Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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116
FXUS63 KDDC 231802
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
102 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

An amplified upper level trough will shift slowly east across the
Great Basin tonight and into western portions of the Central Rockies
Sunday providing an extremely difluent southwest flow aloft across
the Western High Plains during the period. Meanwhile, prevailing
southerlies will continue to provide sufficient moisture with
surface dewpoints remaining well up into the mid to upper 60s(F)
across the region. With convection already ongoing across much of
eastern Colorado in the vicinity of a near stationary frontal
boundary, expect a line of isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms to gradually drift eastward into extreme southwest
Kansas tonight as the front slowly approaches with individual cell
movement to the northeast. This will allow for prolonged periods of
rain as the line moves eastward resulting in rainfall amounts upward
of 1 to 3 inches based on PW values in excess of 1 inch and strong
QPF signals. A generaly amount of shear and a modest amount of
instability, with SBCAPE values in excess of 1000 to 1500 J/kg,
may be enough to support periods of strong thunderstorms with the
potential for marginally severe not completely ruled out. The line
of showers and thunderstorms is projected to push slowly eastward
across the remainder of southwest Kansas and into central Kansas
during the day Sunday.

Look for lows well down into the 60s(F) tonight. Much cooler air
will filter into west central and southwest Kansas Sunday capping
highs to just the 70s(F) across the area. Highs may still reach into
the 80s(F) in south central Kansas ahead of the frontal boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The upper level low will move into the Central Rockies Saturday
night into Sunday, then into the Northern Plains Monday into
Tuesday. The frontal boundary at the surface will continue to push
eastward with rain chances expected over the entire CWA Sunday and
Monday. Precipitation chances are then expected to end from west
to east Tuesday. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to continue
through Monday with decreasing cloudiness from west to east
Tuesday. Models suggest a drier weather paten Wednesday through
Friday as upper level system moves out of the area with high
pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. As for
temperatures, highs Sunday look to range from the mid 70s across
west central Kansas to upper 80s across south central Kansas.
Below normal temperatures are then expected for the first part of
next week and only rise into the lower 70s. Mid 70s are then
possible as we head into the late part of next week. Lows are
expected to range form around 80s degrees west to mid 60s across
south central Kansas Sunday night then range from the mid 40s west
to upper 50s east Monday night. Low in the mid 40s to low 50s are
then expected for the remainder of the long term forecast

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will then be
possible in the vicinity of KGCK and KLBL toward daybreak resulting
in possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Southerly winds 20 to 30kt will persist
across western Kansas through early this evening as a strong surface
low remains anchored across southeast Colorado. Winds may subside a
little later this evening and through the overnight hours with the
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  79  58 /  10  50  60  60
GCK  85  62  77  55 /  50  80  80  60
EHA  79  60  77  52 /  60  80  60  50
LBL  84  63  78  57 /  40  70  70  70
HYS  88  68  78  59 /  10  50  60  70
P28  90  68  86  65 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson



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