Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251741
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Precip chances pick up a little later today as a weak upper level
trough begins to deepen as it digs southeastward across the Great
Basin into the Central and Southern Rockies, and in turn, setting
up an intensifying difluent southwest flow aloft across the
Western High Plains. Short range models show the surface low in
southeast Colorado pushing slowly eastward across southwest into
central Kansas early this morning as an attendant cold front to
the approaching upper level system begins to move into northwest
and west central Kansas. Although instability will be rather limited,
favorable dynamic support aloft combined with ample forcing along
the front may be enough to kick up a few showers later this
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out,
but anything severe is unlikely with weak instability and less
than favorable shear profiles. The better chance for appreciable
rainfall will be later tonight as a series of stronger H5 vort
maxima cycle through the approaching trough axis and lift northeast
across southwest and central Kansas just as H85-7 frontogenetic
banding develops across the same general area. With model soundings
showing profiles saturating this evening from mid level moisture
advection, the chance for rain will increase, particularly near
and along the Oklahoma border where the better forcing is expected.

Cooler temperatures are likely today as an approaching cold front
pushes through much of western Kansas by early to mid afternoon.
Highs may struggle to reach the 60s(F) across west central Kansas,
especially with increased cloud cover likely. The 70s(F) are still
expected in south central Kansas before the front moves through
later this afternoon. Colder air filtering down into western Kansas
behind the front tonight will drop lows down into the 30s(F) across
west central and portions of southwest Kansas to the lower to mid
40s(F) in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Any lingering rain showers across central Kansas early Wednesday
morning will quickly dissipate by mid day as medium range models
show the upper level shortwave trough pushing further eastward
across the Central Plains toward the Mississippi River Valley.
After a brief break Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday,
precip chances return Thursday afternoon/evening as another upper
level shortwave transitions through the northwest flow across the
Intermountain West, helping to eject a series of H5 vort maxima out
of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado and
western Kansas. Interacting with another developing surface low lee
of the Rockies and an attendant frontal boundary, periods of showers
and potential isolated thunderstorms will be possible from late
Thursday into the weekend as the approaching upper level trough
deepens while digging further southeast across the Four Corners
Region into the South Plains.

Well below normal temperatures are likely Wednesday as colder air
surges southward into western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal
passage the day prior. Highs are only expected up into the 50s(F)
Wednesday afternoon, especially across central Kansas where
lingering cloud cover is likely through at least the early part of
the day. Highs may push closer to 60F in extreme southwest Kansas
depending on how quickly any cloud cover scatters out. High
temperatures will be slow to warm up much through the end of the
week with little change to the general air mass across the high
plains. Another drop off in temperatures is possible this weekend
as the GEM/ECMWF show another surge of colder air dropping into
the high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

MVFR stratus that developed behind a cold front over central and western
Kansas this morning is expected to slowly rise into the VFR category
later this afternoon. An upper level disturbance moving out of New
Mexico will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly
to the southwest Kansas terminals this evening. Will carry VCSH to
reflect this. Another surge of colder air will move through southwest
Kansas late this evening which will bring gusty north winds to the
area through the remainder of tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  37  57  38 /  30  50  10   0
GCK  58  36  58  38 /  30  50  10   0
EHA  61  37  60  40 /  40  60  10  10
LBL  63  38  59  40 /  30  60  10   0
HYS  54  37  55  35 /  20  30  10   0
P28  72  42  56  38 /  20  40  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard



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