Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301104
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

A wedge of surface high pressure will remain in place extending
from the Lake Superior region through the Southern Plains this
afternoon. Mainly sunny conditions are expected with the caveat of
cirrus today, as the surface high provides another day of
generally light easterly surface winds. Models indicate
temperatures not too far off from the highs experienced on
Thursday; in the low to mid 70s once again with warmer highs near
80 in the far southwest. The dry pattern continues into Saturday,
although temperatures should be warming into the upper 70s and low
80s. The weak upper ridging over the High Plains and Rockies region
has for a few model runs indicated the potential for a shortwave
moving through the flow later tonight. Still a relatively dry
environment across western KS as far as surface moisture, the NAM
with it`s 500+ J/kg MUCAPE continues to develop showers/storms
late Saturday overnight and maybe into early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Following a warming trend into the mid 80s by Monday, a chance
for numerous thunderstorms exists in the Tuesday night- Wednesday
timeframe, at least for central Kansas counties. The the ECMWF and
GFS has been consistent in driving a strong upper low into the
northern High Plains. The pattern suggests it may be dry in the
far west with the focus for convective activity across the central
KS counties or I.E. Dodge and eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Gusty south to southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will develop by
late morning as surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of
the Rockies and stronger winds in the boundary layer mixes down to
the surface. Clear to mostly clear conditions today will give way
to increasing mid level moisture overnight as as an upper level
disturbance moves out of the southern Rockies and into the West
Central High Plains. Based on model soundings the increasing
moisture will be above the 700mb level.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  53  79  55 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  76  52  80  54 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  81  52  81  54 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  79  54  82  55 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  72  51  76  54 /   0   0  10  20
P28  72  53  77  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert


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