Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 190356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY SOM MINOR UPDATES LATE THIS EVENING. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG
MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOG IS BECOMING MORE
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. STILL THINK AREAS JUST WEST OF
THE CLEARING WILL FOG IN A LITTLE ALSO. UPDATED TEMPERATURES BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN DICKEY/LAMOURE
COUNTIES DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING...AND DONT THINK FZDZ CAN BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE WE HAVE THE STRATUS. THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES WHEREVER
WE HAVE THE LOW STRATUS. THIS IS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST. DICKINSON CLEARED OUT AND DROPPED DOWN
TO A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY...BEFORE SETTLING AROUND 3SM. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY. TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

ONLY A COUPLE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LOWERED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS AREA. ADJUSTED MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE A LITTLE NORTH INTO STUTSMAN COUNTY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH 9 PM CENTRAL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NEAR THE
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SLIDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER REMAINING
AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODING
AS WEAK RIDGE MAKES ITS APPROACH. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED A 332 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
THE LARGE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE...HOWEVER PAST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE...ONLY SLIGHT...OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A WEAK COLD FRONT.
EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY MELT THE
SNOW...HOWEVER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL MOST
LIKELY REFREEZE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SLEET. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING...CAUSING ANY
FALLING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SNOW...AND RAIN. WITH ALL THAT SAID ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY KIND
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY...DEEPENS
AND PROPAGATES EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...RAIN...AND SNOW TO NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ONCE AGAIN
ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
TO SEE IF ANY MORE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
KDIK SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. IF STRATUS CONTINUES TO CLEAR AT ITS CURRENT
RATE KISN AND KBIS WOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 00 UTC TAFS. MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR KMOT AND KJMS
KEEPING THEM IN MVFR-IFR STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF FOG AT KDIK WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH





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