Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING WHILE THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING
INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A MODEST +70KT JET IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A REASONABLE CAP WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES
PICK UP A LITTLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AS A
RESULT, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL INCREASE,
ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F A POSSIBILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) LIKELY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THIS MORNING`S RUN OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
NEARLY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. THUS 20 PERCENT POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONLY LEFT IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
FROM MEADE TO PRATT MONDAY EVENING, AND EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE
UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS AND
LACROSSE AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY, SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING LARNED AND PRATT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AND THEN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE
IS NOT TOO STRONG, AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH BECOMING
THE FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN OUR WEST NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS
ACROSS ALL OUR FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK DOWN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN WALLER BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE CONSALL MODEL BLEND PLACED 30 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DUE TO A FRONT AND SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
TUESDAY, AND WARM INTO THE 84F TO 90F DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE 55F TO 65F DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR (PARTICULARLY FOR KHYS) AS POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MOVES IN
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. A WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  58  72  55 /   0  10  20  10
GCK  86  57  68  54 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  87  60  69  56 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  87  60  74  57 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  80  57  70  50 /   0  20  20  10
P28  85  65  80  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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