Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 280513
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas today as short range
models indicate upper level ridging shifting slowly eastward across
the Central Plains during the period. A weak flow aloft and a lack of
moisture/instability will void any chances for precip through Friday
night. A warming trend will continue today as a prevailing southerly
flow draws warmer air northward into western Kansas pushing H85
temperatures up around to a little above 20C today. Expect highs well
into the mid to upper 80s(F) this afternoon with near 90F possible in
some locations. Look for lows only down into the 50s(F) Friday night
with the lower 60s(F) even possible across south central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
The trough axis will remain just north of the southwest KS region
through Saturday midday before a cold front finally pushes down
into western Kansas. Saturday now looks very warm over a larger
area with widespread mid to upper 80s in the forecast yet again.
In fact, the upper 80s will need to be expanded northward if the
timing of the new ECMWF is to be trusted. Sunday certainly looks
cooler, but still above average for the date with highs in the
lower to mid 70s. This will be followed by yet another breezy to
potentially windy day Monday with widespread mid 80s in the
forecast. A stronger cold front will push in behind this late
Monday Night. This front will stall out and potentially be a
player in mid to late next week weather as the global models
suggest a deep trough moving into the Desert Southwest region. If
this pans out with a boundary just to our south, we should see a
much better pattern for precipitation. It is way too early,
though, to determine if this is indeed a legitimate signal in the
global models to really chew on. Nevertheless, we will carry some
Chance POPs beginning Wednesday going into Thursday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday evening.
Southerly winds 5 to 15kt will persist across western Kansas overnight
as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored across eastern
Colorado. Southerly winds will increase 15 to 25kt Friday afternoon
as the lee side trough strengthens during the day.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 57 88 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 54 87 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 54 87 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 54 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 57 86 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
P28 57 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 0