Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 160445
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Current gridded forecast continues on track. Shortwave now
rotating up across northwest ND. Showers still occurring across
the north closest to the shortwave. Stratus/drizzle continues over
most of central and southern ND, and will maintain that overnight.
The next shortwave is on track for tomorrow, spreading more showers
into the west and north central, with a secondary area in the James
River Valley extending into portions of south central ND in the
afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Widespread rain showers have been lifting northerly through the
evening, so have cut back precipitation chances mainly over
southern locations. In its wake, some drizzle remains. Have also
added the mention of some fog over the area as visibilities remain
lowered a bit over some areas even though precipitation has
ceased.

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Rain showers continue over most locations with some thunderstorms
showing up primarily over the James River Valley. Previous
forecast had this addressed rather well, so only adjusted a bit
towards current conditions. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Widespread rainshowers, gusty northeasterly winds, chilly temperatures,
along with embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms southwest
and south central this afternoon and evening are the main concerns
in the short term.

The small-scale mid level circulation evident earlier this morning
over north central/northeastern South Dakota has lifted northeast
into the James River Valley of North Dakota. Have see a few isolated
lightning strikes in Dickey County and in north central and
northeastern South Dakota associated with this feature. This
circulation is forecast to continue moving northeastward towards the
northern Red River Valley of North Dakota by this evening. Rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with this feature
should continue moving northward through the James Valley this
afternoon.

The latest water vapor satellite imagery depicts a shortwave over
the MT/WY/SD border this afternoon. This feature is associated with
the widespread showers that continue across much of eastern Montana
and the western half of North Dakota. This feature is forecast to
lift northeastward across western and central North Dakota tonight,
continuing the widespread showers across the area. The best chances
for higher accumulations of rain continue to be the western and
north central parts of the state this afternoon through tonight.

The best chance for more widespread significant rainfall amounts of
over 1/2 inch will be continuing this afternoon and evening, where
lifting along a southwest-to-northeast boundary at mid levels that
enhances frontogenesis is occurring - primarily from western to
north central North Dakota. That boundary lifts northeast into
Canada late tonight.

The main large upper level low/trough remains over the Rockies this
afternoon, and is forecast to lift northeastward through North
Dakota Saturday and Saturday night. This will set up yet another
round of showers for our area on Saturday. The best chances of
showers on Saturday will be across the west and north central part
of North Dakota. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 are
expected in those areas on Saturday.

After a cool day today, look for lows tonight from the mid and upper
30s west to the lower 50s southeast. Cool again Saturday with highs
in the upper 40s to the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Saturday night the large low pressure system continues lifting
northeast into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, dragging a strong
shortwave across North Dakota in its flow. The better chances for
precipitation Saturday night with this system is across northern
North Dakota, with clearing skies moving in behind the shortwave.
The cold air associated with the system may bring some frost late
Saturday night into Sunday morning across the west. Slightly warmer
Sunday with highs in the 60s under partly cloudy skies.

A weaker shortwave following the large departing system moves
through ND Sunday night, bringing a small chance of rain mainly to
south central and southeast parts of the state. Meanwhile another
large low pressure system dives southeast from the Gulf of Alaska
into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Warming in North Dakota ahead
of this system should bring temperatures back into the 70s Monday
with southerly winds and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies.

The large Pacific Northwest low moves east across the Rockies
Monday, bringing unsettled weather to the Northern Plains Tuesday
through Friday. Global models are depicting a southerly low level
jet developing through the Plains ahead of this system, with plenty
of low level moisture. CAPE will be on the increase with decent 0-
6km bulk shear on Tuesday, bringing the potential for thunderstorms
with possible severe weather, especially south central and the James
Valley. Expect highs Tuesday from the upper 60s to upper 70s, with
cooler, cloudy, and showery weather Wednesday through Friday with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Ifr/lifr cigs will continue with -ra for most of the Taf period.
A transition to drier weather, and improvement to mvfr/vfr cigs
will commence near/after 00z Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



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