000
FXUS63 KDDC 060917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2013

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Arctic air with temperatures at the 850 mb level chart around -25
degrees C was noted across the northern Plains, which will be our
source region air for western Kansas in the near term. The air
across Nebraska and South Dakota is also very dry with surface dew
points in the negative 10 to negative 20 F range.  Farther south
across central Kansas, weak banded returns of weakly forced snow or
flurries continued in pockets through the overnight, mainly east of
the highway 283 corridor. The back edge of an extensive mid level
cloud area was noted from central Nebraska into northeast Colorado.
Surface winds varied between 5 and 10 knots, although winds were
light near the Colorado line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

Areas of flurries will still be possible early this morning across
central Kansas , but no accumulation is expected with these very dry
pockets of very light snow. With expansive cloud cover, temperatures
may not be quite as cold as earlier forecast. As a result and given
current and projected wind speeds through the next 6 hours, true
wind chill advisory criteria will not likely to be met. We will
cancel the wind chill advisory for this morning. Still very cold
conditions are expected. Even colder temperatures are expected by
tonight as the cloud cover clears with the sinking drier air from
the north. Initially, light winds will be favored with the very dense
and dry air in place. However by the 10 to 15 UTC timeframe on
Saturday, an increase in surface wind speeds due to advancement of
the next system and increased surface pressure gradient should
plummet apparent temperatures possibly as cold as 20 below zero in
some areas briefly.  In the meantime, some of our coldest maximum
daytime temperatures of the year should be experienced this afternoon as
intense cold advection causes temperatures to struggle through the
teens, even under clearing skies and eventually abundant insolation
in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

On Saturday, the morning should start out clear, with surface high
pressure in place.  Then as the day progresses towards 18z, a mid
level disturbance will encroach on the western border with
Colorado.  Clouds will increase and the moisture will deepen from
above to downward.  Some light snow may start in the far west in the
early afternoon, then the disturbance will advance eastward into
central Kansas, spreading the snow chances with it.  A stronger and
deeper layered mid level wave will move through the plains Saturday
night, bringing some measurable snow with it.  The latest model runs
of the NAM, ECMWF and GFS all take the brunt of this storm system
north of our CWA, and we will be left with mostly light snow.  I did
decrease the 6 hour snow amounts, which now total up to 1.8 inches
north of I-70, and I feel this may even be overdone.  For this
reason, do not think an advisory will be warranted.  The snow should
end by late Sunday, and then clouds will be slow to clear out.  The
sky may not actually clear out until Monday afternoon.  The surface
cold air will still be in place Monday, but as the low level flow
becomes more southwesterly by Tuesday, there will be some warming
take place Tuesday.  After several days with highs in the teens,
surface temperatures will rise and warm into the lower to mid 30s on
Tuesday.  Wednesday will be about as warm as Tuesday, and by
Thursday, day time max temperatures could reach the 40s in parts of
our southern forecast area.  There will be a northwesterly downslope
flow established by Wednesday, and it may continue into Thursday.
The Consall model blend warms us more on Thursday, but the HiRes
ECMWF is hinting at a cold outbreak backdooring into western Kansas
around Wednesday night.  If that occurs, Thursday could turn out to
be cooler than Wednesday.  Left the Consall solution in place for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

We will need to watch closely for any IFR ceiling development
into the early morning as the back edge of the mid level cloud
shield exits the region. Enough mid level cloud should remain
however to keep low stratus development to a minimum, but the HRRR
does hint at the possibility of localized IFR/LIFR stratus
development which is too low of a chance to include in prevailing
or tempo groups.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  15   0  16   8 /  10   0  30  40
GCK  15  -2  13   7 /   0   0  30  50
EHA  13   3  17   9 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  15   1  15   8 /   0   0  30  40
HYS  15  -5  15   6 /  10   0  30  50
P28  21   3  21  10 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 11 AM CST /10 AM
MST/ Saturday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Russell