Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172007
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  32  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  30  37  31  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  30  40  32  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  33  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  27  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  32  37  34  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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