Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191412
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
912 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM A LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FIRST PERIOD POPS TO
ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES BASED ON THE EXPECTED
TRAJECTORY OF THIS ACTIVITY. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A
FEW DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 AS MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AND DRY WESTERLY WIND SHOULD WARM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...HRRR AND RAP...SUGGEST ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA SHOULD BECOME CONFINED
TO CANADA. HAVE ALLOWED THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO EXPIRE
AS FORECAST AT 11Z...SINCE ANYTHING THAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO NORTH
DAKOTA SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF...LIGHT AND RIGHT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EARLY MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING BEFORE RETREATING NORTH
INTO CANADA. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

CURRENTLY...STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...NOW CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. DRY
SLOT CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT
THE MOMENT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTHWEST
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEAST.

MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CANADA
THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY BUT NOT AS WINDY AS FRIDAY.
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20KTS AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE WITH THE ONSET OF THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK...BUT THERE IS APPROXIMATELY 100
J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS
AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...HOWEVER A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEY DO AGREE WITH SOME GENERALITIES.  PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL QPF FROM WPC OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 - 1.25 INCH RANGE...SO MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN COULD BRUSH KMOT THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE REMAINDER OF THE AERODROMES WILL BE
VFR. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25KTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

DRY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NUMERICAL FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT AS
DRY AS EARLIER DEPICTED...NOW INDICATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND 35 TO 45 NORTH.

THE GFDI HAS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE HIGH OR A
LOW-END "VERY HIGH" FIRE DANGER TODAY...BUT WELL BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA. FIRE MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...NH




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