Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171947
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS CLOUD COVER. RECENT VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CLOUDS ERODING ACROSS WESTERN ND WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW JUST PUSHING SOUTH OF ND WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BEHIND IT. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM EARLIER AND
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS...CLOSER TO
NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN PERFORMING BETTER. NAM BUFR
SOUNDING FOR BISMARCK KEEPS SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH RETURN FLOW BEHIND SURFACE RIDGE HELPING
WARM TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM NW TO SE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN CLOUDS...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS EAST AND NORTH OF ND. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING LONG WAVE
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. NAEFS SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO AS WELL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN 99TH PERCENTILE
ALONG RIDGE AXIS. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES THE RIDGE AXIS
PASS TO OUR EAST...THOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEHIND UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH CIGS AROUND
1000 FEET. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING ACROSS THE
WEST...INCLUDING KISN AND KDIK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS





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