Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
615 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Today is the calm ahead of the storm. Pleasant temperatures are expected
today as the warm sector prevails across SW Kansas. Highs will range
from the 60s north to 70s south. There will be a wind shift as a frontal
system moves across the forecast district. Any precipitation is not
expected until this evening. This is the system that will continue
to impact our region through the weekend. Lows Saturday morning will
be coldest across the western zones - low 30s, and a frost/freeze headline
might be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Most of the attention was spent on this weekend. A strong synoptic
wave will move across the region and deepen across the Southern and
Central Plains. Southwest Kansas could be ideally situated on the deformation/trowal
axis side for heavy precipitation. This includes a heavy wet snow that
is possible late Saturday and into Sunday. As the synoptic system deepens,
strong low level winds will only add to the problem. The models tonight
are continuing to trend colder and wetter as they did last night. QPF
from the GFS/EC/ARW/NMMB/GEM are all very impressive with heavy amounts
across the forecast district. Right now, have 1-3" across the forecast
district through the storm duration. Bufkit plumes are also continuing
to show a trend to higher snowfall amounts across far western Kansas,
as 850-hPa temperatures fall below 0C. Have increased snowfall amounts
across far western Kansas with warning amounts now forecast. The heavy
snowfall axis will probably need to be fine tuned as the storm draws
near and uncertainty decreases. There is enough signal though in both
global and mesoscale models to start being concerned about a high impact
event with heavy rainfall to start out the storm... transitioning to
a heavy wet snow through the second half of the weekend. The heavy
wet snow could have serious impacts and could lead to downed tree limbs
and power outages. It also should be noted that the highs and lows
during the weekend are subject to a bust. Temps could be considerably
colder than what is currently forecast should the precip hang around
as well as with heavy snowfall/snowpack. The ground is warm, but the
long duration of the snow in combination with the dynamics/lift (trowal/deformation
band) leads to a concern. The synoptic low may slow down Sunday, which
could lead to additional problems. Confidence on this is not high,
as some of the models eject the disturbance quickly with isentropic
downglide developing in its wake. Issued a winter weather watch to
address the overall concern. The watch area and snow amounts will
need to be adjusted as the smaller details become clear. Have added
a buffer to the end warning time on Sunday in case the low slows down
and impacts the forecast district longer.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Models are in decent agreement with the areas of IFR and MVFR
stratus early this morning across north central Kansas eroding by
15z Friday. VFR conditions will then continue through the
remainder of the day. Ceilings will once again lower after 00z
Saturday as moisture an isentropic lift begins to improve. Winds
today will be northerly at around 10 knots. After 00z Saturday
these northerly winds will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range
as widespread rain spreads across western Kansas.


DDC  69  36  40  33 /  30 100 100  90
GCK  66  34  37  32 /  50 100 100  90
EHA  66  30  34  29 /  70 100 100  90
LBL  70  36  39  32 /  70 100 100  90
HYS  62  38  40  35 /  20 100 100  90
P28  73  44  48  38 /  20 100 100  90


Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ043-061-062-074-075-084-085.



LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.