Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
418 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 418 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be frost/freeze
headlines this morning, then the beginning of a brief warming

Currently, upper level low pressure over south central Canada
will continue to lift east-northeast with a surface ridge of high
pressure building over the Dakotas. As the winds shifted to
west/southwest low clouds quickly dissipated over the last 2-4
hours across western and central ND, leading to temperatures
dropping well into the 30s. Will let the frost/freeze headlines
continue as is. Could justify easily an expansion of the headlines
but no point at this late hour. Fog also being observed over
portions of the west and this has been maintained in the forecast.

Surface ridge moves east today ahead of an embedded S/WV impulse
moving into southeast MT mid to late afternoon. Mostly sunny to
start the day but will see increasing late day clouds ahead of
this wave mainly south. Subtle area of associated low pressure
will move with the wave and will bring a chance for light showers
to my south central and James River Valley counties this
evening/early Monday morning.

With the transition to more southerly flow temperatures will warm
10-15 degrees from Saturday. Still chilly tonight with lingering
dry air where we could see mid 30s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 418 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Large area of low pressure developing into the Pacific Northwest
and eventually the Northern Plains will highlight the extended

S/WV ridge will build across the region on Monday as a strong
upper level low develops into the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies. Dry
conditions Monday with temperatures again warming another 10
degrees under a southerly flow pattern.

Monday night into Tuesday the upper low slowly develops east
across the Montana Rockies and southern Canadian Rockies
triggering lee side cyclogenesis across the Northern high plains
of WY/MT. Strong frontal zone moves east into the western Dakotas
Tuesday morning, then across the central Dakotas Tuesday
afternoon as strong embedded waves rotate around the low and lift
northeast through our area. Increasing southerly winds will
transport ample moisture northward into the North Dakota as a low
level jet develops ahead of the system. This setup will favor good
chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of the Northern
Plains. MUCAPE to 2K J/KG and 0-6KM Shear of 40-50KTS will combine
to provide a favorable environment for strong to severe storms.
At this time the favored area for strong to severe convection will
be along to east of Highway 83.

The remainder of the period remains active as both the GFS and
ECMWF depict a long wave trough over the western CONUS through
Saturday maintain southwest flow aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Aviation impacts expected this Taf period include vlifr/mvfr vsbys
through 14z Sunday at KISN/KDIK. Elsewhere, mvfr cigs will improve
to vfr through 12z Sunday. Northwest winds early in the period will
become southwest then southerly Sunday afternoon and evening, but
less than 10kt.


Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NDZ001-

Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT this morning for NDZ040-041-043-



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