Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 102133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP. LATER TONIGHT BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODEST LIFT OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHERLY.

FOR THURSDAY...BROAD AREA OF MODEST LIFT SPREADS EASTERLY INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SPREADING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS
SPREADING THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS


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