Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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515
FXUS63 KDDC 301830
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
130 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Kansas
tonight as short range models indicate the upper level shortwave
trough in the Northern Rockies developing into a closed off low as
it digs southeast across eastern Montana into the Dakotas. As the
upper level system moves into the Northern Plains, an attendant cold
front is projected to push southward into western Kansas late tonight
into early Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a return flow will re-
establish across central and much of western Kansas helping to push
surface dewpoints back up into the lower to mid 60s(F) across central
Kansas with 50s(F) further west. Although remaining fairly weak, a
southwest flow aloft will become increasingly difluent as a secondary
closed off low deepens across southern Arizona overnight. Steep
lower/mid level lapse rates and increasing instability will exist
across the high plains of Colorado as the first in a series of H5
vort maxima begin to kick out downstream of the approaching trough
axis late this afternoon. As a result, thunderstorms will develop
across eastern Colorado toward early evening with storms eventually
drifting eastward into western Kansas later tonight. Considering
the weaker flow aloft, the best chance for thunderstorms will be
more closely associated with the frontal boundary pushing into
northwest and west central Kansas, then spreading eastward as the
front pushes further into southwest and central Kansas through
early Tuesday. The potential for marginally severe storms does
exist with MLCAPE values upward of 1000 to 1500 J/KG, particularly
further north near the I-70 corridor where better forcing is
likely. The focus for thunderstorms will shift east-southeast
during the day Tuesday as the front moves into central and south
central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon.

Considering prevailing southerlies and surface dewpoints well up
into the 50s(F) across west central and southwest Kansas to the
lower 60s(F) in south central Kansas, look for lows generally down
into the 60s(F) across the area tonight. Cooler temperatures are
likely Tuesday as a cold front pushes through western and central
Kansas during the day. Also considering increased cloud cover and
lingering precip, especially across central and south central
Kansas, look for highs mainly up into the 70s(F) Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

There should be a brief lull in convective activity early Tuesday
morning as the MCS dissipates over central Kansas. The models all
move a Pacific cold front southeast across the area during the
day. The GFS and ECMWF both move the front through all of southwest
and south central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon while the NAM is a
few hours slower. This will have implications on daytime high
temperatures as the MAV MOS guidance is cooler than the MET MOS.
With showers and thunderstorms developing along and over the
frontal boundary during the day along with increasing cloud cover,
will leave the going temperature forecast as is which lines up
with the cooler MAV.

The upper level shortwave trough moves east across the northern
Plains into the upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning while surface high pressure builds south into the central
High Plains behind the front. Drier air will bring an end to the
precipitation chances through the remainder of the week. Wednesday
will be another slightly cooler than normal day with highs
generally in the 70s. We should see a return to more seasonal
temperatures in the 80s through the latter part of the week as
an upper level ridge builds toward the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. A few isolated thunderstorms will develop across eastern
Colorado late this afternoon and early evening then drift slowly
eastward into western Kansas overnight, potentially affecting all
TAF sites with brief periods of MVFR cigs/vsbys toward early
Tuesday morning. South winds 15 to 25kt will persist through early
this evening as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across eastern Colorado. The winds will subside later in the
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  60  75  53 /  10  60  60  50
GCK  87  58  73  52 /  20  50  50  30
EHA  85  57  73  53 /  20  30  50  50
LBL  86  60  75  54 /  10  30  60  50
HYS  85  58  73  52 /  10  60  60  30
P28  86  63  78  59 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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