Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250646
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1246 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1242 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Main update was to increase cloud cover over my northeast and far
north central late tonight into Saturday morning. Satellite
imagery showing a decent area of low stratus across southeastern
Saskatchewan/southwestern Alberta moving southward. Already these
low clouds are over my far northeast across Rolette and parts of
Bottineau Counties. RAP/HRRR/NAM all develop these clouds
southward with time, slowly moving eastward Saturday
morning/afternoon 15-21Z along to ahead of a warm front.


UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Current forecast looks ok so far. Made some minor changes to
clouds. Weak cold front will slide southeast then return northeast
on Saturday afternoon. The next chance for precipitation will be
Monday and that will be modest.

UPDATE Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Weak cold front along the International Border will slip southeast
tonight bringing some clouds into the north central. A weak mid
level feature has been tracking east across northern Montana and
North Dakota today with no associated radar returns so it appears
just dry. The only changes made were to the clouds to better
match the satellite trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows a progressive northwest flow aloft
into North Dakota. Large scale subsidence this afternoon across
western and central ND behind this mornings surface front and
upper level shortwave continues to promote sunny conditions.
Breezy conditions will continue through the afternoon then diminish.
A weak mid level shortwave over southeastern Alberta initialized
well with the 12z NAM12, will quickly advance through western ND
this evening, and exit the James River Valley shortly after midnight.
This wave will be dry, however scattered mid/high clouds now seen
on visible imagery upstream will accompany this shortwave as it
slides through. Overall expect a clear to partly cloudy sky
tonight, with the partly cloudy conditions favoring the north
central, and possible into south central early Saturday morning.

In the far north, a backdoor cold front now across south central
Saskatchewan and into Manitoba will slide southeast this evening
and tonight. Following the NAM12/RAP13 925mb-850mb thermal layer,
a weak baroclinic zone slips into far northern ND this evening,
including the Turtle Mountains. As a proxy for defining the low
level cold front - per visible satellite imagery and the NAM12/RAP13
925mb-850mb isotherms, the low level front and associated stratus
deck is situated between the 0C to -2C isotherms. This demarcation
will meander and graze the far north central and Turtle Mountains
this evening, then sag south and align itself from around Kenmare
to McClusky and into Jamestown by 12z Saturday. Thus, we could
see some lower clouds along the western/southern periphery of
the demarcation line mentioned above. But even more so on the
colder side of the baroclinic zone, (east and north of the line).
This can be monitored in the evening/overnight and forecast sky
grids can be adjusted as clouds begin to push south. Overnight
lows across western/central ND will be in the 20s.

For Saturday, a mid level ridge over the northern Rockies will
keep a northwest flow across the area. Some morning clouds
central as mentioned above, otherwise, becoming sunny with the
exception of the Turtle Mountains where clouds will give way to
partly cloudy conditions in the afternoon. An upper level
shortwave rounding the top of the ridge will push into eastern
Montana/western ND late afternoon and early evening, but no
significant weather expected with this wave. Highs Saturday will
range from the lower/mid 30s Turtle Mountains, to around 50
southwest and south central.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The overall long term finds temperatures remaining above normal,
but there are signs per CIPS Analog, that a return to below normal
temperatures are approaching, beginning around December 7th.
Precipitation during the long term period is meager, with the best
chances coming Monday, as a cold front moves through. Even at
that, amounts look light at this time, under a tenth of an inch
liquid.

A surge of warm air advection begins the long term Saturday night
through Sunday as a warm front shifts through. Increasing mid/high
clouds will accompany the front later Saturday night through
Sunday morning. With the warm front pushing through, quite a
baroclinic zone/temperature difference from southwest to northeast
Sunday. The cold air remains around Rolla with highs in the lower
30s, and around 60F will be common in the southwest. The warm
sector remains overhead Sunday night, with an advancing cold front
pushing into the northwest by mid morning Monday. This will slide
southeast during the day with increasing wind and a chance for
light rain. We could see a low end wind advisory emerge Monday,
and will know more as we get closer. Otherwise, with mixing ahead
of the front Monday, highs will again reach the mid and upper 50s
across the central and south, with 40s in the north. Colder air to
follow Monday night and Tuesday, but still above normal. Highs
Tuesday will be in the 40s. That trend with highs in the 40s will
continue Wednesday. Then another cold front is forecast Wednesday
evening/night, with little or no precipiation with it. However it
becomes a little colder behind the front Thursday and Friday with
highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

Issued at 1242 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Current HiRes models are hinting at IFR ceilings moving south from
Canada into north central areas of ND around 12Z, then shifting
eastward. IFR ceilings are possible at KMOT though opted for low VFR
in the TAF due to models trending towards IFR ceilings possibly
moving in east of KMOT. Otherwise, conditions should be fairly quiet
through the 06Z TAF period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC


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