Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271950
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
250 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Thick cloud cover across SW Kansas this afternoon along with
breezy SE winds. HRRR model generates scattered convection across
the western zones by 4-5 pm, then subsequently moving eastward
across the CWA this evening. Storms may intensify some along with
some linear segments, allowing for some cold pool generation and
strong outflow winds. Moisture and instability are limited, but
high-based thunderstorms will pose a primary risk of wind gusts of
50-60 mph through this evening. Strongest cores may have nickel to
quarter size hail, but this is a secondary concern. As shortwave
energy rotates through tonight, shower activity and embedded
thunder will rotate NE into northern Kansas. Dry with partial
clearing expected by sunrise Friday, with lows ranging from the
upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE.

Much of Friday will be dry, as strong closed low sinks south to
the Four Corners by evening. Enough sunshine expected for the
first half of the day to allow for afternoon temperatures well
into the 60s. Diffluence aloft will begin increasing during the
afternoon, with increasing clouds, and scattered rain showers and
embedded thunder across western zones by late afternoon. Any
rainfall through 7 pm Friday appears insignificant. Widespread
stratiform rain, moderate to heavy at times, is expected to arrive
Friday evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...Strong and wet late season winter storm expected this
weekend...

Yet another beneficial rainfall event is on its way to SW Kansas.
Widespread rain, moderate to heavy at times, is expected Friday
night through Saturday morning. Warm advection/isentropic lift
will be intense during this timeframe, with around an inch of rain
likely during Friday night alone. SW Kansas will be entrenched in
the cold conveyor belt, with not enough elevated instability to
warrant a thunder mention. Still, mesoscale bands of heavy rain
are expected. Minor flooding and ponding issues. Parent upper low
expected to be in NW New Mexico 7 am Saturday.

Upper low digs SE during the day on Saturday, ending up in SE New
Mexico by 7 pm. With this more southerly track, dynamic lift will
continue to support rain, albeit at gradually lessening intensity,
throughout the day Saturday. While there may be a few breaks in
the rain late in the day, Saturday will generally be a washout
with another 0.25-0.75 of QPF. Rain may mix with wet snow at times
on the higher terrain of the western counties early Saturday
morning, but no accumulations are expected...yet. Unseasonably
cold, with strong NE winds and cold air advection and rain holding
temperatures in the 38-45 range. The record coldest high
temperature at Dodge City for April 29th is 39/1994, and we won`t
be much warmer than that.

Strong upper low strengthens further Saturday night, ending up
near Childress at 7 am Sunday. This storm track will be ideal for
setting up the deformation zone over SW Kansas. With strong lift,
likely pops are warranted. The much harder part of the forecast is
one of thermodynamics and the expected phase change from cold rain
to wet snow. Concensus of models spreads the rain/snow line
eastward across the western 1/2 of the CWA through sunrise Sunday.
Some accumulations expected on grassy/elevated surfaces from Dodge
City westward, especially before sunrise. 12z ECMWF strongly
suggests a snow changeover for the western 2/3 of the CWA, with
850 mb temperatures falling to -2/-3C. This would get snowflakes
to the ground, but impacts on trees and powerlines will come down
to surface air temperatures, forecasted to be in the 30-35 range.
Areas with subfreezing surface temperatures in the heavy snow
bands may experience significant tree/power line damage, given
north winds will be gusting near 40 mph. Roads will remain wet to
at most occasionally slushy; still, a winter weather headline will
likely be required. Snow amount grids came up with 1-4 inches
across the western counties, and was accepted as a good start for
now.

Strongest forcing expected Sunday morning, as upper low
intensifies to near 544 dm near Medicine Lodge by 1 pm Sunday.
Pops are likely, and will need to be raised to categorical. Heavy
wet snow is expected to continue across the western 1/2 of the CWA
for several hours Sunday morning, rain elsewhere. All models show
deformation precipitation continuing, and changing back to rain,
through Sunday afternoon. This will be another wet cyclone for SW
Kansas, with stormtotalQPF grids for this event 1-2 inches
widespread. Wraparound rain finally ends across the NE zones
Sunday evening. Another cold day Sunday in the 40s, followed by
near freezing temperatures Monday morning. Winter isn`t done with
us just yet!

Monday and Tuesday...Dry, with afternoon temperatures back in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

VFR conditions until 22Z for KHYS and until after 3Z for KGCK and
KDDC. Expect ceilings to lower due to increasing moisture and the
possibility of thunderstorms, which will continue through
midnight. The highest confidence for IFR stratus is for KHYS and
KDDC from 6-9Z. VFR conditions will come back for KGCK and KHYS
after 12Z as the stratus clouds clears out of the region.

This afternoon, winds will continue to flow from the southeast
with gust at 20-25 knots as a low builds in SE Colorado. Winds
will turn northwesterly at 5-10 knots overnight as the low moves
along the Oklahoma panhandle and out of our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  68  37  41 /  40  20  90  90
GCK  40  64  35  38 /  40  30  80  80
EHA  41  64  34  36 /  10  30  80  90
LBL  42  66  39  40 /  20  30  90  80
HYS  43  60  38  41 /  80  20  80  90
P28  48  72  44  48 /  40  10  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Reynolds



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