000
FXUS63 KDDC 042103
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TONIGHT:

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS LOWS. MOS GUIDANCE IS MUCH COLDER THAN
RAW MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES. WITH LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, WOULD SIDE WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
IS EXITING QUITE FAST AND SKIES ARE CLEARING. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW TOO,
SO CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THE CHANCE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WARMED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE RAW
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

TOMORROW:

A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF THE ROCK PILE IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
TYPICALLY, THIS IS A WARMER WIND FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE ONGOING MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID STILL LOOKED ON TRACK AND SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE.
ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOULD MELT TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/CIGS FOR KGCK/KDDC WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. KHYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR THROUGH TAF PD. N/NE WINDS
10-15 KT BECOMING SW 5-10 KT BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  42  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  42  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  10  43  21  57 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  10  43  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  42  21  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  12  41  20  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN