Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160514
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Breezy S/SE winds and seasonably warm/hot this afternoon with
scattered cirrus. Most locales will top out in the lower 90s, on
par for mid August. Dewpoints in the 60s will be maintained, and
instability (MLCAPE) axis currently seen on mesoanalysis across
W/NW Kansas will persist and strengthen. 12z NAM increases CAPE
to near 3000 J/kg across the western zones 5-7 pm.

Convective evolution this evening through tonight is a challenge,
and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. Numerous
factors lead to a high confidence in thunderstorms across western
Kansas through tonight. Primary shortwave over Utah at midday will
continue to advance into Kansas through tonight, but the eastward
timing looks slow enough that it may prevent a higher end
thunderstorm event from occurring. 12z GFS doesn`t get its
primary shortwave to the CO/KS border until late tonight/sunrise.
Still, forcing for ascent is sufficient on GFS ahead of this wave,
to generate showers and thunderstorms all night. NAM/ECMWF offer a
similar timing. It appears the NAM picks up on a leading secondary
vorticity max that ignites a strong MCS across SW KS this evening.
CAMs, typical of summer, are wildly divergent and offer little
assistance. Conceptually, have high confidence of thunderstorm
development through tonight, as forcing increases aloft over various
surface boundaries and ample instability. Some severe hail and/or
wind is likely, along with very heavy rainfall, when/where/if the
MCS decides to track/mature. High precipitable water argues that we
will need to monitor hydrology issues through tonight. Confidence
way too low on placement to issue a flash flood watch, but the
potential is certainly there. ECMWF continues to suggest a strong
MCS across northern/central KS overnight tonight, impacting the NE
zones (I-70 corridor). With the primary shortwave`s later timing,
the MCS may go well into Wednesday morning. Increased pops as far as
I felt comfortable (55-60%) and included heavy rain/gusty wind
wording in the grids.

Behind the MCS/shortwave on Wednesday, surface winds will trend
northwest to north at 10-20 mph. This process is expected to
scour instability nicely to our SE into Oklahoma, and effectively
end the risk of thunderstorms for most locations. Kept some low
pops along the eastern border Wednesday afternoon, but suspect any
thunderstorm redevelopment will occur east/SE of our CWA.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but with sufficient
sunshine in the afternoon, still expecting mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Much of Thursday will be dry along with seasonable temperatures.
Another MCS is likely to impact at least the southern zones
Thursday night into Friday morning, as the FB starting point pop
grids and 12z ECMWF solution suggest. A shortwave diving SE
through the northern plains will push an attendant frontal
boundary through Kansas Friday, with thunderstorm development
favoring the SE zones near Medicine Lodge late Friday. Medium
range models keep modest westerly flow aloft into the weekend,
with GFS maintaining convection chances late Saturday across at
least the western zones, as thunderstorm propagate eastward off
the higher terrain. After this time, Sunday through early next
week, 12z GFS shows gradually increasing 500 mb heights as high
pressure aloft over Texas attempts to expand north into the
central plains. 12z ECMWF also has rising heights across SW KS
Saturday through Tuesday, so there should be a trend to
warmer/drier weather during this time frame. Still, warming trend
in the grids undercuts 12z MEX guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Widely scattered thunderstorms will possible overnight ahead of an
upper level trough that will be crossing western Kansas between
09z and 18z Thursday. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions
overnight with cloud bases, even with the thunderstorms, being at
or above 4000ft AGL. Based on the latest HRRR and NAM timing
favoring the better chance for convection at Garden City, Dodge
City and Liberal will be from now until 09z. Hays will have a
chance for thunderstorms between 09z and 15z Wednesday. A surface
cold front is forecast to cross southwest Kansas early Wednesday
morning. As this cold front passes the southerly winds will shift
to the north northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  60  88 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  65  85  58  86 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  63  86  61  85 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  67  89  62  89 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  68  83  60  88 /  30  40  10   0
P28  72  91  65  89 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert



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