Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
334 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Diurnal convection peaking out this afternoon with the upper level
trough moving through. Just enough cape for a few thunderstorms
southwest this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the
convection will diminish quickly after sunset with skies slowly
clearing tonight from the west. Tonight`s lows will be in the
upper 30s southwest to the upper 40s east. Will not mention frost
as the minimum temperatures should be just above the frost

On Tuesday the upper low will exit the region with rising heights
at h500 suppressing convection most of the area. Tuesday will be
partly sunny west with lingering clouds and a few showers across
the James River Valley. Highs Tuesday upper 50s James River
Valley to the upper 60s northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The extended will generally remain below normal for temperatures
with limited precipitation. Initially the global models track an
upper low across southern Canada pulling a cold front through
western North Dakota Wednesday Afternoon. Scattered showers will
form along the cold front. Cape is limited but zero to 6 km shear
sufficient to support a few thunderstorms along the front.

There will be lingering showers across the north and east
Thursday. Friday through Memorial Day will see spotty showers but
not anything widespread. Highs through the weekend into Memorial
Day period mostly in the 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the 18Z TAF period
with the exception of KJMS where MVFR ceilings are forecast
towards the end of the period. There is a chance for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon which may impact KDIK. Otherwise,
scattered showers will continue southward through the day with
chances lingering over KJMS through much of the TAF period.




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