Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Updated long term section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

As upper level ridge of high pressure extends from the Desert
Southwest northeast through the Central Plains and into Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile, two upper level long wave troughs are
present with one entering the Pacific Northwest and the other
entering the eastern United States. The 12Z sounding shows large
dew point depressions from the upper levels to somewhat close to
the surface which is leading to mostly clear skies. At the
surface, a ridge axis of high pressure extends from central
Nebraska into southeastern Colorado. This leads to north to
northeast winds across a majority of western Kansas with southerly
winds across the remainder of eastern Colorado and western
Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected to continue
tonight into tomorrow with some elevated smoke from wildfires
across the Pacific Northwest. Winds become light and variable
overnight as the ridge axis slides through the area. Southerly
winds return by sunrise tomorrow as lee troughing develops across
eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows overnight look to fall
to around 60 degrees with highs tomorrow reaching into the lower
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A dry pattern will continue through Monday as a ridge of high
pressure sits over the Southern Rockies and Central Plains. A few
shortwaves will move through the northwest United States during
this period but should not affect western Kansas. These shortwaves
will allow lee troughing to continue across eastern Colorado
leading to southerly winds across the area. The atmosphere will
remain dry with mostly clear skies expected through Monday. An
upper level shortwave may move through the central Rockies Monday
night into Tuesday which could increase cloudiness across portions
of the CWA with a slight chance of thunderstorms across west
central and central Kansas. Otherwise dry conditions will continue
through Thursday. A better chance of thunderstorms is possible
late week into this weekend as models suggest a shortwave moving
closer to the area. However, confidence is low that this will
occur. As for temperatures, highs look to reach into the mid 90s
Monday and Tuesday with lows generally in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Highs then are expected to only reach into the lower 90s for
the remainder of the week with lows continuing to bottom out in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Broad surface high pressure will continue to provide light surface
winds and VFR flight categories at KDDC, KGCK. KHYS is likely to
remain VFR as well, however, stratus moving south through north
central Kansas will have to be monitored for for the next few hours
for potential amendment.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  91  64  96 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  59  92  63  97 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  60  93  65  96 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  61  93  64  98 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  59  91  64  97 /   0   0   0  10
P28  60  92  66  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell


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