Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS(F) AND
THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM. THE NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE ONLY CHALLENGE WILL COME
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AS SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH, ESPECIALLY IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE SLIGHT INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD INCREASE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENOUGH AS WELL. DECIDED TO HEDGE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE/GRIDDED MODEL 2-METER TEMPERATURE FIELDS CONSIDERING THESE
FACTORS (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER)...WITH LOWS IN THESE AREAS IN THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZE DRIZZLE EVENT AS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UNSATURATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE
PROPER SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS POSSIBLE AND THUS
THIS REGION MAY SEE MORE IN TERMS OF SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SPEAKING
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, CONTINUED TO EMPLOY THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WITH
MATCHED PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENTIAL WEATHER TYPES. USING THIS TECHNIQUE,
INDEED, MOST OF THE REGION HAS A DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THIS WHOLE EVENT IS TURNING INTO A DUD AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER
IS CONCERNED. I SUPPOSE SOME SLICK AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FREEZE
DRIZZLE, BUT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS
THE MOST PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL
BE WELL EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SOME MODIFICATIONS OF SUPERBLEND POPS WERE DONE AFTER WFO COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN BOREAL WINTER AND
THUS HAVE GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
MAYBE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  25  45  31 /   0   0  20  20
GCK  40  25  47  30 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  43  32  50  30 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  30  48  32 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  38  20  40  28 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  25  42  32 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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