000
FXUS63 KDDC 151712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The 15.12Z 250-hPa map showed strong SSW/SW flow downstream of Kansas
of 100-130 kt. NW flow of 50-75 kt prevailed upstream. At 500-hPa, an
amplified trough extended from Hudson Bay southward to the lower Mississippi
river valley. Warm air advection was noted at KDDC both at 700/850-hPa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The upper level ridge axis across the West and adjacent Rockies will
rapidly approach the Great Plains and flatten out by midday with
zonal northwesterly flow aloft becoming dominant across much of the
northwestern half of the CONUS. This will support fairly robust lee
trough development from Montana south into eastern Colorado. The
MSLP gradient will increase, as a result, with surface winds picking
up out of the south/southwest by midday. Temperatures will rebound
nicely as the 900-800mb downslope continues through the day warming
the temperatures in this layer.  We should see highs easily reach
upper 60s for far southwest KS and mid 60s elsewhere.  A shortwave
trough within the northwest flow aloft will move into the Northern
Rockies tonight, helping sustain the deep lee trough as it pushes
east into the southern Dakotas and Nebraska. The gradient across
southwestern Kansas will remain strong enough to keep winds up in
the 14 to 17 knot range much of the night.  By daybreak Wednesday,
the center of the trough axis will likely be over far west-central
KS and southwest Kansas with winds diminishing.  This would support
temperatures falling into the 35 to 39F range out west with lows a
bit warmer farther east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A cold front will move through western Kansas Wednesday due to an
upper level shortwave moving through the Northern Plains. Winds will
generally be from the north with the exception of south central
Kansas where they should remain ahead of the front most of the day
with southerly winds. Highs Wednesday are forecasted to range from
the lower 60s across west central Kansas where the front will move
through early to lower 70s across south central Kansas where the
front is not expected to move through until late in the day.

Another upper level shortwave is progged to move through the Central
High Plains Wednesday night into Thursday bringing increased clouds
with a chance of precipitation. This precipitation will start out as
rain showers for the first part of Wednesday night then change over
to snow from west to east as the night progresses. As of now, areas
south and east of Liberal to Larned look to remain above freezing
with only rain showers expected. Strong northerly winds and cold air
advection will continue Wednesday night into Thursday with lows
ranging from around freezing across west central Kansas to lower 40s
across south central Kansas. Highs Thursday are anticipated to range
from the upper 30s across much of the area with the exception of
south central Kansas where 40s will be possible. In fact,
temperatures across some places may remain steady or only rise a few
degrees throughout the day. Snow totals through Thursday afternoon
currently look to range from 2-4 inches across the I-70 corridor
with lesser amounts farther south. The counties across the Oklahoma
border and south central Kansas may not receive any snow at all.

Clouds will decrease in coverage Thursday night with mostly clear
skies expected on Friday. This is due to an upper level ridge
building above the Plains. Winds will shift back to more of a
southerly direction during this time frame. This will be short lived
as an upper level shortwave moves through the Southwest United
States and Four Corners Region Friday then into the Central Plains
on Saturday. Clouds will be on the increase Friday night as this
system approaches with a chance of thunderstorms Saturday into
Saturday night. Most models suggest this system to exit the area on
Sunday with the exception of the ECMWF that brings wrap around
showers to the area throughout most of the day. As for temperatures,
highs look to reach into the 60s Friday then in the lower 70s
Saturday and Sunday. Lows Friday morning look to dip to around 30
degrees. Lows Saturday and Sunday morning in the mid to upper 40s
with the exception of south central Kansas where lows in the lower
50s will be possible Sunday morning.

The remainder of the extended period looks dry with upper level
ridging building across the Rockies and southerly winds at the
surface. Skies should be mostly clear. Highs Monday and Tuesday look
to be in the 70s with lows around 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Southerly/southwesterly winds 10-20 kt
becoming northerly 18-25 kt with a frontal passage tomorrow morning.
No reduction of flight category expected with the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across far southwest
Kansas today as southwest winds pick up to around 15 to 20 mph. With
temperatures warming into the upper 60s by late afternoon and a
dewpoint around 20, relative humidity will fall to around 15 to 20
percent. We collaborated potential for a Red Flag Warning (RFW) with
the AMA office, but we decided to hold off on issuance of a RFW for
far southwest Kansas given the low confidence in less than 15
percent RH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  39  68  37 /   0   0   0  60
GCK  66  37  64  36 /   0   0   0  60
EHA  68  39  65  37 /   0   0   0  60
LBL  67  37  67  39 /   0   0   0  60
HYS  66  40  67  36 /   0   0   0  60
P28  64  40  73  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid