Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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983
FXUS63 KBIS 241845
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
145 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

No changes for the rest of today other than to blend to observed
trends through 18 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 939 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Little change in the forecast in a high confidence scenario with
wrap around moisture south of the upper level low on the
Saskatchewan and Manitoba border. Forecast blended to observed
trends through 14 UTC.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Sped up the increase in cloud cover from west to east with latest
satellite loop a tad faster than forecast. Otherwise the inherited
forecast remains on track for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Clouds, gusty northwest winds, cooler temperatures, and chances
for showers across the north highlight the short term period.

Latest water vapor imagery shows our slow moving closed upper low
circulating over southeast Saskatchewan early this morning. At the
surface, a secondary cold front stemming from low pressure in
eastern Manitoba, stretched southwest to near Estevan and into
northeast Montana. This cold front will continue to push southeast
today continuing the ongoing cold air advection. Bufkit shows
northwest mixed layer winds between 20 and 30 mph. These winds
will overspread western and central ND today. Clouds will dominate
the northwest this morning, spreading southeast through the day
and evening. The far southeast or southern James River Valley
will actually see quite a bit of sunshine today, and consequently
the warmest temperatures with highs in the mid 70s. In between,
expect more clouds than sunshine becoming the dominant sky condition.
Scattered showers will develop in the vicinity of the strongest
cyclonic flow across the north today in combination with steep
925-850mb lapse rates of 9C to 10C/km. The coldest 850mb pocket of
air of +4C to +6C arrives tonight. Associated with it will be continued
cyclonic flow, unstable low level lapse rates through a moist layer,
resulting in another area of clouds to develop, especially across
central ND.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A dry and cool northwest flow dominates Thursday as the closed
low continues to shift farther east into Ontario. Highs will range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s. The flow quickly and briefly
transitions to southwest as a mid level shortwave is scooped out
of the Great Basin by an approaching northern stream trough. This
shortwave scoots across near/along the southern border Friday.
This is followed by an upstream shortwave embedded within a quasi
zonal flow for Saturday. The end result will be increasing chances
for showers and some thunderstorms Friday through Saturday.
Thereafter a fairly progressive pattern with a quasi zonal flow
heralding in periodic shortwaves Monday through most of next week.
Good agreement that Sunday and probably most of Monday will be
dry, with chances for precipitation increasing thereafter. A warming
trend is anticipated, with highs in the 70s through Saturday, then
80s Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

MVFR stratus/stratocumulus will remain across western and central
North Dakota through the evening, clearing west to east through
the late night into Thursday morning. Ceilings may improve to VFR
during the afternoon with daytime heating, but return to MVFR
after sunset. Northwest wind gusts of 30-35kts are forecast area
wide today.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD



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