Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Over the last few hours, visibilities over Glasgow, MT and
Williston have begun to dip slightly. Looking at satellite
imagery, it appears that this is because of some smoke eminating
from Canadian wild fires. For this reason, decided to add some
patchy smoke into the forecast through the afternoon and overnight
hours tonight. Additionally, tweak precipitation chances based on
the most current radar observations and blended the fastest
 to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 836 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

For morning update have added in precipitation chances over the
James River Valley and surrounding region as convection has
blossomed as a modest shortwave moved into an area enhanced
instability. So far the storms have remained on the tame side.
These storms will continue to push east, with additional chances
coming this afternoon as the cold front pushes in.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Large cloud shield left over from the overnight convection
continues across central North Dakota and have updated and raise
cloud cover for this. Otherwise current early morning dry forecast
looks ok with afternoon convection southeast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Convection from last night was moving through the Red River
Valley as of this writing, while a few showers were dying and
drying between Dickinson, Minot, and Harvey.

Lower dew point air, 50s, had worked through western North Dakota
and were on Minot, Garrison, and Bismarck`s doorstep. Juicy 60s
ahead of that.

A cold front will continue to push south and east across the area
today while a rigorous H5 wave passes overhead resulting in
height falls. Location of surface front will be critical to
marking where storms fire again this afternoon in peak heating
when convective temperatures are reached / exceeded. At this
point it looks like the firing line will be from Jamestown to
Ashley, with severe weather possible east of that line on into the
Grand Forks NWS forecast area. Once Convective Inhibition is
overcome by heating the surface, 2,500 J/KG CAPE will be able to
be tapped for severe weather being possible across Logan,
McIntosh, Dickey, Lamoure, and Stutsman counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The mean H5 ridge over the area flattens to a fast quasi-zonal
flow for this week. Aided by a long wave trough over Alberta,
into southern Saskatchewan, a series of waves keep chances for
thunderstorms in the forecast most days through the long range
period. With the mean jet position a bit south of its recent
position, highs of 85 to 95 dominate and replace the 95 to 105
high temperatures of late.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon into this evening
over the James River Valley. Scattered thunderstorms possible
tonight into Tuesday morning over southern North Dakota. Over far
northern North Dakota, patchy smoke may lead to brief visibility




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