Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010643
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
143 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  47 /  10  30  20   0
GCK  81  51  69  45 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  46 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  71  48 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  67  46 /  10  70  30  10
P28  89  61  73  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT


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