Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 300621
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
121 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...Updated to correct Synopsis...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

At 00z Tuesday a 500mb trough extended from northwest New Mexico
into southwest Nebraska. Further east a 700mb to 500mb ridge axis
was located from Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley. Over the Central
and Southern Plains a south to southeasterly flow was evident from
the 850mb to 500mb level which continues to draw tropical moisture
into western Kansas. At the surface a weak surface boundary
stationary front was located from northeast Kansas to far western
Oklahoma. Across the Northern Plains a surface cold front
stretched from southern Minnesota, across South Dakota, to
southeast Montana.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are likely
across portions of western and central Kansas tonight as a series
of H5 vort maxima continue to lift northeast across the Western
High Plains within a conveyor belt of tropical moisture. Short
range models show the H5 vort maxima cycling around a weak upper
low situated across the Four Corners Region while broad upper
level ridging remains in control across the southeastern CONUS. As
the flow aloft becomes increasingly difluent overnight, a +70kt
jet core is projected to climb northeast across the Western High
Plains with an a right entry region setting up generally across
western Kansas. Although instability will remain fairly modest
(generally under 1000 J/Kg), periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected through early Tuesday. Factoring in
the high amounts of QPF with PW values in excess of 1.5 inches,
periods of heavy rainfall will be possible increasing the
potential for localized flooding.

Little change to the overall air mass is expected tonight while
surface dewpoints remain generally in the 60s(F). So look for lows
back down into the mid to upper 60s(F) overnight with the lower
70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. With widespread precip
and cloud cover likely through early Tuesday, highs may struggle
to reach the 80s(F) across western and portions of central Kansas
Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Precip chances will continue through at least mid week even as a
building upper level ridge of high pressure shifts eastward out
of the Intermountain West into the Northern and Western High
Plains. The tropical plume mentioned in the early term will
continue to provide ample moisture in the mid/upper levels while a
southeasterly upslope flow redevelops across western Kansas in
wake of a weak frontal passage Monday night/early Tuesday.
Regardless of a prevailing weak flow aloft, enough instability
will be present to support possible showers and thunderstorms
across much of the area Wednesday with a shift in focus to the
south and west on Thursday as the frontal boundary sets up from
the Texas Panhandle northwestward into eastern Colorado.

Temperatures are not likely to vary much with little change to the
air mass across the high plains. Highs are expected to remain near
to possibly a little below normal depending on precip coverage and
cloud cover. In general, highs can be expected to reach the
80s(F) with lows in the 60s(F) through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Light winds can be expected overnight. Model soundings suggest an
extensive area of mid to high level moisture across western Kansas
through Tuesday evening. Near the surface a shallow area of
moisture is forecast by the NAM and HRRR between 06z and 15z
Tuesday. Given the rain that fell during the late day and evening
hours along with the light winds it does appears areas of fog will
be possible across most, if not all, of western Kansas early this
morning. Dense fog appears more isolated so will trend towards
mainly 1-3 mile fog at times around daybreak at all three taf
sites with a brief period of IFR to MVFR ceilings. Another round
of thunderstorms are expected to develop and/or spread into
western Kansas during the day on Tuesday and in the steadier and
heavier showers MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  81  64  81 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  63  80  63  80 /  50  70  60  40
EHA  62  76  62  82 /  60  60  60  40
LBL  62  79  63  82 /  70  60  60  50
HYS  65  80  64  77 /  70  60  60  50
P28  68  85  68  84 /  70  50  60  60

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert



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