Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 232139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
339 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

A windy Friday highlights the short term forecast.

Multiple All-Time Thanksgiving Day records have been broken or
tied today across western and central North Dakota as of 330 pm

Location.....Observed...November 23 Record..Thanksgiving All Time

Dickinson........69...........63 in 1984........65 in 1998
Williston........67...........56 in 2011........56 in 2002
Bismarck.........74...........62 in 2011........62 in 2002
Minot............62...........55 in 1942........57 in 2011
Jamestown........56...........59 in 1942........56 in 2011

A cold front will propagate across western and central North
Dakota tonight. Strong winds will develop behind the front late
tonight and continue into Friday across western and central North
Dakota. The strongest winds are expected in the 10-18 UTC
timeframe when isallobaric forcing is greatest with a 6mb/3hr
pressure rise behind the front. The 12 UTC NAM/GFS Bufr and 19
UTC RAP soundings depict around 45-50kts to mix at 850 mb. Thus,
widespread wind gusts in excess of 40 kts are expected across
western and most of central North Dakota, and a Wind Advisory has
been issued for most areas. Would not be surprised to see a couple
gusts in excess of 50kts immediately behind the cold front.

Scattered rain showers are expected tonight with the passage of
the front. With steep mid level lapse rates and a warmer overall
thermal profile, a thunderstorm or two may be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

After a relative cool down for Friday and Saturday in the wake of
the cold front, although temperatures will still be above normal,
another very warm day is possible on Sunday. The 12 UTC NAEFS
850mb mean temperatures climb towards their 99th percentiles once
again on Sunday. Thus, well above normal temperatures in the 50s
and maybe the 60s are possible for much of western and central
North Dakota on Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 308 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 18 UTC TAF cycle outside of rain showers. Strong
west turning northwest winds are forecast to develop tonight and
continue into Friday behind a cold front. Widespread gusts of
30-40kts are expected, potentially higher during the morning
hours of Friday. Scattered showers are possible with the passage
of the front tonight.


Wind Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
Friday for NDZ003-011-012-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-

Wind Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/
Friday for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.



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