000
FXUS63 KDDC 231758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Winds will be easterly behind a weak cold front this afternoon and
then gradually shift to the southeast and south tonight and into
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 02z
near KGCK along the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  20  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Finch