Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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262
FXUS63 KDDC 301239
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
739 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Areas of early morning fog will be possible early this morning
but based on how shallow the moisture is near the surface and the
HRRR and NAM hinting at a light westerly wind around 12z do not
think dense fog will be an issue for most of western Kansas.

Scattered Thunderstorms , some capable of producing heavy
rainfall, will once again be possible across western Kansas today
as subtle upper level disturbances embedded in the tropical flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Given the environment am unable
to pinpoint exactly where or when these storms will be late today
through tonight. However based on water vapor loop and general
consensuses between the NAM, RAP, and GFS will be favoring an area
of enhanced convection east of Dodge City early today and then
locations a little further west late today and early tonight.

As for temperatures today will favor the cooler guidance and may
even undercut this given the clouds, precipitation, and what the
highs were yesterday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

On Wednesday an upper level trough will move from northwest
Kansas into central Kansas as a 700mb to 500mb deformation zone
crosses western Kansas. Based on these features it appears that
this will be when the better opportunity for widespread
precipitation will occur. Once again heavy rainfall will be the
main hazard from these storms given high precipitable water, weak
upper level winds, and 0-6km shear.

A cold front will then back door its way into western Kansas
Wednesday night which will allow some cooler and drier air in the
lower levels to return to portions of north central Kansas.
Moisture and lift will continue along and ahead of this boundary
so will keep a mention of showers and thunderstorms going here
while east of the cold front will bring an end to the
precipitation.

An upper level ridge axis will move east across the central and
northern Plains late week as an upper level low moves out of the
eastern Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest. A trough of low
pressure at the surface will develop across eastern Colorado late
week and into the weekend period as 850mb temperatures begin to
warm. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend
period along this surface boundary in southeast Colorado. Some of
these storms will move into portions of western Kansas late
Saturday into Saturday night as an upper level trough crosses the
Central Plains. Temperatures are expected to climb back to more
seasonal levels with highs around 90 degrees being possible on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 733 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Light winds and cooling temperatures have attributed to fog
development locally to 1/4 mile at the DDC terminal, and under 1 mile
at GCK. The fog is not expected to linger much more than another
hour or so before improvement begins. However, based on region
radar trends and the convective allowing model output, the showers
and thudnerstorms will remain in the forecast though the rest of
the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  64  80  63 /  60  60  50  40
GCK  77  63  80  62 /  60  60  40  40
EHA  78  62  80  61 /  60  60  40  40
LBL  79  63  80  63 /  60  70  40  40
HYS  79  64  77  61 /  60  60  40  20
P28  84  68  83  66 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell



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