Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
409 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Low clouds were advancing south behind the cold front that passed
through the forecast area on Tuesday. Overnight lows were reached
just prior to the clouds moving in with about a 5 degree rebound
in the hour or two following. Also ahead of the cloud band
visibility was reduced in fog for about an hour.

Clouds will continue to advance to the south with all areas
overcast by daybreak. Two things will work to erode the cloud
deck, from the south. Cross sections show the layer to be rather
thin. The southern end of the deck will begin to evaporate with
sunrise due to heating of the surface in the clear air ahead of
it, and the heating of the top of the deck. Secondly, mid level
clouds advancing from the southwest, ahead of a short wave trough,
will radiate to the lower deck and aid in its thinning. That wave
brings a chance of rain showers to the southwest part of North
Dakota during the late afternoon and into the evening, possibly as
far north as Interstate 94 from Beach to Glen Ullin. CAPE is very
minimal and so have not included any thunder.

Temperatures today will vary from 40 or so along the international
border, where clouds hang in most of the day, to the lower 50s
where sunshine breaks out along the South Dakota border. Speaking
of temperatures, have followed the slightly warmer GFS MOS
guidance based on its superior performance Tuesday and Tuesday

Any showers end in the southwest to far south-central before
midnight tonight followed by a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

The area remains under a mean h5 trough on Thursday with sunshine
heating leading to areas of clouds. H5 ridging for Thursday night
and Friday results in a relatively mild period. That`s followed
by zonal flow for the weekend but with a twist in the form of a
trough in the flow for Saturday afternoon and night. Models have
wiggled a bit back and forth on the track of the wave along the
international border but are consistent that along and north of
highway 2 has the highest chances for some rain that period, rain
/ snow mix at night.

A mean ridge builds back over the area for the start of next week,
with what should be temperatures just above normal to start severe
winter weather awareness week (October 24 to 28).


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail at all TAF sites early this
Wednesday morning. Expect ceilings to lift to VFR and/or dissipate
from late morning into early this afternoon. Scattered showers
southwest this afternoon. For now will not add a VCSH at KDIK but
will monitor through the day. Northwest flow today becomes light and
variable tonight with low level southerly flow bringing increasing
moisture into southwest ND late. Too early now but this could lead
to a period of low stratus/fog at KDIK late Wednesday night.




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