067
FXUS63 KDDC 031048
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
548 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are moderate (30-60%) chances for thunderstorms Friday
  afternoon into Friday night.

- A warm & humid and potentially wet weather pattern will
  generally persist through 12 July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

An upper level ridge over the plains will gradually shift
eastward through Friday. Meanwhile, a weak upper level trough
will advance eastward across the high plains. A plume of
tropical moisture will bring showers and t-storms south of
Kansas today. This rich and deep moisture will advance northward
and thunderstorms are expected to develop as the weak
disturbance approaches from the west Friday evening. These
storms could be marginally severe; but weak vertical shear will
limit severity. The mid to high level flow will likely be just
strong enough to promote storm organization so that any storms
forming on the high plains will likely organize into a line or
larger storm cluster and move across western and central Kansas
Friday night. The Grand Ensemble indicates the highest chance
(30-60%) of .25" of rain along I-70, with slightly lower
probabilities to the south. That said, the models do not handle
the track of t-storm clusters well at all this time of year and
of course rain amounts will be highly variable from spot to
spot.

After the aforementioned upper level trough passes, Saturday
will likely be dry, with highs warming to near 90. Beginning
Sunday, upper level ridging will shift to the southern Rockies,
with disturbances passing over the ridge and across the central
plains. Pattern recognition from many years of forecasting on
the high plains suggests that a few rounds of thunderstorms are
possible as long as this pattern persists. During summer,
thunderstorms typically develop on the western high plains and
foothills in the afternoon and then progress eastward, expanding
in areal coverage during the evening and overnight. The
rainfall maximum at Dodge City on average is between 8 pm and 4
am, with a peak around midnight to 1 am. This peak is 2-3 hours
earlier across far western Kansas and 2-3 hours later across
central Kansas. The long term, hourly rainfall climatology shows
that there is a minimum in rainfall at Dodge City between 8 am
and 4 pm, with local noon being the least likely time for
heavier summer rain. Of course, these statistics represent
averages and heavy rain can occasionally occur from mid morning
into early afternoon. Even though there will likely be a few
rounds of t-storms that track across southwest and central
Kansas, the storm clusters will move across different areas from
one night to the next so that total rain at any one location
will be held down. However, if one location happens to get hit
by storms on several nights, then that location would have much
more rain than other spots for the week. The ensemble mean
rainfall from the GEPS and ENS for the week beginning Sunday
varies from .5-.75" across far western Kansas to around 1.5" in
central Kansas. However, we know that rainfall is far from
uniform this time of year and total rain could be 2-3"+ in a
few spots and less than .5" in other locations.

Humidity during the Sunday to Saturday time frame will be
80-100% during the early mornings (4-7 am) and 40-50% during
the mid afternoons. This is considerably more moist than
average. Even though high temperatures will generally stay below
100 through this period, with 88 to 95 degrees being more
likely, heat index values during the afternoons will be several
degrees higher than the temperature from Dodge City eastward to
Pratt.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies through
the period, resulting in south winds. South winds will increase
to 15-22 kts by 18-20z with daytime heating and then decrease
to 13-16 kts by sunset with the loss of heating. VFR conditions
will persist.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch