Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010722
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH WINDS IN 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE
25 TO NEAR 30 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING THE MIXING DEPTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL. USING THE NAM AND GFS 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z
SUNDAY AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 50 TO NEAR 60.

TONIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL KEEP THE LOWER
LEVEL MIXED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS. BASED
ON THESE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN
WHAT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AS A DEEP MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS LATE WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUESTIONS IN THE FORECAST CENTER
MAINLY ON WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND HOW FAR WEST ANY
BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.  SINCE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT
IS STILL IN THE F+66 TO F+84 TIME FRAME, THE GLOBAL MODELS
(DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS IN PARTICULAR) WERE FAVORED.
BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW AN EVOLUTION WHEREBY THE INITIAL WAVE
(WHICH AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA) WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD WHILE ANOTHER
VORTICITY ANOMALY CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REGION.

THE TWO DISTINCT FEATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE LOOSELY CONNECTED IN A
POSITIVELY TILTED MANNER AS THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT FAVOR LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLOGENESIS. WHAT THIS THEN MEANS IS THAT ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS PARTICULAR EVENT WILL BE ALONG A BROAD
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WARM CONVEYER BELT ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE
POLEWARD ADVANCING LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS (ACROSS WEST TEXAS). THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THOUGH, THE EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST.

THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR ANY BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY, AND IT MAY COME IN MORE THAN ONE ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS SHOWS SOME
MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (UP TO 500
J/KG) AS MID LEVEL COLD AIR ALOFT IMPINGES ON THE MOIST AXIS.  THE
PROBLEM IS, THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH DIRECT INSOLATION TO FOSTER
INCREASED INSTABILITY. IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR HOW MUCH THUNDER
THERE WILL BE, BUT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
COUNTIES. AREAS WEST OF A LIBERAL TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE WILL
LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT,
GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLOGENESIS TO HELP
DEVELOP SOME SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM GOING DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK, WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME FAIRLY TRANQUIL, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (IF NOT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A CUTOFF LOW (AS
THE RESULT OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVEBREAK) WALLOWING SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH MEXICO, WHICH WOULD THEN
EVENTUALLY COME BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND MAYBE BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
PLAINS FRIDAY (OR THEREABOUTS).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN
TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. OVER WESTERN KANSAS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
WESTERN KANSAS AND MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MOISTURE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY WILL BE
MAINLY AT OR ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL SO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  43  70  53 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  62  45  75  51 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  68  47  76  50 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  63  42  73  51 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  58  42  71  53 /   0   0  10  20
P28  56  43  67  54 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT



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