Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND FLATTEN OUT
SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST TO EDGE EAST TOWARD
THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER WYOMING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND OVERTAKE WESTERN KANSAS. I EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE
THROUGH SCOTT CITY AND HAYS BY 08Z, THE GARDEN CITY AREA BY 11Z,
AND THROUGH THE DODGE CITY AREA BY 13Z ON TUESDAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IT EXPECTED WITH THIS FROPA, BUT SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA OR EVEN A FEW
SPRINKLES JUST BEHIND THE FRONT PASSAGE, BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS
EXPECTED.  DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE TIMING OF THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH, WINDS SHIFTING SHARPLY TO THE NORTH, AND THE VARIABLE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 40S IN THE HAMILTON COUNTY
AREA, TO THE LOWER 50S FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO ELKHART, AND TO
NEAR 60F DEGREES IN BARBER COUNTY WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE LAST, AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20G30MPH RANGE IN THE WAKEENEY,
SCOTT CITY, AND GARDEN CITY AREAS EARLY TUESDAY, AND GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 15G25MPH RANGE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON TUESDAY, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL
BE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST FROM LAKIN TO WAKEENEY, TO THE
LOWER 70S FROM LA CROSSE TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL, AND TO AS HIGH
AS THE MIDDLE 70S IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THERE IS LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING TO SUGGEST A BIG CHANGE IN THE
GENERALLY MILD AND DRY REGIME IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY
ACTIVE IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE INDIAN OCEAN WITH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL ACTIVITY AROUND THE MARITIME CONTINENT. AN
ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. LARGE SCALE DIVERGENCE IS POORLY
ORGANIZED, AND ANY PROJECTION ONTO A MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS
NEBULOUS AT BEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH
FORECASTS OF EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE IMPACT
ON MID LATITUDE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN.

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH A BASE STATE CHARACTERIZED BY
RIDGING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH IN
THE EAST IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NOVEMBER. THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA NEAR 155W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE WESTERLIES AND FINALLY WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
BAROCLINIC CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY, AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER
THAN A WIND SHIFT WHEN THE FRONT PASSES. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDINESS, AND A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHARP MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY WITH
RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S, AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A MINOR WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD SOME THIN CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE CIRRUS LIKELY WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO
HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING.

PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT INGESTED THE REMNANTS OF ANA MOVES
INTO ALBERTA. LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TO FAR WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING, BUT LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
AMPLIFY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SHARP RIDGE NEAR 105W. A COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY, AND THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL WILL
INVADE THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN
EAST OF KANSAS, BUT A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
THE COLD TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND LIKELY IS OVERDOING THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN KANSAS. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE EVEN WARMER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL RUN, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING IS NOT HIGH. THE
PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE SUPPORTS A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MIXING TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR RAIN 3-4 NOVEMBER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TO SUM UP, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THERE IS A COLD FRONT
PLOWING SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD CROSS THROUGH KHYS BY 09Z, BY
KGCK BY 11Z, AND BY THE KDDC TAF SITE BY 13Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, AND BLOW AT 16G28KT. STILL,
ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AND JUST A LITTLE CHANCE
FOR SPRINKLES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  53  72  38 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  88  49  70  35 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  88  52  67  36 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  90  53  71  37 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  86  51  68  36 /   0   0  10  10
P28  91  60  77  42 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...BURKE



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