Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 112001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. THE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER DESK GUIDANCE INDICATES BORDERLINE ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES. TIMING OF THE
RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER WILL BE CRITICAL. THUS...CONFIDENCE NOT
THAT HIGH IN GETTING A SIGNIFICANT AREA WITH 3+ INCHES...WHICH
WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE 11/12Z ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH
TOTAL QPF NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT DOES SPREAD UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DAY TIME
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BE LIMITED NORTH...BUT AFTERNOON READINGS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR
SURGE. ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A FEW MPH
FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN/TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION BEFORE
ENDING BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
REINFORCED SHOT OF COLD AIR. SFC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH A
SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF LOW POPS AS WILL
LIKELY SEE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY ON THE CHILLY SIDE...LOW 30S-AROUND 40.

MODELS TREND TOWARDS DISARRAY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY IN
ADDITION TO EMBEDDED WAVES ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC TRACKING
EAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STUCK
WITH THE ALLBLEND OUTPUT. MORE CERTAINTY THAT COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF WAA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOST FAVORED TONIGHT AT
KISN/KMOT/KJMS AND HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA GROUPS. LESSER
CHANCES AT KBIS/KDIK...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO BRIEF VCSH
GROUPS. PRECIP TYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE AT KMOT LATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS COOL...BUT HAVE KEPT ALL RAIN IN TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH









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