Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271712
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

At 12z Wednesday a 700mb and 500mb low was located over south
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Another upper level
system was located just off the Oregon coast. Between these two
systems a short wave ridge axis extended from northern Arizona to
Idaho. Over the Central Rockies at 12z Wednesday a northwesterly
flow was present at the 700mb and 500mb levels. At the surface an
area of low pressure was located near the Nebraska border in north
central Kansas. A cold front extended south from this area of low
pressure into north central Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A double barrel low pressure system at 500 millibars was situated
from eastern Wyoming into western Kansas early this morning. The
southern extent of this low was in the process of strengthening
and closing off as it tracks east while the northern extent was
gradually weakening and filling. Showers and a few thunderstorms
were developing across west central and northwest Kansas under the
mid level cold pool and area of enhanced upward vertical motion
associated with the low. The area of scattered showers will
propagate east through this morning with the upper low and should
be winding down over central Kansas by midday to early afternoon.
The best chances for precipitation will be confined to areas north
of the Arkansas River.

Cooler temperatures can be expected today behind a cold front
currently moving through the area. Highs will generally be in the
mid 60s with low 70s expected across far south central Kansas.

Mid level ridging builds into the central High Plains tonight with
decreasing clouds across western Kansas. Temperatures will be near
to slightly below seasonal normals, in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A fairly complicated upper level flow pattern will continue over
the western and central part of the country through the end of the
week. Another strong upper level low pressure system, progged by
the models to be located over Las Vegas Thursday morning, will
move northeast toward the Colorado Front Range by Friday. Low
level moisture shunted into the southern Plains by todays cold
front will begin to move back into western Kansas by Thursday
afternoon as the low level flow becomes southeasterly. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop and spread northeast across the area
Thursday night and continue through much of Friday. The bulk of
the precipitation will be on Friday ahead of a shortwave trough
lifting out with the upper low. The precipitation will be fairly
widespread with many locations possibly receiving around an inch
or so of rain by Friday evening. As this low lifts northeast of
the region Friday night, yet another low is progged to drop
through the western states into the Great Basin and Desert
Southwest by Sunday afternoon. With shortwave disturbances
rotating around these upper lows and ejecting out into the Plains,
there will be continued opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Gusty northwest winds will fall back to around 15 knots after 21z
as a surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas. These
northwest winds will then fall back to 10 knots or less after
sunset and begin to gradually shift to the north northeast towards
daybreak. 850mb to 700mb moisture wrapping around an upper low,
located in southeast Nebraska early this afternoon, will gradually
lift northeast but until then some VFR ceilings will be present
through late day in the GCK and DDC areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  39  65  46 /  40   0  10  80
GCK  63  38  64  44 /  10   0  10  80
EHA  65  39  66  44 /   0   0  10  70
LBL  68  39  68  47 /   0   0  10  70
HYS  60  37  62  44 /  60   0  10  70
P28  69  42  70  51 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert



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