Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252318
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
518 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MINIMUMS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MID 20S WEST TO LOWER 30S EAST VIA DOWNSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ALSO SLIGHT INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. MAXIMUMS WILL BE
IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATE WEEK INTO FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WARM-UP IS STILL ON
TRACK. FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE THREE DAYS
(THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY) THAT WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH AN
UPDATED FORECAST HIGH OF 69 AT DODGE CITY AND LOWER 70S TO THE WEST
TO THE COLORADO BORDER. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT, SATURDAY MAY
BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH LOWER 70S SPREADING TO DODGE CITY WITH
UPPER 60S TO A PRATT-MEDICINE LODGE LINE.  THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE 700-500MB LAYER,
WHICH IS WHY THE 850MB MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS IN RESPONSE OFF THE
ECMWF SEEM MORE APPROPRIATE. NEVERTHELESS, OFFICIAL HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL STILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN ECMWF, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE
OVER THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL HIGH FOR SATURDAY.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH, HOWEVER, AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BE CHARGING SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE ON BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS, SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURE RIGHT AT SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REGION BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE COOLER ECMWF MODEL IS
FAVORED GIVEN PAST PERFORMANCE IN SIMILAR TYPE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTRUSIONS LIKE WHAT WILL BE SEEING SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE WE USE FOR MAX/MINT (IN THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST) WAS LOWERED,
IN FAVOR OF ADDING GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE MOST RECENT AND
COOLER CONSRAW (CONSENSUS RAW TEMPERATURES FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS
LIKE THE GFS, CANADIAN GEM, ECMWF). GIVEN HOW SHALLOW THIS AIRMASS
WILL BE SUNDAY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONSIDERING HOW ZONAL THIS FLOW WILL BE ALOFT AND
THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS AT ~700MB LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS EVOLVE GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP TROUGH IS SUGGESTED COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WOULD ACTUALLY FAVOR SOME WARMING OF THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE AND
AN EVENTUAL EROSION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS BATTLE IS
ALWAYS A BIG CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST, SO THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES (AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES) GO
EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THAT THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATED ONLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AT 21Z
TUESDAY WILL DROP SOUTH AND CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM, NMM, HRRR, AND RAP WERE ALL IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE TIMING OF
THESE MODELS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z WEDNESDAY AT GCK AND HYS, AND THEN DDC AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  48  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  48  23  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  28  51  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  29  51  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  32  44  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  35  50  25  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT



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