Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
601 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH





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