Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

A warm front will continue to lift northward through the overnight hours.
The net result is a warmer night with mins in the lows 50s northwest
to upper 50s southeast. Some of the meso models indicate the potential
for morning fog. SREF probabilities are the highest across northwest
Kansas. Have fog east of a line from Liberal to Lakin. The more dense
fog could remain north of the forecast area, but later shifts can monitor
as trends become more apparent.

Otherwise, for the rest of tomorrow, we will see warmer highs with the
continued warm air advection. Highs should peak in the lower 80s. There
will be a chance of showers and storms in the eastern zones. Main upper
level support appears to be delayed, so the timing is not the best with
this system. It should be noted that some of the CAMs do not break out
storms until well after dark. Anyway, moisture advection is best across
the eastern zones along with low level lift. Depending on when storms
develop, there could be marginally severe storms, however, both shear
and instability are on the marginal side.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

It will be a bit breezy Wednesday in the wake of a passing front. Highs
will be slightly cooler as well with more 70s than 80s. Chances of precipitation
looks rather bleak for the rest of the long term forecast domain. This
is due to a big ridge setting up shop over the greater region. Warmer
temps are possible by the end of the week as downslope southwesterly
flow develops. ECE guidance is warmer than MEX. Something to watch.
RHs look marginal at this time for RFW concerns, but again, this is
something to watch if Tds mix lower. The rest of the period will see
in an ebb and flow in temps, but above normal overall.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Shortwave over western Arizona this evening will affect SW KS
terminals through the TAF period. Moisture continues to increase
courtesy of SE boundary layer flow tonight, with dewpoints well
into the 50s. Will keep an eye out for stratus or advection fog,
but with no signs of it developing and many short term models
not forecasting it, will leave out of TAFs for now. Did mention
SW LLWS overnight as 850 mb winds increase. Widespread high clouds
will thicken and lower through Tuesday morning, with mid-layer
overcast expected by 15z Tue. After 15z Tue, SW winds of 18-28 kts
at HYS/DDC, a few kts weaker at GCK. Scattered -TSRA expected to
develop by 03z Wed, and included VCTS at HYS/DDC.


DDC  55  81  53  80 /   0   0  30   0
GCK  52  82  49  79 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  52  85  51  78 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  54  84  51  80 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  53  80  51  76 /   0  10  30   0
P28  58  79  57  80 /   0   0  40  10




LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.