Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 282006
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
306 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH WARM WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAZY SKIES
TODAY ARE DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES STREAMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE RIDGE WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT OUR REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING THROUGH
MONDAY.

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN
BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT BRUSHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...WITH GFS BEING A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THE INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COOLER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING MANY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
SWING THROUGH. ONCE SUCH WAVE IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS SOUTH WINDS USHER IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LEE SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. BASICALLY WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO THE
PATTERN WE HAD EARLY LAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES HAS BEEN STREAMING OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER IT HAS NOT IMPACTED VISIBILITY
AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JNS



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