Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW MINOR ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR TODAY. FIRST, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE UPSLOPE AND THERE STILL IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. EVEN THE NORMALLY CATACLYSMIC
HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE, SO WILL KEEP IT
PATCHY IN THE WX GRIDS. NEXT IS CONVECTION. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE 4
KM NAM AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM ARE CONTINUING TO PERFORM POORLY. THE
GFS IS IN THE SAME FAILED PERFORMANCE CAMP. AS A RESULT, WAS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
THOUGH IF MOST OF THE AREA WAS DRY LIKE DESCRIBED FROM THE ARW-WRF.
BOISE VERIFICATION STILL SHOWS THE WARM BIAS IN THE MODELS, SO WENT
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. UPPER 80S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE OPERATIONAL NAM HAS A QPF SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH 850-HPA ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS. THE
CONTINUED SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER LOOK LIKE A REASONABLE FIRST ORDER APPROXIMATION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  85  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  65  86  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  63  86  64  89 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  66  85  65  90 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  67  89  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  84  68  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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