Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 311816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  20
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.