Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KBIS 151742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Went ahead and replaced the fire weather watch with a red flag
warning for Sunday from 18z to 01z Monday. Forecast minimum RH
values are still in the 15 to 20 percent range over much of the
area west of the Missouri River. Breezy southerly winds of 20 to
30 mph will also be in place over much of western and central
North Dakota ahead of an approaching cold front. For the near
term, no major changes were needed and just blended the latest
observations to the going forecast. Clouds in the east and
northeast were starting to lift and scatter as expected.

UPDATE Issued at 815 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Highlight early this morning from previous discussion are low
clouds over southern Manitoba, continuing to shift south to southwest
with time. The RAP13 has the best initialization as of 8 AM CDT.
Rolla will remain nearly overcast through the morning, with Rugby
and Harvey just on the outer fringes of the low cloud area through
noon CDT. Minor adjustments to the sky grids based on current observations
and RAP13 forecast. Otherwise the rest of the forecast is on track.

Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Satellite data show some scattered clouds in low level northeast
flow across north central North Dakota. Believe area will mix out
around noon but added morning clouds to the north central.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

High pressure across the central Prairie Provinces of Canada into
the Northern Plains will maintain a quiet weather pattern across
the region today. Skies will be mainly sunny with decidedly
cooler temperatures especially north central where highs will be
in the mid 70s. Still warm in the west with highs there in the
lower 90s, but that is at least 10 degrees lower than Friday.

Tonight a surface trough with an associated warm front beneath
the broad h500 ridge will set up another h850 thermal ridge poised
to move into western North Dakota Sunday. CAM models bring
scattered convection close to the boarder by Sunday morning with
the approach of the warm front and increasing low level jet.
However believed this is generally too fast and will maintain dry
weather as specified by the Forecast Builder initialization.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Sunday shaping up to be a significant fire weather day with high
temperatures across the west around 100 again. GEFS Temperatures
Plumes show 100 to 105 for the west so a conservative forecast
would be around 100. Relative humidity in the teens and gusty
southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph still look reasonable and will
continue the Fire Weather Watch for the southwest and west central
Sunday afternoon and evening.

For the most part the warm front will be dry due to limited
moisture. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms
northwest with the approaching cold front Sunday.

Monday through Friday will see a slowly evolving mid level fast
flow regime with an upper level low over Canada and a flattened
ridge across the central US. This will bring several weak
shortwaves through the northern plains and nearly daily chances
for thunderstorms. Temperatures though the period will be
moderating with highs Tuesday through Thursday in the 70s to mid
80s warming to the 80s to around 90 by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Sct low level cumulus based from 2500ft to 3500ft at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS
will continue through sunset. A vcfg and sct005 was added to
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS generally between 09z and 15z Sunday as a shallow
layer of moisture develops. High uncertainty at this time as to
whether stratus or fog will develop, and to what extent. Will try to
pin it down for the 00z and 06z taf issuances. Otherwise, vfr
cigs/vsbys expected this taf period.


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
Sunday for NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.



AVIATION...KS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.