Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220910
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
410 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016



.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

In the very near term, a few isolated, outflow enhanced showers
and weak thunderstorms may be found as far east as the highway 83
corridor, which somewhat mirrors a few recent HRRR runs for the
early morning reflectivity trends. Little impact is expected from
these elevated showers other than a   brief  moderate shower and
isolated early morning lightning. Hot conditions are forecast once
again today as a strong 700 mb ridge influences the central High
Plains. The heat advisory is again in effect for this afternoon
roughly northeast of a Dighton to Coldwater line. A few more
thunderstorms are possible again tonight, however under the same
conditions updrafts would be weak, and with minimal impacts.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Thunderstorms generally have a better chance of occurrence each day
going forward, as the atmosphere become less stable in the mid
levels and the 700 mb hot ridge begins to weaken. Temperatures are
forecast by the models to return closer to the normal mid summer
highs and lows, bringing slight relief to the hot weather of the
last few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

A cluster of elevated showers and thunderstorms were moving
through west central CO into NW KS, in an area of extremely
steering flowwith no significant shear. Propogation will not be
much further east during the overnight, however it is possible a
decaying shower could reach as far as KGCK by 9-12 UTC. Other than
that, VFR conditions are forecast for another day as a dominant
upper high influences th eweather.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 103  75 102  74 /  10  10  20  20
GCK 102  74  99  71 /  20  20  30  30
EHA 103  72 102  71 /  20  20  40  40
LBL 105  71 103  71 /  10  10  30  30
HYS 103  75 101  72 /  20  20  20  30
P28 106  77 104  77 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-044>046-
064>066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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