Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

000
FXUS63 KDDC 140800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rex Block synoptic pattern will begin to take shape early this
  weekend, and persist through almost the entire forecast
  period resulting in little impactful weather.

- Only weather element worth mentioning will be a cold snap
  Monday morning as temperatures plunge below freezing for many
  locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Radar observations across southwest KS reveal scattered showers
and a weak thunderstorm or two as of 0730Z Thursday morning.
Latest CAMs suggest this activity will continue to percolate
through much of Thursday, especially over the western zones, as
forcing for ascent ahead of a strong, but retrograding upper
level wave maintains a grip over the central plains. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy to overcast as well thanks to this trough
and a slight upslope component to the post-frontal winds,
supporting a much cooler day for most of our area, save for the
far southeast zones where fewer clouds are expected. As a
result, a relatively wide range of afternoon highs will exist
with temperatures reaching only the mid/upper 40s northwest to
the upper 60s southeast. Thursday night, radiational cooling
will be significantly muted owing to cloudy skies and brisk
north-northeasterly winds, but lows will still range from the
low 30s northwest to low 40s southeast.

Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree the strong upper
level wave will remain largely stationary over the far
southwest CONUS, allowing weak shortwave ridging to take shape
over the central plains. In response, surface high pressure will
build into southwest KS, fostering weakening northeast winds
and more sunshine that will permit afternoon highs to reach the
mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Medium range ensembles are in agreement suggesting the strong
upper low over the far southwestern CONUS will move very little
through much of the long term period. In fact, ensembles show
an upper level ridge will build to the north of this low as the
northern branch of the westerlies becomes highly amplified,
leaving southwest KS between the resulting Rex Block over the
western CONUS and a powerful longwave trough over east/northeast
North America. This kind of synoptic pattern will bring little
in terms of significant weather elements to our area, other
than a few cold air intrusions. At the moment, the most notable
cold snap appears to be Monday morning, as surface high pressure
builds into the central plains behind a cold front. Latest EPS
probability of sub-freezing temperatures is in the 50-80% range
for the northern half of our FA, and this is reflected in the
NBM lows that morning in the mid 20s near I-70 to the low 30s
along the KS/OK border. Otherwise, afternoon highs each day
through the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s, lows
will be in the mid 30s to low 40s, and no appreciable
opportunities for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR flying conditions are prevailing across all terminals at the
beginning of this TAF cycle, with northerly winds of 10-15 kts.
These conditions will continue until around 12-14Z Thursday
morning when low stratus sinks southward across the area,
dropping cigs across all terminals into high-end MVFR/low-end
VFR. Concurrently, northerly winds will increase into the 15-20
kt range with gusts of 25-30 kts, and persist through much of
the day. Shortly after sunset, winds will weaken slightly, but
remain in the 12-17 kt range through the end of the period. Cigs
may be beginning to improve during the 04-06Z Friday time
frame, but confidence is low.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.