Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Playing the stratus game once again this morning, as strong
moisture advection is directed into SW KS. Surface dewpoint near
50 at Medicine Lodge at midnight rather impressive for mid
November. Satellite imagery shows stratus expanding rapidly, and
the consensus of short term models has a very strong signal of
this transitioning to dense fog through sunrise. Dense fog is most
likely on the edge of the expanding stratus field, but with such
a strong short term model signal for widespread dense fog will
keep the inherited dense fog advisory intact. Currently at the
office 50/49 with a stratus deck at 300 feet. With such a moist
boundary layer and continued moisture convergence, visibility from
zero to 1/8 mile will be possible at times through sunrise.

Tuesday...Once again, stratus and fog will erode from west to
east, once again making for a challenging temperature forecast.
An impressive temperature range is expected once again by 3 pm,
ranging from the lower 50s NE to near 80 at Elkhart. There is a
major temperature bust potential across the central zones today,
as it will all come down to how far east the clearing line makes
it. Took my best stab at it, with a clearing line near Scott City
to Jetmore to Coldwater by 4 pm. 00z NAM forecast soundings show
stratus breaking at Dodge City just after noon. Pressure gradients
will be weaker today, with south winds at reduced speeds compared
to Monday, which lends some uncertainty regarding the low cloud
erosion. South winds will average 10-15 mph.

Tonight...Finally a change from the stratus routine, as a strong
but dry cold front sweeps through around midnight with strong
gusty N/NW winds. With 850 mb winds of 30-40 mph, some gusts of
that magnitude are plausible, at least during the initial frontal
passage. Selected the strongest MAV wind guidance for the wind
grids tonight. 00z NAM depicts a 1027 mb surface high in NE
Colorado by sunrise Wednesday, with a supply of much drier air.
Expecting a clear sky by sunrise Wednesday with lows in the 30s NW
to 40s SE.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

A low amplitude, but fairly strong shortwave trough will be pushing
quickly east across the Northern Plains Tuesday Night. This will
usher in a cold front into Kansas, scouring out the low level
moisture and persistent stratus cloud cover. Trajectories behind
this system in the 800-600mb layer will be off the Wyoming high
terrain, thus any cold air will be largely masked by downslope
warming. Nevertheless, with the frontal passage itself, we should
have a 3-5 hour period of fairly strong north winds of 15-25 mph
mainly during the overnight hours into early morning Wednesday.
Winds will slacken off quite a bit Wednesday midday/afternoon,
resulting in quite a pleasant day with highs in the mid to upper
50s under quite a bit of sun.

Later in the week, the surface will start responding to an intense
Pacific jet streak moving into the Great Basin and eventually Central
Rockies. Winds on Thursday will increase out of the south to around
20-30 mph as an elongated low pressure develops within the lee
trough across the Northern/Central High Plains.

All three major global models (Canadian, ECMWF, GFS) show a 150+
knot 250mb jet nosing into the Central Plains by Thursday
Night/Friday morning. The jet core will be north of our southwest
Kansas region, thus is expected to result in yet another dry
scenario for our part of the world. Friday could prove to be quite
mild and windy...either out of the west-southwest or northwest
depending on where the intense front is located. The GFS model is
fastest, which is what the official forecast will reflect as far as
winds are concerned, although if the GFS trends slower with the
front, the wind forecast will need to be adjusted (winds more from
the southwest). This would also result in a much warmer forecast,
for if we remain in the dry/warm sector with west-southwest winds,
temperatures would top mid-upper 70s over much of southwest and west
central KS.

Much like the mid-week system, this early weekend storm system will
also be blowing through the Central Plains quite quickly with
trajectories coming out of Wyoming not long after frontal passage.
Any cold air we see from this front will likely be fairly short-
lived, modified by downslope warming.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Poor flying conditions will plague SW Kansas terminals tonight
into Tuesday morning. Once again, IFR/LIFR stratus is increasing
as of midnight. Expectation is for stratus to transition to areas
of dense fog overnight and toward sunrise, with consensus of short
term models bringing surface visibility down to as little as
1/8 mile by 12z Tue. Included a period of 1/4 sm (VLIFR) at all
terminals. Again on Tuesday, stratus and fog will gradually erode
from west to east, with VFR returning to GCK and LBL first, around
16z. Expect VFR at DDC near 18z, but stratus may hold most of the
daylight hours at HYS. Near the end of this TAF period, around
05z Wed, a dry cold front will arrive with strong N/NW winds
gusting to near 30 kts.


DDC  46  64  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  39  70  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  77  41  58 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  73  44  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  54  39  57 /   0  10   0   0
P28  49  62  47  62 /  10  10  10   0


Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for KSZ030-031-



LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.