Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 061700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Northerly winds will shift to the southeast this afternoon with
increasing cloudiness this evening. This is as an upper level
disturbance moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the
Central Rockies by this evening. This disturbance will then move
into the Central Plains Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies are
expected overnight with chances of snow starting across west
central Kansas a few hours after midnight. Snow chances then
spread eastward into central Kansas by sunrise Wednesday. The bulk
of this system will move through the area Wednesday and will be
talked about more in the long term section. As for temperatures,
highs today look to range from the lower 30s across northwest
Kansas to lower 40s across south central Kansas. Lows tonight are
anticipated to range from the mid teens across northwest Kansas to
mid 20s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The remainder of the aforementioned system will move through the
area Wednesday bringing mostly cloud skies and scattered snow
showers to western Kansas. The area that looks to receive the
majority of snow will be across northern Kansas and west central
Kansas with lesser amounts as you head farther south. In fact,
areas along the KS/OK border may not receive any snow at all. Snow
chances diminish from west to east Wednesday afternoon with dry
conditions and decreasing cloudiness Wednesday night. This system
will also help push through a cold front Wednesday with northerly
winds and a much colder air mass behind it. Temperatures Wednesday
look to range from the lower 20s across northwest Kansas to lower
30s across south central Kansas. Lows Wednesday night are expected
to fall into the single digits with the exception of south central
Kansas where teens will be found. The cold air mass continues to
filter into the area Thursday with highs only reaching into the
20s with lows Thursday night in the single digits and lower teens.
Wind chills down to the negative single digits are also expected
Wednesday and Thursday mornings with dry conditions. The next
system looks to move through the area this weekend, however, it
looks to trek to the north of the CWA with only an increase in
cloudiness expected. As for temperatures, highs Friday are
anticipated to rise into the 30s with 40s this weekend. Lows will
rebound into the 20s with the exception of west central Kansas
where upper teens could be found.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

NW winds will diminish and become light and variable this
afternoon, as surface high translates SE across SW KS. SE surface
winds will commence after sunset as this high moves to eastern
Kansas. VFR expected to continue through at least 06z Wed at all
airports, although cigs will be lowering to near 5-7k ft AGL.
After 06z Wed, SE winds increase and become gusty, 10-20 kts,
gusting 25 kts, as strong shortwave approaches from Colorado.
After 12z Wed, cigs will continue to lower, with increasing E/NE
winds, gusting 25-28 kts. At GCK/DDC, included MVFR stratus cigs
after 16z Wed, along with VCSH for passing -SHSN. Snow is most
likely at HYS Wednesday morning, where one inch of accumulation is
possible. Limited vis in -SN/BLSN possible at HYS 12-18z Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  22  30   8 /   0  20  30   0
GCK  38  20  27   7 /   0  20  40   0
EHA  37  19  30   8 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  22  32   9 /   0  10  20   0
HYS  37  19  25   8 /   0  30  50   0
P28  43  25  35  14 /   0  10  30   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner


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