Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010234
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
934 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER MIN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS. WE`VE BEEN TOO WARM WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS PAST TWO NIGHTS. EVEN WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...THINK WE CAN STILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
WELL. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING THE
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WARM SATURDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS WITH HIGHER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER
EDGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN VERIFICATION.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE FORM OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND FUELS THAT ARE NOT FULLY CURED
LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS SHOW SOME EMBEDDED ENERGY ALOFT NEAR
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES START OUT WARM FOR SUNDAY THEN COOL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
OUR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S) FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH


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