Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 180700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

A dry period can be expected through Monday night as a weakening
west-southwest flow prevails across the Western High Plains. Much
drier air in the mid/upper levels will cap any chance for precip
across western Kansas to kick off the week. As for temperatures,
a weak west-southwest downslope flow will set up across western
Kansas later today as a lee side trough of low pressure slowly
strengthens across eastern Colorado. This will usher warmer air
into the area with H85 temperatures climbing well above 5C late in
the day. Look for highs up into the mid to upper 50s(F) this
afternoon with a few lower 60s(F) possible closer to the Oklahoma
border. For tonight, expect lows down into the 20s(F) across west
central Kansas to the 30s(F) in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

The ongoing dry pattern will continue through the middle part of the
week as a zonal flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains
during the period in question. A relatively weak flow aloft and a
fairly dry air mass across the Western High Plains will keep precip
chances at bay through at least Thursday night. A wide range of
uncertainty remains, but medium range models do show a general
troughing pattern setting up across the Intermountain West late in
the week, signaling a hint for returning precip chance to portions
of western Kansas heading into the weekend. A little more certain
is the likelihood for much colder temperatures arriving by the
end of the week as an arctic front is projected to push through
western Kansas by Friday. Until them, well above normal temperatures
will persist across the high plains with little change expected
to the air mass across the region. A weak frontal boundary will
push through western Kansas Tuesday keeping highs generally down
in the mid to upper 50s(F). Southerlies will quickly return
Wednesday behind a departing surface high allowing highs to once
again push the lower to mid 60s(F) across much of southwest
Kansas. Although the timing of the arctic front is less definitive,
look for the initial downward trend of high temperatures to begin
Thursday with arctic air arriving and dropping highs well below
normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Monday evening.
Light and variable winds will persist through early Monday afternoon
as a weak surface high in western Kansas pushes southeast into the
Mississippi River Valley. Light southwest winds will develop across
western Kansas mid to late Monday afternoon as a weak lee side
trough slowly strengthens across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  60  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  19  58  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  62  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  19  62  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  23  57  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  60  34  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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