Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282126
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD. SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SNOW EVENT.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET AS
WARM AS TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN SCOTT CITY
TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AT PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
AND DOME OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FELT
BEHIND IT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN
THE AFTERNOON SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
20S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL EVENING. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE CHANCE OF
SNOW ENDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO
THE TEENS WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS NOT EVEN
MAKING IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS TOWARDS SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND ZERO
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL EVEN FURTHER IF CLOUDS DECREASE
FASTER THAN EXPECTED CREATING MAX RADIATION COOLING. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. HIGHS REBOUND TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS SUGGESTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BUT IF MODELS REMAIN LIKE
THEY ARE NOW, SOME PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS COULD RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE SNOW. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD,
LEADING TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  17  31   5   9 /   0  20  60  60
GCK  13  28   3   8 /   0  50  70  60
EHA  15  29   6   9 /   0  20  60  60
LBL  15  32   9  12 /   0  20  60  60
HYS  16  28   0   7 /   0  60  60  40
P28  19  37  13  16 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH



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