000
FXUS63 KDDC 212017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Broad upper level cyclonic flow the western and central U.S.
around an upper level low centered over the western Great Lakes
this morning. A weak disturbance was moving out over western
Kansas this morning while a stronger shortwave trough was dropping
into Utah. An area of scattered showers along with a few rumbles
of thunder has been propagating across southwest into south
central Kansas, aided by the right entrance region of a 70 knot
jet over north central Kansas. Farther west, a few thunderstorms
were firing up and moving east off of the Raton Mesa.

SPC Mesoanalysis is showing modest but increasing MUCape values
around 500-1000 j/kg along with around 40 knots of 0-6km Bulk
Shear over the southwest corner of Kansas this afternoon.
Thunderstorms over southeast Colorado will be moving/developing
into this area over the next 3-6 hours. Storms will be capable of
producing some hail and possibly some gusty winds. Can`t totally
rule out an isolated severe storm in that area early this evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across southwest
into central Kansas overnight. This looks reasonable as the Utah
shortwave heads toward the High Plains and the upper jet axis
continues along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Precipitation chances
will be diminishing from northwest to southeast on Monday as the
shortwave trough moves through.

Temperatures should fall to around 50 degrees, more or less, overnight.
Have trimmed a few degrees off of Mondays high temperatures given
some lingering showers and cloudiness.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Upper flow over the High Plains becomes more meridional on Monday into
Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances increase again Monday night as another
shortwave dives south out of the northern High Plains. Western Kansas
remains under a marginal risk for severe weather again but this may
depend on how early storms develop as instability decreases by
Monday evening. Another weak shortwave is progged to move southward
into Kansas Tuesday afternoon, bringing at least a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms to northwest and west central Kansas.

We should be a dry and warm trend through the mid to latter part
of the week as an upper level ridge builds southeast across the
central part of the U.S. The medium range models show another
closed upper low dropping southeast to along the U.S./Canadian
border later in the week forcing upper level wind flow to a more
zonal pattern over the western and central U.S. Return southerly
flow will bring warmer air back into southwest Kansas with highs
back into the 80s Thursday through Saturday. Weak disturbances in
the flow should also bring increasing chances for thunderstorms
back to western Kansas for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Scattered showers, mainly in the form of sprinkles, will move across
southwest into south central Kansas through the early part of this
period. An isolated thundershower could also occur in this area.
By late afternoon and early evening, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop over southeast Colorado and move into
southwest Kansas. Given the scattered nature of the storms, will
carry VCTS at the southwest Kansas starting early this evening
and in the Hays area later tonight. MVFR cigs are expected to
develop in southwest Kansas by Monday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  70  47  66 /  40  50  30  10
GCK  48  72  46  65 /  40  30  30  20
EHA  49  70  47  65 /  50  30  30  10
LBL  50  73  48  67 /  50  40  30  10
HYS  50  70  47  65 /  40  40  50  20
P28  52  70  51  69 /  40  50  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard