000
FXUS63 KBIS 050655
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STRATUS DECK GIVEN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS FROM 06-07 UTC.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

UPDATE FOR LATE NIGHT POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST...WHERE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE EVENING.
AREAS AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR HARVEY AND CARRINGTON
COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH. ALSO ADDED SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CONTINUING PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THEN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA IS INHIBITING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. STRONGER
REFLECTIVITY`S REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER FROM AROUND
LINTON AND STRASBURG EAST TO ELLENDALE AND OAKES. WILL ADD A PRE-
FIRST PERIOD TO THE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
SNOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST AS BEST FORCING MOVES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE AREA OF MAX
REFLECTIVITIES. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED AMOUNTS ABOVE 2
INCHES...BUT GENERALLY 1-2 LOOKS GOOD.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...RESULTING IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE...BUT NOT AS COLD OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA...WILL PRODUCE A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE THE MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT
GET WARM ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF MIXED OR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. THUS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION AS ALL SNOW DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WE UTILIZED A GFS/NAM BLEND FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE NAM WAS MUCH WARMER...INDICATING A BETTER
CHANCE OF MIXED OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT THE 12 UTC 4 MARCH
ECMWF CAME IN CLOSER TO THE GFS...INCREASING OUR CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION REMAINING FROZEN. WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MIXED OR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR JUST BEYOND OUR SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

500MB PATTERN PER GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF A FREEING RAIN HEADLINE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS SLATED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...A NICE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE COOLING OCCURS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SCOOT
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND A
LIGHT SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH DEPTH IN THE WARM
LAYER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 TO WHERE FULL
MELTING WILL BE LIKELY...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE. HENCE FREEZING LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS REANALYZE THE INCOMING DATA FOR ANY
ADJUSTMENTS OR HEADLINES THAT MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S
CENTRAL AND AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MAINLY
IMPACT NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM +6C
THURSDAY MORNING TO ROUGHLY -10C FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S CENTRAL AND SOUTH TO
LOWER 20S NORTH. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPSTREAM BROAD RIDGING APPROACHING NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. 850 TEMPS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH +11C ARRIVING SUNDAY. THIS TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS IN
THE THE MID 30S NORTH...TO LOWER 40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF
THAT A WEAK CLIPPER WILL AFFECT THE FAR NORTH AND EAST/TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. A RETURN TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...850 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST BETWEEN 0C SOUTHWEST TO -6C NORTHEAST...SO NO WHERE NEAR AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS HAVE GIVEN US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE ERODING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT KISN AND KMOT...WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KBIS
AND KJMS. MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD