Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 152339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Current forecast looks good with no changes. Latest satellite
loops show a few wisps of cirrus clouds across western North
Dakota. With lee side low developing in eastern Montana Sunday
increasing southerly winds will develop late tonight. Boundary
layer should remain de-coupled until after sunrise then gusty
southerly winds will move to central North Dakota.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Southwest flow aloft persists across our region tonight and Sunday
as a large-scale upper level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest
continues to deepen. A significant shortwave emerging from the base
of this system is progged to move northeast across
Utah/Wyoming/Montana tonight and continues northeastward across ND
and into Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Sunday. The best forcing with this
system appears to be to our north in Canada, and will continue to
mention the chance of precipitation across northern ND Sunday.

At the surface, a low pressure center is progged to develop in the
lee of the Rockies over southern Alberta and Manitoba by Sunday
morning. This surface low and associated trough lifts northeast
during the day Sunday. Increasing southeasterly winds ahead of the
system reaching 15 to 20 mph...and southwesterly/westerly winds
behind the surface trough should develop Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Models continue to bring another upper level shortwave trough
emerging from the parent Pacific Northwest upper level trough,
taking it eastward across the US Rockies across Wyoming Sunday night
and across the Dakotas on Monday. As mentioned in previous
discussions, the models differ regarding how much moisture this
impulse will have and the timing of any expected precipitation
across ND. Today`s models appear to bring the best forcing with this
system across our area mainly Monday afternoon/night into Tuesday
morning as a surface low/east-west frontal boundary develops across
South Dakota.

The main upper level trough finally begins moving east across the
Rockies Tuesday/Wednesday, but digging farther south into the 4-
Corners area, bringing the best forcing and moisture to the southern
Plains and Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Thursday into next
weekend. As this occurs the models are suggesting a western ridge
building, expanding out of the desert southwest across the Rockies
and into the western states.

Regarding temperatures, highs n the 60s Monday cooling to highs in
the 40s/50 by Wednesday, then a slow recovery back into the 50s by
the end of the week with the aforementioned expanding western
ridge. Expect lows 35-45 Monday night, with lows in the 30s the rest
of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

VFR weather conditions are expected all TAF sites through the 00Z
forecast period. Lee side low pressure will develop across eastern
Montana and tonight and Sunday. Increasing low level winds will
cause wind shear surface to 2 thousand agl KBIS-KISN 10z-15z.




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