000
FXUS63 KDDC 312134
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER WESTERN MONTANA EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENISIS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED FORCING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TOP DOWN
APPROACH THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID,
HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT THIS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW
AFTER 03Z. AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER
BEFORE MIDNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE AREA OF 850MB TO 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS COLD AIR SPREADS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX
WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN A QUICKER RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. FURTHER SOUTH ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY.
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT IS STILL UNCLEAR, HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
AGREE THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY BASED ON THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE FORECAST MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT FALL VERY QUICKLY UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE WILL THEN DROP BASED
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FORECAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY SKIES
WILL CLEAR BUT BASED ON THE 900MB TO 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS THE
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THE HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, ONE PARTICULAR UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE THAT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DAY TO DAY WEATHER IS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY
AND THEN PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE, LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AS A SMALL AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS. HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
20S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW, ALBEIT SLIGHT, WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY THURSDAY, WITH 60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 70S FRIDAY. AFTER
FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
(FEB 8TH-9TH). ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WELL
OFF TO THE EAST, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE BY LATE DAY. THE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME, HOWEVER
BASED ON THE 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILINGS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1500FT TO 2000FT AGL LEVEL BY
LATE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
HRRR HAS THE FRONT PASSING HYS AND GCK BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z AND DDC
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KNOTS AS LOW CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  30  14  44 /  70  10   0   0
GCK  27  31  14  49 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  30  36  19  56 /  60   0   0   0
LBL  31  36  18  50 /  60  10   0   0
HYS  23  26  11  44 /  80  10   0   0
P28  30  33  14  39 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT