000
FXUS63 KDDC 311936 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Dry northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the Central Plains
into Friday. A few stray showers, however, may make into the far
west later, near the Colorado border, tonight and Friday, but kept
chances below 15 percent. A weak disturbance may also bring a few
showers or isolated thunderstorms to parts of south central Kansas
from Hays to Medicine Lodge after midnight but current thinking is
the probability is too low to put into the forecast. Forecast
soundings showing some increasing mainly high level cloudiness
towards midnight into Friday so pushed up cloud forecast a bit. Weak
low pressure at the surface will slide into north central Kansas by
morning with light and variable winds becoming light south to
southwesterly. Winds then become light and variable again on Friday.

Overnight lows will be around 60, slightly warmer than last night
due to more high level cloudiness expected. Highs on Friday will
warm into the mid to upper 80s as 850mb temps warm. Have kept
previous forecast as wet soils could keep highs lower than
guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The medium range models currently show weak northwesterly flow aloft
continuing over the central High Plains between an upper level ridge
over western North America and a closed upper low north of the Great
Lakes region. A shortwave trough will drop out of southern Canada
into the Midwest on Friday. This will push a weak cool front south
into western Kansas on Friday. Given the dry and fairly stable
airmass in place, precipitation chances will be at a minimum.

The northern Great Lakes upper low will eject into the eastern
Canadian provinces by Saturday and increasing westerly flow will
allow the upper ridge to move east into the central part of the
country through the weekend. This will bring slightly warmer
temperatures to western Kansas through the early part of next week.

The next significant chances for precipitation across the central
High Plains will return toward the middle of next week. An upper
disturbance currently moving west over Mexico is progged by the
models to move northward around the west side of the upper ridge
this weekend before moving east toward the northern and central
Plains by next Tuesday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this
system will pull some low level moisture back into the region with
increasing instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue into Friday. A very weak surface
pressure gradient will give light and variable winds into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  88  63  88 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  62  87  62  87 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  61  85  62  84 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  61  88  64  87 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  62  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
P28  62  89  65  89 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse