000
FXUS63 KDDC 121711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

At 12z Wednesday a 500mb high ridge axis extended from the
Pacific Northwest into northern Alberta, and an upper level trough
was located near the coast of British Columbia. East of this upper
level ridge axis a northwest flow was present across the Northern
and Central High Plains with 40 to 60 meter height rises observed
from Eastern Colorado to Eastern Montana and western North Dakota.
At the 700mb level a northwest flow was also observed along the
lee of the Rockies. 850mb temperatures at 12z Wednesday varied -1c
at North Platte to -3c at Dodge City, Amarillo and Topeka to -5c
at Omaha. At ridge axis at the surface earlier this morning was
located from eastern Colorado into the panhandle of Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

Downslope flow will be returning across the Central High Plains
today through much of the troposphere. Upper level ridging will be
expanding east across the Northern Rockies and will dampen out by
tonight. The anticyclonic wave-breaking low over the southwest CONUS
will have no influence on our weather over the next couple of days
as we progress further into a classic downslope flow regime. This
will lead to a return to seasonal temperatures in the upper 50s and
60s. For today, we adjusted up just a degree or so the forecast high
with most areas seeing highs in the 53 to 56 range. Direct
insolation will lead to decent boundary layer mixing, resulting in
some gusty northwest winds in the afternoon...but nothing like what
we saw yesterday. Peak sustained winds today will be around 16 to 18
knots with some gusts in the mid 20s. The surface high across the
Rockies will shift southeast across the Southern Plains tonight with
a weak pressure gradient across Kansas tonight. Light winds will
result, which should allow temperatures to fall well below freezing
into the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

Medium range models indicate a closed off upper level low opening up
as it begins to shift eastward across the Desert Southwest Thursday
and into the South Plains Friday bringing marginal precip chances to
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, and possibly extreme southern
portions of southwest and south central Kansas based on the
projected track of the shortwave. However, a lack of lower/mid
level moisture will limit what little precip may occur. A secondary
upper level shortwave is expected to drop southeast out of the
Pacific Northwest into the Colorado Rockies Saturday setting up
another shot for precip to portions of western Kansas Saturday
evening into Sunday.

Temperatures will rebound quickly Thursday as arctic high pressure
moves further south across Texas while lee side troughing redevelops
across eastern Colorado. This will help turn an already downsloping
northwest flow back to the southwest throughout the day drawing much
warmer H85 temperatures into the area with values around 10C across
central Kansas to the mid Teens(C) in far southwest Kansas. Highs
will easily reach the 60s(F) Thursday afternoon with near 70F
possible in some locations. A weak cold front is then projected to
push through western Kansas early Friday curbing the warming trend
with highs only up into the 50s(F) to near 60F. Slightly warmer
temperatures return Saturday as lee side troughing redevelops
across eastern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

Gusty northwest winds will subside this afternoon, and then
gradually back more to the west after sunset as a surface ridge
axis moves across northern Texas and western Oklahoma. West winds
at less than 10 knots will continue overnight but by early
Thursday morning begin to back more to the southwest as a surface
pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. VFR
conditions are expected based on 12z model soundings and large
scale subsidence this afternoon and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  26  68  42 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  53  24  68  38 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  51  28  67  46 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  25  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  55  25  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  28  69  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert