000
FXUS63 KDDC 301948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM I300 TO I308 APPEARS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. BASED ON
15Z AND 18Z VERIFICATION EARLIER TODAY WILL THEREFORE BE USING THE
THE I300 TO I308 LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS GUIDE FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION AS IMPROVING MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RAP THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FROM 03Z AND
09Z SATURDAY. AFTER 09Z ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO DEVELOPS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SO THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, OR AT LEAST BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED, EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE TOP DOWN APPROACH FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE BOTH SUPPORT MAINLY A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR ALL
BUT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BASED ON THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
SHOULD A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPS.

AREAS OF FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE
MOISTURE PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ON THURSDAY SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY GIVEN THE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. FURTHER
EAST MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE SO WILL FAVOR
THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM NEAR
40 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 40S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER.  IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  44  33  35 /  80  60  60  10
GCK  34  46  34  35 /  70  50  50   0
EHA  33  44  34  37 /  60  50  50   0
LBL  34  44  36  37 /  80  60  60  10
HYS  33  42  28  32 /  80  50  60   0
P28  36  42  38  38 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT