000
FXUS63 KDDC 250556
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1256 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SITUATED OVER NORTH AMERICA. A 500 MILLIBAR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE LOBE WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO TEXAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A WARM FRONT HAD
PUSHED INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE
OBSERVATION DATA ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
CUMULUS WERE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE RATON MESA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE COLORADO BORDER REGION. THIS
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD BUT WE COULD SEE IT PROPAGATE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. MODEL QPF FIELDS SHOW PRECIPITATION ENDING LATER IN THE
EVENING SO WILL HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE
WEAKER DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS SHOW A DRYLINE FORMING OUT ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER WHICH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS CONTINUING TO MODIFY AND WARM ON SATURDAY, WE SHOULD
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES HITTING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN MANY
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS, A DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND THE
COLORADO BORDER EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, WITH THE ECMWF MORE CLOSED OFF AND FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
GEM/GFS/UKMET MORE PROGRESSIVE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE AND MARGINAL
SHEAR PROFILE. AFTER TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND AS A
RESULT OF THE LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO 90S THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS (MID
TO UPPER 90S) IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS
WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN FAR
WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, BUT IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE
FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS, SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
SO THAT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE NEEDED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHEST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND AS FAR WEST AS
GARDEN CITY (65-70F) EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN THAT AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
LOWER DEWPOINTS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A COLD FRONT
COULD PASS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY, TEMPORARILY ENDING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AREAS OF MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN A HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.
STRATUS MAY LINGER OR REOCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT WHERE THE DRYLINE
HAS RETREATED WESTWARD. ANY LINGERING STRATUS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AN
ISSUE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS SATURDAY. STEADY WARM SECTOR 20 KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS OT NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  95  66  99 /  20  20  30  30
GCK  63  96  65  99 /  30  20  30  20
EHA  62  98  63  98 /  30  20  30  10
LBL  63  96  65 100 /  20  20  30  20
HYS  64  93  67  92 /  30  20  40  20
P28  65  91  68  92 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL