Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190625
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SO POPS WERE LOWERED ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WITH
THE PATH OF THE WAVE PRODUCING THIS THE CONVECTION SHOULD PASS
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HI- RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES
ALONG A LINE FROM EAST OF CARRINGTON TO NEAR WISHEK. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE EASTERLY TRACK AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION
INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HAIL/WIND AS
THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 22Z-23Z FRIDAY PER LATEST HRRR.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM
HARVEY TO STEELE...AND INTO LINTON. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A PERIOD OF LITTLE OR NO CIN AT KJMS BETWEEN 22Z FRIDAY AND 00Z
SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 03Z...WANING BY 06Z. PER SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE AXIS OF BETWEEN
1100-1400 J/KG EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL
CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. THUS SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSSESS
STRONG WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL THROUGH MID FRIDAY EVENING. THE
REST OF FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET AS STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY...A
LEE SIDE TROUGH SHARPENS IN EASTERN MONTANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST
NEAR/ALONG THE TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THE POSSIBLY EXTREME HEAT VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND WINDS ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
ZONAL...DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS SUNDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE HEAT INDEX IS FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 100 AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...HOWEVER WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHERLY
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
COULD PROVIDE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED AS THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT HEADLINES
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...KISN THROUGH KDIK...
AFTER 18Z/19TH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS HAPPENING TS WAS
NOT YET ADDED TO ANY TAFS. EXPECT A LIGHT NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS OF UP TO
15 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JPM



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