Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through late
Sunday afternoon as short range models indicate an upper level
shortwave trough pushing further east into the Great Lakes Region,
giving way to a more zonal flow aloft across the Western High
Plains. Meanwhile, broad surface high pressure will drift east-
southeast across the Northern and Central Plains ushering much
drier air southward into the high plains. Along with a weakening
flow aloft and little instability, precip chances will remain
absent across the region through the remainder of the weekend.

Clearing skies, light winds, and much cooler air filtering southward
into western Kansas will allow temperatures to drop well below normal
tonight. Considering surface dewpoints are already falling into the
40s(F), look for lows well down into the 50s(F) with a few upper 40s(F)
possible in some locations, particularly across central Kansas near
the I-70 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Precip chances will pick up a little Monday evening as medium
range models indicate a weak upper level shortwave lifting
northeast across the Southern Rockies into the Western High
Plains early in the period. As the upper level system approaches,
a prevailing low level southerly flow will gradually draw
moisture northward into southwest Kansas with H85 dewpoints
climbing back above 10C. Although the flow aloft will remain less
than favorable, thunderstorms are likely to develop late Monday
afternoon in the vicinity of a lee side trough across eastern
Colorado. A few storms could potentially reach west central and
southwest Kansas Monday evening and overnight. However, the
potential for severe storms is marginal at best.

The focus for thunderstorms shifts further into Kansas Tuesday as
a deepening surface low and an associated dryline across eastern
Colorado are projected to push east into western Kansas. Increasing
instability and a slightly strengthening upper level jet lifting
northeast out of the Desert Southwest will set the stage for
stronger thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Regardless
of how far east the dryline advances, the best chance for
thunderstorms looks to be across central and south central
Kansas.

A warming trend can be expected through at least Tuesday as a
prevailing low level southerly flow draws warmer air back north
into western Kansas. Highs will reach the 80s(F) Monday afternoon
with the lower to mid 90s(F) possible Tuesday afternoon. Another
cold front pushing through western Kansas mid week will drop highs
back down below normal by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Northerly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across western
Kansas through late this afternoon as surface high pressure moves
slowly east-southeast into the Northern and Central Plains. Winds
will then become light and variable tonight as the surface high
continues to shift across the Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  55  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  55  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  55  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  55  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  77  52  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  80  55  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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