Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 302304
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
604 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED, WITH WEAK, MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ANY SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE 101ST MERIDIAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE
WEAKENING FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOIST SUBTROPICAL
PLUME FROM THE TROPICS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AS WELL AS RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW, THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THESE
COULD VENTURE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 80S ON FRIDAY (PERHAPS 90 ALONG INTERSTATE 70).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 5000 FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BASED ON THE MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE 18Z BUFR
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AREAS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF STORMS IN
THE 00Z TAFS . THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WHICH WILL GIVE RISE TO A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
AROUND DAYBREAK FROM SOME FOG, MAINLY AROUND DODGE CITY AND GARDEN
CITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  89  65  89 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  65  89  64  88 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  63  85  64  86 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  66  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
HYS  63  91  66  93 /  10  10  20  20
P28  68  88  69  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT


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