Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201714
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1114 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

...Updated the Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Finally a bit more interesting with regards to precipitation this
evening. After dusting off the radar scope, we have tracked
several scattered thunderstorms across mainly Barber and Pratt
counties, producing plenty of lightning and mainly brief downpours
of freezing rain and sleet. Vast majority of the activity has
been, and will continue to be, well east of us in central Kansas.
NAM/HRRR solutions show further convective development toward
5-6 AM Tuesday, but trends strongly suggest all of this action
will remain in Wichita`s CWA. Numerous snow showers are also in
progress across eastern Colorado and NW Kansas, which will miss
SW KS. So, effectively, SW KS is again being dryslotted with
badly-needed moisture on either side of us. Some areas of freezing
drizzle will remain possible through sunrise, mainly east of
US 283, as shown by 00z NAM. Will need to monitor for minor icing
overnight. Have dropped low temperatures Tuesday morning well down
into the teens, with cold advection expected to intensify toward
sunrise with increasing north winds. Incoming cold air
reinforcement is quite cold (currently 4 degrees at Akron,
Colorado) so still may not be cold enough. Expect widespread
stratus through morning with north winds gusting over 30 mph at
times. Wind chill indices will fall to near zero at sunrise.

Tuesday...It is still winter, and it will feel like it. Strong
cold/dry advection will continue all day, with north winds of
20-30 mph in the morning slowly relaxing during the afternoon.
Widespread low clouds will gradually erode during the morning
hours, as falling surface dewpoints evaporate the stratus. Near
full sunshine is expected by afternoon, so allowed for some
temperature recovery into the 30s. This is a fair bit below par
for February 20th (normal high is near 50).

Tonight...Mostly clear and cold. Surface high of 1030 mb near
Rapid City at 6 pm strengthens to a 1040 mb high in NE Nebraska
by sunrise Wednesday. As such, cold/dry advection will continue
on NE winds of 10-20 mph, with most locations falling into the
5-15 degree range Wednesday morning. With winds remaining
elevated, temperatures should be kept from falling any lower, but
the very dry ground will be increasing radiational cooling,
trying to counter this.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Dry weather will unfortunately continue to prevail over a very
thirsty SW Kansas. There will be a few opportunities for some
light precipitation, and we will certainly take whatever we can
get at this point.

Wednesday...Continued cold. Cold advection will continue on
NE winds, eminating from a 1040 mb Canadian surface high in
Wisconsin. With upslope and stratus, most locations are expected
to fail to reach freezing Wednesday afternoon. 00z NAM/GFS and
ECMWF are all in excellent agreement showing overrunning light
snow entering the SE zones late Wednesday, as the next shortwave
arrives embedded in the SW flow aloft. Pop grids are in the likely
category for the eastern counties Wednesday evening (Stafford,
Pratt, Barber), with thermal profiles suggesting snow will
transition to freezing rain with time. Some ice accumulation is
plausible across these areas Wednesday evening, and it will be
watched closely. Precipitation will end by sunrise Thursday as
shortwave exits.

Thursday...Yet another shortwave will eject out of the mean
longwave western U.S. trough, offering more light precipitation
potential. Chance category pops were retained. Most likely form is
freezing rain, but again QPF and coverage look modest.

Friday...Dry, with a break between shortwaves. Temperatures will
be allowed to moderate back into the 40s.

00z ECMWF drives the main trough axis into western Kansas on
Saturday, but it will be dampening and weakening as it arrives.
Another brief light wintry mix is offered by the model blend on
Saturday, but ECMWF is much drier for SW KS, with accumulating
snow remaining north of us (which would fit the trend we have
seen for months).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

A cold dome of high pressure will build across western Kansas over
the next 24 hours. The gusty northerly winds early this afternoon
will decrease during the late afternoon and are expected to fall
back to 10 knots or less after sunset. Clouds will be on the
increase overnight as moisture begins to improve in the 850mb to
600mb level ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. This
will bring an increase in VFR ceilings to western Kansas after
midnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31   9  28  18 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  29   7  30  17 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  32  12  31  18 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  33  12  31  19 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  26   7  30  15 /   0   0  10  20
P28  34  12  30  22 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert



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