Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 142306
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A strong cold front will move through this evening as a
shortwave trough passes. Cool surface high pressure will
build in behind the front by Sunday morning into Monday
morning. Northwesterly mid to upper level flow will develop
by Monday afternoon with a resultant surface trough in the
lee of the Rockies. This pattern will persist through early
Wednesday. By late week, upper level troughing will develop
along the west coast, with southwesterly mid to high level
flow over the plains. This will result in continued lee side
troughing at the surface. There is lots of uncertainty with the
large scale pattern by next weekend with the ECMWF showing
an upper level low closing off over the Desert Southwest and
other models being more progressive.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A line of showers and thunderstorms was ongoing in a subtropical
plume over southern Kansas and this activity will fester until
the front passes. New storms will develop as the cold front
charges into southern Kansas this evening and reaches the
rich low level moisture. These storms could have some damaging
wind gusts but hail potential is minimal due to lack of shear.
Winds should be 25 to 35 mph for a while with gusts as high as 45
mph this evening before gradually subsiding late tonight. Freeze
warning was expanded into Scott county with frost advisory father
east into Finney and Lane counties southwestward to Morton county.
Winds are expected to drop to light before sunrise allowing for
the near or just above freezing temperatures in these areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Some frost is possible Monday morning due to continued light winds
and dewpoints in the upper 20s. However, southwest winds may pick
up to 5 to 10 kts early Monday morning and this may prevent
temperatures from really bottoming out. Quiet weather can be
expected after Monday with a warming trend due to the surface
troughing and resultant south winds. Highs should warm into the
70s through Friday and probably on through the weekend. Chances
for rain next weekend will depend on the exact evolution of the
long wave pattern and there is a large amount of variability in
the models. The earliest chance of showers and thunderstorms is
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Strong north to northwest winds had already developed across
southwest Kansas as of 23z Saturday as the surface cold front
moves across south central Kansas. Sustained wins of 25 to 30
knots still appear possible for the next several hours before
beginning to slowly subsiding after 03z Sunday. Wind gusts of
around 40 knots will also be possible through 03z. After 06z
Sunday the wind speeds are expected to be around 20 knots and
after 09z Sunday the northwest winds will range from 10 to 15
knots as an area of high pressure at the surface begins to build
into western Kansas. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions
overnight and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  63  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  32  63  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  33  63  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  35  63  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  35  63  37  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  40  63  39  71 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Sunday for KSZ043-061-062-074.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ044-063-075-
084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert



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