Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
502 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ENCOURAGE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
10 TO 20 MPH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO NEAR 30 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY SOME INCREASE IN MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S,
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS AROUND 53F ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE IN COMANCHE AND CLARK COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND, AT LEAST
FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUN, THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN
HANDLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY.

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY NIGHT, A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE OVER THE CONUS.
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
THE MIDWEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS SECOND WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. NOT REAL CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME THAT ANY OF THIS WILL MAKE
IT INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WILL BE KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY.STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A 150 KNOT JET AT 250 MILLIBARS
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. THE NOSE OF THIS JET WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WHICH SHOULD MANIFEST ITSELF AS
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. THE
CLOUDINESS WILL BE DECREASING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST.

BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BUILD FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND ARE NOW SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING WITH 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS
CELSIUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT, THE MODELS COULD STILL FLIP-FLOP BACK TO A COLDER SOLUTION
FOR THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE GOING FORECAST OF HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S AROUND HAYS TO THE LOWER 60S AT ELKHART.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN IS ALSO TRENDING TOWARD THIS
SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN CONUS...KEEPING THE COLD AIR BOTTLED UP IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING
WHILE DROPPING BELOW 20KT AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW ACROSS MISSOURI
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  51  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  26  50  19  53 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  24  50  22  53 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  26  52  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  27  48  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  50  25  52 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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