Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 240638
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CHANGE
WAS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING THE JAMES VALLEY TO HAVE FLURRIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.