Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Fog has started to develop over parts of northern Kansas with visibilities
dropping at Great Bend and Hill City at this time. This is in an area
to the north of a weak frontal boundary that pushed into the area on
Saturday. Short term models such as the HRRR and RAP13 have been indicating
this over the past several runs. HiRes ARW and NMM have also shown this
and actually develop lower visibilities farther south into south central
Kansas. Previous shift issued a dense fog advisory for the area along
and north of a Jetmore- Kinsley- Stafford line which should be sufficient
but will have to watch areas farther south to see if any widespread
development occurs early this morning. Any fog/stratus that develops
should burn off by mid/late morning.

Models indicate the axis of a flat upper level shortwave ridge moving
from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley by this
evening with increasing west southwesterly flow aloft over the central
High Plains. A broad fetch of low level downslope flow will set up
today across the region. This will result in another very warm day
with highs mainly in the 90s across southwest Kansas. Parts of central
Kansas around Hays will be the slowest to warm as the frontal boundary
will take a while to clear that area and this will make temperature
forecasting a little more tricky. Will keep high temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s in that area but they could warm up well into the 90s
if downslope winds push through this afternoon.

Mild temperatures in the 50s will continue overnight as the warm
airmass remains in place.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Monday will continue very warm as downslope flow continues. Highs
will once again rise into the 90s. By Monday evening, a fast moving
shortwave trough passing through the northern Plains will push a
cold front south across western Kansas. This will usher in cooler
temperatures with daytime highs back into the upper 60s and 70s.

By Wednesday, another strong shortwave trough will cross the
northern and central High Plains. The GFS model seems to have
backed off on the idea of a strong closed upper low developing
somewhere east of the High Plains later in the week with both it
and the ECMWF showing a progressive system. Given that this system
will be slightly positively tilted as it moves out, the best
chances for any significant precipitation will likely be east of
south central and southwest Kansas. Will keep some very small pops
up along I-70 where a few showers could develop along and north of
the vorticity max and upper jet.

Warmer temperatures will return to the region late in the week as
upper level ridging builds back over the central Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

West to southwest winds will prevail through the period. The
extremely dry airmass in place will yield continued VFR as well.
Late morning through late afternoon wind speeds will be in the 12
to 15 knot range, gusting to 20 knots at times, with overnight
winds less than 8 knots as a general rule.


Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Fire weather headlines will continue through this afternoon and
also on Monday. A very anomalously warm (and dry) airmass will
continue, thanks largely in part due to the massive Pacific
Northwest storm system leading to aggressive downslope conditions
off the Rockies. On Monday, widespread mid to upper 90s will
expand across southwest Kansas with a 3 to 5 hour period of less
than 15 percent RH forecast. Minimum RH Monday could be in the
extremely dry 7 to 10 percent range, especially west of U283 and
south of the Arkansas River. Wind speeds will be marginally Red
Flag, but even brief gusts to 25 mph will be dangerous given the
single-digit RH environment. A cold front will push through Monday
evening, ending the critical fire weather threat for the
foreseeable future.


DDC  93  56  92  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  94  52  93  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  94  55  95  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  96  54  95  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  88  53  90  50 /  10   0   0   0
P28  91  61  93  56 /   0   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-080-084>089.



LONG TERM...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.