000
FXUS63 KDDC 232300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS MORNING`S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BEFORE ANGLING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WITH A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS INVADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE
LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH MIST, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TURBULENT
MIXING OVERNIGHT TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM BECOMING AN ISSUE. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S AROUND HAYS TO NEAR 60 AT LIBERAL.

BY FRIDAY MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ONGOING GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND OUT TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE FORMING JUST WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT TO SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND
2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH WITH LARGE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, WITH THE ECMWF MORE CLOSED OFF AND FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
GEM/GFS/UKMET MORE PROGRESSIVE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE AND MARGINAL
SHEAR PROFILE. CHANCES FOR TORNADOES AND GIANT HAIL LOOK FAIRLY LOW
DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND FAIRLY WEAK WINDS IN
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. AFTER MONDAY, THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE),
BUT ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE ECMWF WOULD
RESULT IN A MOIST AXIS THAT IS FURTHER WEST, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS (POSSIBLY SEVERE) IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHEST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS (UPPER 60S) EACH MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN
THAT AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE MOIST AXIS ENDS UP BEING FURTHER WEST,
THEN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN STRATUS AND CONVECTION
EVOLUTION. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS REDUCED TO IFR/LIFR AS A RESULT
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED STRATUS. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, BUT WILL ONLY LEAVE IN FOR KHYS FOR NOW AS THIS
TERMINAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 850 THETA-E AXIS, WHICH COULD BE THE
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS E-SE WITH MAGNITUDES 10-22 KN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  77  63  90 /  40  30  30  20
GCK  57  81  63  92 /  40  20  30  30
EHA  58  85  61  92 /  30  30  30  30
LBL  60  83  64  92 /  30  20  30  30
HYS  54  73  62  91 /  40  40  30  20
P28  55  75  65  87 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN