Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161104
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

A strong winter storm may have lingering impacts across portions
of southwest and central Kansas early today as short range models
show a closed off upper level low lifting slowly northward across
central and eastern Kansas through early this afternoon. Meanwhile,
strong H5 vort maxima will continue to cycle around the low as it
pivots northward across the Central Plains, in turn, setting off
further redevelopment of precipitation bands across much of western
Kansas. Also taking into consideration recent radar trends and
expected surface temperatures, freezing rain is likely to linger
across central and portions of southwest Kansas through late this
morning before dissipating. A few tenths to potentially a half
inch of additional ice accumulation is possible. A brief
switchover to snow is still possible across west central and
extreme southwest Kansas toward daybreak as colder air begins
filtering southward across the high plains. Generally light
amounts of snow are possible. Have already extended the Ice Storm
Warning until 18Z. Otherwise, precip chances will end by this
evening with drier conditions taking hold through Monday night.

As for temperatures today, little change to the overall air mass and
prevailing mostly cloudy to overcast skies will limit highs to the
30s(F) this afternoon. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) Monday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 132 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Dry conditions can be expected through the end of the week as medium
range models continue to show weak upper level ridging moving out of
the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during the period.
An extremely weak flow aloft and drier air in the lower/mid levels
moving into western Kansas will limit precip chances across the area
through at least Friday. A warming trend can be expected through the
end of the week as a developing lee side trough creates a west to
southwesterly flow across western Kansas through week`s end, in turn
helping to draw warmer air into the high plains. Well above normal
temperatures remain likely by Thursday with highs reaching the
50s(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 502 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Models were in good agreement this morning with an upper low
lifting northeast into central Kansas by the early afternoon. The
precipitation that will develop on the northwest side of this
upper low this morning is currently expected to continue through
noon and then also lift northeast after 18z. Low IFR or even LIFR
ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be expected with this
precipitation early today. Once the precipitation ends the
visibilities will improve, however ceilings are forecast to stay
in the IFR category through at least early tonight. North to
northeast winds at around 15 knots this morning will shift to the
northwest at around 15 knots during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  26  40  26 /  70  10   0   0
GCK  35  24  39  22 /  70  20  10   0
EHA  35  23  46  28 /  50  20   0   0
LBL  35  26  43  27 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  33  25  40  25 /  90  20   0   0
P28  37  27  45  28 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>079-084>087.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for KSZ080-
081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert



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