Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220625
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
125 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Any remnant precip chances across central Kansas early this morning
will quickly dissipate by late morning as an upper level shorwave kicks
east out of the Central Plains while drier air in the lower levels filters
southward into western Kansas. Meanwhile, upper level ridging moving
ashore off the Pacific will push eastward across the Intermountain West
later today setting up a drier pattern that will finish out the weekend.
Although surface high pressure dipping southward across the high plains
of western Kansas will reinforce a cooler air mass across the region
today, clearing skies should allow temperatures to climb a bit from
yesterday with highs well up into the 50s(F) to near 60F this afternoon.
Clearing skies and light and variable winds will allow temperatures
to drop Saturday night with lows easily falling into the 30s(F). Near
freezing temperatures may be possible further west near the Colorado
border, especially in low lying areas. Areas of frost will certainly
be a concern considering the onset of the growing season.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A drier period will persist across western Kansas through early next
week as upper level ridging moves eastward across the Western High
Plains into the Central Plains. A lack of instability and a weaker
flow aloft will keep precip chances out of the forecast Sunday. The
drier trend will continue Monday regardless of an upper level
shortwave pushing east across the Northern Plains and sending an
attendant cold front southward into western Kansas by mid to late
afternoon. Precip chances may return Tuesday as a progressive, but
weak upper level shortwave moves across the Rockies into the
Western High Plains. An attendant frontal boundary pushing into
western Kansas and an intensifying upper level jet dropping out of
the Pacific Northwest into the Central Rockies will re-introduce
the chance for showers/thunderstorms to the high plains toward mid
week.

A warming trend will continue Sunday as a prevailing low level
southerly flow draws warmer air up into the high plains with H85
temperatures ranging from around 10C in central Kansas to near 20C
along the Colorado border. Should see highs pushing up into the
lower to mid 70s(F) across southwest and portions of central
Kansas Sunday afternoon. Highs well up into the 80s(F) are likely
Monday afternoon even as a weak cold front begins pushing into
far western Kansas by mid to late afternoon as mentioned earlier.
Slightly cooler air filtering into the high plains behind the
front will halt the warming trend Tuesday with more seasonal highs
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

MVFR cigs are likely in the vicinity of KGCK and KLBL overnight as
prevailing low level stratus slowly lifts and scatters out through
daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites
through early Saturday evening. Light and variable winds will persist
across western Kansas through Saturday afternoon as surface high
pressure sinks southward across the Western High Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  58  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  36  58  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  57  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  37  58  33  72 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  39  58  36  70 /  30   0   0   0
P28  41  58  37  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson


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