North Dakota late this
afternoon. The majority of the accumulating snow will fall in the
extended period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Snow will fall across the southern third of North Dakota Monday
night and Tuesday. GEFS plumes show mean QPF amounts of 0.4 near
Mobridge to around 0.1 inch at Bismarck for the event. This
translates to a potential 1 to 5 inches of snow for the 36 hour
period across the southern third of North Dakota. In collaboration
with surrounding offices decided to hold off on winter weather
advisory for now.

As the low moves east nam/gfs/ecmwf all support some gusty
northwest winds across the new snow on Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. With this in mind added some blowing snow but probably
not serious enough to go above patchy blowing snow.

Wednesday through Friday will be mainly dry as a high index mid
level flow develops with a ridge over the eastern Pacific into the
western CONUS and a large trough over the eastern US. This will
set up a favorable scenario for several clipper systems to slide
down the eastern ridge into the Northern plains for next weekend.
Eventually these clipper systems will pull colder air into the

The eight to 14 day outlook suggests colder than normal
temperatures and potential for cold wind chills in the 30 Jan
through Feb 5th time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)

Issued at 649 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

The persistent MVFR ceilings will continue across the region
today with IFR at KDIK. A developing low pressure area across
Wyoming will move east and spread light snow across southern
North Dakota later today into tonight...impacting KDIK after 21z
and KBIS-KJMS after 04z.




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