Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271956
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
156 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 12Z TUESDAY, MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO BY DAYBREAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BETWEEN 06Z
WEDNESDAY AND 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BASED
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE COOLING FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS IN THE 900MB TO
850MB LEVEL FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY THE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 70 TO NEAR 75.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OFF TO THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
SLOW IN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND SURFACE PRESSURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENCE OF
SEASONABLY COOL AIR DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND THEN 20S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO ARIZONA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
SATURDAY, ENHANCING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST, COLDER AIR WILL PROGRESS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS NOT THAT COLD.
THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2000 FT WILL PROBABLY BE AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THEREFORE, RAIN OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE, ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM AS LATEST
GEM/ECMWF MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST 20S/30S ARE MORE LIKELY FOR HIGHS.
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES COULD CONCEIVABLY FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON THE 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WHICH INDICATED ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z
WEDNESDAY TO 18Z WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  68  38  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  36  67  36  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  71  38  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  66  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  72  41  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT


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