Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181439
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
939 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Little change with this forecast update for today. A very strong
inversion per the 06 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR soundings continues to be
favored with strong warm air advection in the 900-700mb layer.
However, realization of this warming at the surface will be
difficult with unfavorable mixing via south-southeasterly surface
flow. Thus, expect widespread 30s and 40s central, with the
warmest readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s relegated to the
southwest where higher terrain will aid warming potential at the
surface.


UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

For early morning update have adjusted cloud cover a bit to
address mid level clouds pushing through the area. Have also
removed mention of fog as it has been reluctant to materialize
while winds start to perk up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

The Saturday morning forecast challenge will be patchy fog in
central areas of the state. Current observations illustrate
saturation in some northern and central areas. The 06Z RAP/HRRR
are in good agreement on fog developing and persisting in central
areas through at least 13Z; while lingering around the Jamestown
area through much of the morning. Pockets of dense fog may also
occur.

Otherwise, today looks to be fairly quiet. Upper level ridging will
begin nosing in from the west, allowing for dry and mostly warm
weather; central areas will be in the 30s, seasonably chilly.
Southerly winds will be breezy with gusts near 35 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

The main highlight of the long term forecast is a strong low
pressure system which is projected to develop in the Pacific
Northwest by Monday. Chances for rain and snow, from this system,
may impact the state in the latter half of the week. However, the
where and when are unknown as the current ensemble and deterministic
models are understandably struggling to get a good handle on this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 929 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 12 UTC TAF cycle. Breezy south-southeast winds with
gusts of 20-30kts are forecast area wide today ahead of a warm
front that will move across North Dakota tonight and occlude. Low
level wind shear is possible this evening and tonight ahead of the
front.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD



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