Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232057
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UTAH. AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE STATIONARY
FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
SOME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN COLORADO WILL MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. FAIRLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING A LOT, VARYING FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS EVEN FOG LATER TONIGHT.

AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WITH MODERATE SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SHEAR, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS INCLUDING ULYSSES AND LIBERAL, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 70S THERE. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST FROM DODGE
CITY EASTWARD, THEN HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE OPENING UP AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
MONDAY SETTING UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, A DRYLINE IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, A +80KT JET CORE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AN EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH MORE FINITE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
LATE MONDAY, GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER 80S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

IFR THEN LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS EVEN VISBYS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING BY 02-04Z AS LOW LEVEL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTS ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  74  57  79 /  30  30  20  10
GCK  59  77  52  78 /  20  40  20  10
EHA  56  78  51  77 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  60  78  54  79 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  73  57  78 /  40  30  20  20
P28  63  73  60  81 /  70  30  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH



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