000
FXUS63 KDDC 041130
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
530 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

The 00z upper air analysis showed a 500 millibar closed low over the
northern Rockies with a shortwave trough extending southwest from
the low into northern California. To the east of the trough, strong
upper level westerly flow extended from the west coast across the
lower 48 states. A northern branch 130 knot jet streak at 300
millibars extended from across southern Wyoming into central
Nebraska while a southern branch 110 knot jet streak extended from
northern Baja into the Texas panhandle. Cold air was spilling
southward across the central plains overnight behind a cold front
that had pushed through all but southeast Kansas early this morning.
Some light freezing drizzle and flurries had developed in the strong
cold air advection zone behind the front over central and parts of
southwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Will carry some light freezing and/or frozen precipitation over much
of central and southwest Kansas through the early morning hours.
Calls to a few of the counties indicate that the precipitation is
fairly light and not causing any icing problems. Expect the
precipitation to gradually diminish through the early morning hours
as drier air moves into southwest Kansas. Am not anticipating any
travel hazards but will monitor just the same. Southwest Kansas
should remain mostly socked in with low clouds today although there
could be a few breaks noted by this afternoon.

The short term models show the two branches of the upper level jet
gradually coalescing into a 150 knot jet over the central High
Plains through this afternoon into tonight. The upper low is progged
to open up with the remaining upper level shortwave energy lifting
rapidly from Wyoming into the western Great Lakes tonight. Western
Kansas comes under the right entrance region of this jet overnight.
While there should be enough lift to produce light snow overnight,
model soundings are not overly saturated through a deep layer
overnight. As a result, they do not show very significant
precipitation. For now will keep the chance pops from the previous
forecast shift in place.

High temperatures should be in the 25-30 degree range today. Cold
air continues to pour southward into western Kansas overnight which
will bring temperatures into the single digits and lower teens by
Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave pushing east
across the Four Corners Region Thursday setting up the possibility
for precip across portions of western Kansas. As the system
approaches, a series of H5 vort maxes will continue to lift
northeast out of the trough axis in the Desert Southwest and across
the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level jet exiting the
trough axis will intensify as it climbs northeast across western
Kansas and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Additionally, the
GFS/ECMWF continue to hint at some H7 frontogenesis bands
transitioning across western Kansas throughout the day. As a
result, enough support will exist to support periods of light snow
across portions of west central, southwest, and central Kansas as
mid/upper level moisture increases somewhat. However, significant
snowfall amounts are still not expected across much of the area
with amounts generally less than 2 inches. Localized higher
amounts cannot be ruled out across extreme southwest Kansas but
confidence is too low to consider issuing any winter weather
headlines. Drier conditions are then expected Friday through
Saturday afternoon as the upper level shortwave opens up and races
off to the northeast. Another round of light precip is possible
Saturday night into Sunday as another upper level trough drops
south out of the Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners Region.

Temperatures will be well below normal Thursday as cold air
continues to filter southward into western Kansas. Surface high
pressure will extend from the high plains of eastern Montana and
eastern Wyoming down into Nebraska and Kansas helping to reinforce
the cold air mass in place across the Western High Plains with H85
temperatures as low as 15C below. Look for highs only up into the
teens(F) and lower 20s(F) Thursday. Similar temperatures are likely
Friday and Saturday with little change in the overall air mass going
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

MVFR conditions with brief periods of IFR cigs will continue in
the vicinity of all TAF sites through mid to late morning. The
stratus is expected to gradually lift throughout the day with VFR
conditions possible by this afternoon. Northerly winds of 15 to
25kt will continue through this evening as surface high pressure
in the Northern Plains begins to edge further south toward Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  10  16   7 /   0  20  30  30
GCK  27  11  15   4 /   0  30  30  30
EHA  30   7  16   3 /  10  30  40  40
LBL  30  13  16   7 /   0  20  40  40
HYS  29   9  20   7 /   0  20  20  20
P28  35  14  22  12 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson