638
FXUS63 KDDC 072200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorms likely to move into western
  Kansas late this evening, however not as widespread as the
  previous night with Slight Risk of severe (Level 2 of 5)
  confined to far west central Kansas Johnson to Scott City and
  points northwest.

- Hot temperatures will overspread the southwest Kansas region
  Thursday afternoon with widespread highs in the upper 90s to
  lower 100s.

- Fairly strong summer cold front will push south Friday with
  additional thunderstorm chances and a return to "cooler"
  temperatures with Saturday afternoon highs in the lower to mid
  80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Early this afternoon, the overall sensible weather was rather
quiet with no thunderstorms around or even in the vicinity of
southwest Kansas. By 19Z, there was a small corridor of surface-
based cumulus development in our northern counties from roughly
Bazine up toward Ellis along I-70. Earlier in the day, there was
a weak surface wind convergence axis, however this subtle
convergence axis was weakening through the mid-afternoon, and
there is only a very slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm
or two along this convergence axis. As winds everywhere become
southeasterly, the focus will turn way back west, as typical
this time of year for this time of the day, toward the higher
terrain of Colorado, specifically Palmer Divide and Cheyenne
Ridge region. This is where, once again, one or two
strong/severe mesoscale convective systems (MCS) will
materialize, eventually growing further upscale with strong cold
pools and begin rolling southeast toward far west central
and/or far southwest Kansas. The deep layer shear and
thermodynamic profile are not as impressive as yesterday (i.e.
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s vs. the upper 60s to lower 70s
like we have seen the past couple of days), so MCS maintenance
will be a little lower, and thus the prospects of MCS duration
late into the night are not quite as likely as the past couple
of nights. POPs this evening through late night are lower than
last night, as a result, given lower probability of a more
sustained MCS tonight, however these will need to be adjusted
upward or downward based on latest satellite, radar, and HRRR
model trends this evening.

Over the next couple of days, thunderstorm chances really
decrease as the upper level ridge expands across Colorado and
adjacent western Kansas, and this will begin a warming trend
especially Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday will be the hottest
day of the 7- day period ahead of the next cold front. We
should see afternoon highs Thursday well into the upper 90s with
some lower 100s most likely across the western DDC CWA,
generally west of U283 and also the Red Hills region along the
Oklahoma line. The resulting heat index will likely not be
pushing into Heat Advisory criteria as dewpoints will likely be
lower to the mid to upper 50s resulting in good evaporation
potential with relative humidity falling well into the 20s
percent. We will only have one day of widespread highs upper 90s
to around 100 as a rather impressive cold front (by July
standards) will push south on Friday. Well into the cooler air
mass Saturday, afternoon highs will likely be a refreshing lower
to mid 80s across our southwest Kansas region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Good flying weather will continue to prevail through this TAF
period, with VFR and light winds. Satellite and radar imagery at
2130z showed thunderstorms over eastern Colorado. The extent to
which these storms will organize into another complex and move
southeast into SW KS tonight, is again unclear. Any convective
activity 03-12z Tue would favor the western airports LBL/GCK,
but with no confidence opted to keep the 00z TAFs dry. Winds
through Tuesday will remain light, generally less than 12 kts,
outside of any thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner