Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 081147
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Friday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Ideal radiational cooling has allowed temperatures to tank into
the 10-15 degree range at many locations this evening. Mid and
high clouds are approaching from the NW, associated with warm air
advection and an embedded shortwave. Expecting a period of mid
layer overcast through about sunrise, under which temperatures
will slowly rise. Light SW winds currently will veer more NWly by
sunrise, and most locations will be back in the 20s by 6 am.

Friday...Milder, but also windy. Any clouds near sunrise will
clear quickly, allowing for plenty of sunshine. With the very dry
ground, and a net change of +5C at 850 mb versus Thursday,
temperatures will recover noticeably Friday afternoon. Max T
grids show a gradient from mid 40s east to upper 50s west. Elected
to go a few degrees above MOS guidance given very dry soils. The
Kansas wind will blow again, with N/NW winds averaging 20-30 mph
across the eastern zones, with stronger north winds along and west
of US 83. For example, 00z MAV guidance depicts sustained winds
of 28 kts at Liberal at midday. Areas of blowing dust are possible
given the persistently dry conditions.

Tonight...Cirrus at times and not as cold, with temperatures
falling to the mid to upper 20s with a light NW wind.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 120 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The forecast remains completely dry through this long term
forecast period, with high confidence SW KS will remain dry at
least through December 17th. So once again we are left with minor
temperature fluctuations and dry wind shifts. The latest 00z run
of the ECMWF model depicts no hints of a pattern change that would
allow moisture to return to the central plains, through at least
December 17.

Saturday and Sunday...Temperatures moderate over the weekend, as
500 mb heights and thicknesses rise and more of a downslope
component is realized. High confidence that the warmest day will
be Sunday, when all zones will easily cruise into the 60s.
Noted that the 00z ECMWF bias-corrected guidance is warmer than
Sunday`s forecasted temperatures, and will likely be correct with
the bone dry ground.

The next shortwave embedded in the relentless NW flow swings
through the plains on Monday, forcing yet another dry cold frontal
passage through SW KS. The brunt of the associated cold airmass
will be well removed to the NE of SW KS, with any temperature
reductions in our region minor. Did increase the NW winds in the
grids for Monday over the superblend starting point.

The next shortwave tops the mega-ridge, heading through British
Columbia on Tuesday morning, and then dives SE toward SW KS on
Wednesday. Both 00z GFS/ECMWF depict this feature, with GFS
forecasting a moisture-starved wind shift and temporary increase
in clouds. ECMWF is stronger with this system, developing a closed
low over Montana Tuesday, then diving it due south along the spine
of the Rockies, ending up near the Four Corners 6 pm Wednesday.
Either solution would only provide for a period of clouds, a wind
shift, and minor temperature reductions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 547 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A surface low pressure trough will move across central and southwest
Kansas this morning. Winds will be increasing and becoming northerly
behind the trough with peak gusts ranging from around 25 knots at Hays
to 35-40 knots at Garden City and Liberal. Winds will be diminishing
to 10 knots or less around or shortly after sunset. VFR conditions
are expected to prevail through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

An elevated risk of wildfire spread is expected during the midday
and afternoon hours on Friday. The most critical areas are
expected along and especially west of US 83, particularly near the
Kansas/Colorado border. Here, strong north winds gusting near
40 mph will combine with min RH of 18-23%. Red flag criteria are not
expected to be met on a widespread basis. That stated, any ignitions
will be difficult to control given the gusty winds and very dry
dormant vegetation. Any outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  28  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  51  25  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  26  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  53  25  56  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  47  28  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
P28  49  26  52  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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