Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

INITIALLY FOR THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
AS MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF A
STALLED FRONT. FURTHER, SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX INTERACTS WITH A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE WEATHER REGIME WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WOBBLES ONLY SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS WAVE, THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 100-KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL SIT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CLOSER TO THE GROUND, A SURFACE LOW OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ANTICIPATED THE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTEAD...THIS
WILL KEEP A COOLER BUT MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER
CLOUD COVER REMAINING AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS SETUP WILL
BE TRICKY, BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL BE LIKELY
FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE MID 70S OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER, A NARROW RIBBON OF CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY
MID AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LAKIN TO MEADE LINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.
DESPITE LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION, CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING ABLE
TO SUSTAIN INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL AS LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND GOOD CELL ORGANIZATION APPEARING UNLIKELY. HOWEVER,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 56 DURING THE
LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE STORMS FOCUS ALONG THE NOSE
OF A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.
PERHAPS THE BEST LOOKING DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON A GREATER SCALE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN THE MODELS DEVELOP A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR ELKHART. IN THE MEANTIME, A CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THE NAM
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN COLORADO LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING
INTO FAR WESTERN KS, HOWEVER THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC,
LEAVING OUR AREA IN SUBSIDENT FLOW INTO TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, IN
ADDITION TO GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES FOR SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, THE STILL RECENTLY BETTER PERFORMING ECMWF
MOS WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 4
PERIODS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO LATE IN THE WEEK, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A LARGE PVA REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RETURNS. BY
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SETUP COULD BECOME MORE
SUBSIDENT AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, LASTING INTO
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z). WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE WIND FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CIGS AND PERHAPS VISBYS WILL
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BETWEEN 04 AND 07Z, AND THEN IMPROVE AFTER 14Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  61  79  55 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  70  54  76  52 /  20  40  20  30
EHA  76  53  75  53 /  20  40  20  20
LBL  74  55  78  54 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  69  58  77  53 /  20  30  30  20
P28  71  60  83  58 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH


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