Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SURFACE LOW NEAR SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS...WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...SUPPORTED BY 5-8 MB/3 HOURLY PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION VIA NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
INTO THE TEENS/20S BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND A BIT FURTHER BY
DAYBREAK. THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
KANSAS REGION THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER-MIDDLE
20S...ABOUT 25-30 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. ISOLATED
BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS PM/EARLY EVE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN
20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER...ALTHOUGH BETTER UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE WESTWARD INTO
COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CARVING OUT OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKER PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE DEVELOPING WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH...ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD YIELD AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. THIS ROUND COULD YIELD 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE NEXT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
850-700 LAYER FLOW INCREASES RAMPING UP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY
MODERATE ACCUMULATING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT. 850
TEMPERATURES AND TOP DOWN APPROACH VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST A
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WOULD ANTICIPATE A
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE POSSIBILITY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS TRAVEL
COULD BE IMPACTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIGS INTO THE
BACKSIDE KEEPING THE TROUGH INTACT. THIS WILL SUPPORT COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH WITH
CONTINUED...AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  14  23   5  22 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  14  23   5  21 /  20  10  30  40
EHA  15  24   8  20 /  30  30  40  40
LBL  17  23   6  20 /  20  20  30  40
HYS  11  22   4  24 /  10  10  10  10
P28  18  23   5  24 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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