Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 121418

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
818 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Issued at 814 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Latest satellite loops show a sharp cloud line across southwest
North Dakota making it easy to differentiate the cloudy and clear
areas. Made mainly cloud cover updates and raised the area of likely
pops across the southwest for the morning where surface obs and
Bowman radar show the best precipitation is ongoing.

UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Absolutely frigid conditions continue across northwest and central
North Dakota this morning with widespread lows of -25 to -30,
with a few readings of -31 as of 12 UTC. Sent a Public Information
Statement and a social media graphic depicting observed lows
through 12 UTC. Did lower highs a couple of degrees with the
Arctic high in place and such cold temperatures to start. Most
locations across western and central North Dakota are expected to
struggle to -15 to -10 for highs today. Dangerous wind chills of
-35 to -45 will continue.

Used the low temperatures from this morning as the basis for the
low temperature forecast for tonight into Saturday morning,
lowering temperatures from these observations across the James
River Valley where the high is expected to be centered. An
expansion of the Wind Chill Warning may be needed.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Dangerous wind chills highlight the short term forecast.

Fresh snow cover, clear skies and light winds have resulted in a
frigid morning across western and central North Dakota.
Widespread temperatures of 20 to 30 below are being reported as of
10 UTC across the northwest and central, with relatively warmer
readings of 5 to 15 below southwest with the impacts of cloud
cover and light snow that will linger through the morning. Given
this very cold morning, trended below the 00 UTC blended suite for
highs for today. Expect a very slow recovery to only 5 to 10
below at best for most areas. Have upgraded the Wind Chill
Advisory to a Wind Chill Warning for the northwest, north central
and across Lake Sakakawea where wind chills to -45 below are
expected with any wind this morning, and again tonight through
Saturday morning. Extended the Wind Chill Advisory for the
southwest and south central through Saturday morning for dangerous
wind chills of 25 to 40 below.

Given the very cold start to this evening, and given the current
observed overnight temperature pattern, widespread lows of 25 to
30 below are favored for much of central and northwest North
Dakota for tonight into Saturday morning. Could certainly see a
few readings in the -30s in low areas. This is actually fairly
close to the 00 UTC suite consensus, with the bottom edge of the
forecast envelope too cold to use on a large scale.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Continued dangerous wind chills highlight the extended forecast.

The 00 UTC global suite favors a brief respite from the Arctic
air at least during the first half of Sunday, before the next
Arctic high builds across the Northern Plains Sunday night into
Tuesday with another round of dangerous wind chills expected for
the period. However, the 00 UTC suite also suggests that by late
next week the upper level patterns transitions to near zonal,
favoring a possible warm up to above normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period at all sites
except KDIK. Light snow and possible MVFR ceilings will continue
this morning across southwest North Dakota, potentially impacting
KDIK, becoming VFR around 18z.


Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for

Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Saturday for NDZ001>005-



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