Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202315
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND A QUIET SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS MONTANA AND
LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SUNSET...WITH 35-40 KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE MIXING LAYER. A NARROW BAND OF WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER...WILL ONLY IMPACT THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A SUNNY...QUIET AND DRY SUNDAY IS
AHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD
TO THE PLAINS TO START THE WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF LOW LIFTS ITS WAY
OVER THE SIERRA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE RIDGE...APPROACHING THE
PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXITING EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LAST
FEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGES SO WILL KEEP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. RIDGING THEN RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH REMNANTS OF
THE LOW REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00 UTC TAF PERIOD. PERHAPS A
FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS SKIRTING KMOT AND KJMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH





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