Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240538
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT:

SEEING A BIT OF A LULL IN SNOW ACTIVITY AS THE BAND THAT WAS NEAR
GARDEN CITY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND ALSO
AS A VORTMAX/ENHANCED REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS SWINGS THROUGH. AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S.

TOMORROW:

A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYNOPTIC TROUGH.
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY
BY EVENING 5-10 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) WILL BE THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND
SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE
FAVORED OVER BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL GFS SOLUTIONS AS
THE GFS MODELS APPEAR TO BE FALLING INTO THEIR BIASES OF SHEARING
OUT POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY TOO AGGRESSIVELY AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST.  BOTH OF THE GFS SOLUTIONS EFFECTIVELY KEEP ALL THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION...AND ARE
OVERALL WEAKER IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE
SOUTHERN, DEVELOPED SOLUTION IS FAVORED AND WILL ALSO TAP INTO A
FAIRLY DECENT RESERVOIR OF LOW LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. THE
GENERAL POSITIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS WILL
FAVOR COLD AIR SPILLING SOUTH ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN BODY
OF THE STORM SYSTEM (WHICH BY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE CENTERED
SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM DO INDEED SHOW THE ENTIRE TROUGH SHEARING
OUT BY LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, SUCH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
EVENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. SHOULD THE STORM BE MORE DEVELOPED THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTED (AND DOES NOT SHEAR OUT AS MUCH SATURDAY), THEN
A MORE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. THIS
IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT, THOUGH.

AFTER THIS STORM PASSES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL. AS A MAJOR RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER ARCTIC AIR SOURCE AT THE
READY. GOING INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE APPEARING LIKELY WITH PERHAPS A DAY OR TWO OF MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PINPOINTING WHICH DAY WOULD BE THE COLDEST IS VERY
DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE SENSITIVE NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THAT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE EVOLUTION OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ANY SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF
THE UPPER JET...AS WELL AS EASTWARD TRANSLATION...COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE DEGREE AND DURATION OF ANY ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTRUSION ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL DISSIPATE AS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE
12Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  41  26  60 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  18  42  23  60 /  50   0   0   0
EHA  19  45  23  62 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  19  44  24  64 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  21  40  25  51 /  50   0   0   0
P28  26  42  25  56 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...GERARD


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