Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
325 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Fire weather concerns far southwest Tuesday highlight the short
term forecast.

A cold front across central Montana this afternoon is forecast to
enter western North Dakota late tonight, and move through central
North Dakota Tuesday morning. See the fire weather discussion
below for details regarding fire weather concerns across far
southwest North Dakota Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far northwest and north
central North Dakota late tonight into Tuesday morning with the
cold front, with additional storms possible tonight potentially
across the James River Valley in deeper moisture and forced by
the low level jet as depicted by the 15-19 UTC RAP iterations.
Severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Slowly moderating temperatures into the weekend highlight the
extended forecast.

After a cool start to the extended forecast with highs in the 60s
for much of the area on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front
from the short term, the 12 UTC global deterministic and ensemble
suites are in agreement on cyclonic northwest flow aloft
potentially remaining over the Northern Plains Thursday and
Friday. This would support continued below normal but slightly
warmer highs in the 70s. Thereafter, the upper level flow pattern
may transition to quasi-zonal by the weekend. This would mark a
continued moderation in temperatures back to near normal with
highs in the lower 80s Sunday into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for the 18 UTC TAF cycle across
western and central North Dakota. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible across northern North Dakota tonight
into Tuesday morning. Low level wind shear is forecast at
KJMS late tonight into Tuesday morning with strong winds expected
just off the surface.


Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

For Tuesday afternoon, increased fire danger is anticipated
behind a departing cold front across far southwest North Dakota.
Dry fuels, particularly in the western portions of Golden Valley,
Slope, and Bowman counties, combined with sustained northwest
winds of 20 to 25 mph, and minimum relative humidity of around 20
percent, may result in near critical fire weather conditions. Thus
a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Tuesday afternoon into
early Tuesday evening.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NDZ031-040-043.



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