Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Latest suite of satellite imagery indicates a generally clear sky
across western and central ND. However, an area of stratus across
southern Saskatchewan is churning counterclockwise around low
pressure in south central Saskatchewan. These clouds will slowly
move into northwest ND 06z-12z Wednesday, then fill in across most
of western ND and approach south central by mid morning. Current
forecast continues on track.

UPDATE Issued at 913 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Current forecast trending ok. Winds have diminished and generally
shifted to the southwest. Just updated current conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The majority of the area is currently in subsiding air within the
dry slot region across west and central North Dakota. The center
of mid level circulation appears to be near Swift Current
Saskatchewan with an abundant cumulus and strato-cumulus field
radiating out from the center. As this system moves southeast the
clouds and scattered showers will approach northern North Dakota
Wednesday. until then the evening will see mainly clear skies
except for the far northwest where a strato-cu field will
gradually move into the region. The winds will diminish and
become more westerly this evening then return tomorrow as a
gusty northwest wind. Current forecast trending ok.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cooler Wednesday highlights the short term forecast.

Western and central North Dakota will remain in the dry slot of
the low across southeast Saskatchewan through the evening and
much of the overnight. Wrap around moisture will increase through
the late night and Wednesday morning, generally in the form of
low stratus with precipitation chances generally restricted to
along and north of US Highway 2. Continued low level cold air
advection and cloud cover will limit highs to around 60 far
northwest to the mid 70s across the James River Valley. Given good
agreement, a consensus of the 12-15 UTC global and hi resolution
suites were used for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Thunderstorm chances Friday into Saturday and moderating
temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global and ensemble suites suggest a shortwave trough to
impact the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday. While some timing
differences do remain, the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected across southern North Dakota. Low
amplitude, broad upper level ridging is forecast Sunday into early
next week, supporting a moderating trend back to near normal


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Trend during this Taf period will be the development of mvr cigs
at KISN by 11z Wednesday and 14z at KDIK. KMOT will be on the edge
of low vfr/mvfr cigs while low vfr cigs forecast at KBIS. Vfr cigs
continue at KJMS. During the daylight hours Wednesday, mvfr cigs
will lift to low vfr at times. Another slug of mvfr and possible
ifr cigs will push through after 00z Thursday and continue beyond
this taf period, especially at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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