000
FXUS63 KDDC 081925
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave ejecting eastward out of the southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level impulse is dropping southward
across the northern Rockies of Idaho and western Montana. Near the
surface, an area of low pressure is pushing southeast across
southern Colorado. Some low level moisture has moved back north
into western Kansas with surface dewpoints up into the lower to
mid teens(F) across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Relatively dry conditions will continue across central and southwest
Kansas tonight as the upper level shortwave now exiting the southern
Rockies into the Western High Plains, lifts northeast into the Great
Lakes Region. Meanwhile, short range models indicate the upper level
shortwave across the northern Rockies dropping further south into
the Four Corners Region tonight, then turning east across the
southern Rockies Monday. As the system approaches Monday, favorable
dynamics aloft, including a +130kt jet and increased divergence,
will help set the stage for possible light snow development across
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma where mid/upper level
moisture is projected to increase. Although the bulk of any snow
fall is expected to remain to our south, the potential exists for
light snow to reach the extreme southern portions of southwest and
south central Kansas with any accumulations generally less than an
inch.

Temperatures will remain well below normal tonight as a weak cold
front pushes through western Kansas by this evening reinforcing the
cold air mass locked in across the Western High Plains. Expect lows
back down into the single digits(F) to near 10F tonight as a result.
Similar high temperatures are likely going into Monday as well with
little change to the overall air mass. Look for highs well up into
the teens(F) to the possibly the lower 20s(F) across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Monday:

A 150 kt 250 hPa jet will traverse across Kansas Monday with the right
entrance region moving across the region and creating some synoptic
lift. Light snow showers will be possible mainly across the southern
row of counties in association with the jet and weak 700 hPa omega/low
level baroclinic boundary. Not expecting any significant accumulations
as the atmosphere is dry near the sfc. Maximums expected in the teens
and 20s F.

Tuesday and beyond:

Tuesday looks to be the first day of above freezing temperatures in
a while as weak downslope westerly flow develops across the region along
with a weak 850 hPa downslope/warm plume. This warm up will be short
lived as another front traverses across Kansas Wednesday, resulting
in subfreezing maximum temperatures again. The rest of the period features
split flow aloft, dry conditions, and moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Low level stratus will persist across central and much of southwest
Kansas through late this afternoon resulting in MVFR cigs and
brief periods of MVFR vsbys at all TAF sites. The stratus is then
expected to lift/scatter out west to east this evening returning
VFR to all three terminals. As for winds, a weak cold front will
push southeast across western Kansas this afternoon turning light
and variable winds northerly 10 to 20kt late this afternoon. The
north to northwesterly winds will prevail through tonight as
surface high pressure extends from the high plains of eastern
Wyoming southeast into Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   6  19   3  37 /   0  10   0   0
GCK   4  19   2  35 /   0  10   0   0
EHA   6  18   4  36 /   0  20   0   0
LBL   6  21   4  38 /   0  20   0   0
HYS   5  18   5  34 /   0   0   0   0
P28  11  23   8  37 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson