Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262043
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
343 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Focus in the near term is on convective chances this evening and
during the overnight. Broad surface high pressure across the
Northern Plains into Kansas today is slowly giving way to lee side
troughing/cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. Convective allowing
models this afternoon continue to develop discreet storms across the
Raton Mesa region, with eastward propagation into southwest Kansas by
early this evening, leaving the major uncertainty lying in how far
east any of this convection may reach and the duration of it`s
severe mode. Large hail and damaging will be the primary threats
with any storms.

The forecast area will again be completely post frontal on Saturday,
with any convection being relegated to initiation over the more
upslope high terrain regions of south central CO. Temperatures will
not rise as warm Saturday afternoon with the northern reaches only
the low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

A developing ridge over the western states heading into next week
will place western KS in general northwest flow limiting the
coverage of organized severe convection through mid week. Cyclonic
flow across the northern plains with broader zonal flow farther
south maintains a near climatology pattern over the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Discreet thunderstorms moving out of eastern Colorado may
develop as far east as GCK or DDC later this evening, however the
trend is likely for a few storms to be weakening into central
Kansas late evening. Another MCS however will be moving through
northwest Kansas after midnight. Allowing at least the HYS
terminal to see a window of opportunity for convection during the
overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  78  52  78 /  20  20  10   0
GCK  56  75  50  77 /  20  20  20   0
EHA  55  78  50  76 /  10  20  30   0
LBL  57  80  52  77 /  20  20  20   0
HYS  59  72  52  77 /  10  40  10   0
P28  62  85  56  80 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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