Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240623
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
123 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Dependent on the time frame for air mass recovery from yesterday`s
convection across the high plains southward into the panhandle of
Texas, thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of
southwest Kansas tonight into Tuesday as short range models
indicate a difluent southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Central Plains. The RAP13 and HRRR initialize well with the
surface low in extreme southwest Kansas and an attendant frontal
boundary extending northeast into north central Kansas and showing
both lifting northward across western Kansas through this evening.
A southeasterly upslope flow will redevelop across central and
much of southwest Kansas as a result, and in turn, draw moisture
back to the north raising surface dewpoints up into the lower and
mid 60s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas. Heating of
the lower/mid levels will increase this afternoon as the
prevailing lower cloud deck continues to slowly scatter out,
allowing lower/mid level lapse rates to steepen. Depending on how
long this takes, thunderstorms will be possible toward early evening
as the cap weakens with the best chance for convection associated
with the frontal boundary as it lifts north. Short fuse model
soundings show SBCAPE values climbing in excess of 4000 J/KG
across south central and eastern southwest Kansas through early
this evening, increasing severe potential. Based on the
substantially high amount of CAPE, large hail will be the primary
threat with damaging winds also possible. Due to a modest amount
of vertical shear present, an isolated tornado threat closer to
the Oklahoma border does exist.

A few isolated storms may develop across eastern Colorado within
an upslope flow and move into west central Kansas later tonight
as an H5 vort maxima kicks northeast out of the Southern Rockies
into the Western High Plains. However, with less instability
available, the potential for severe storms will be limited with
damaging winds the main threat.

A prevailing low level south to southeasterly flow across western
Kansas tonight will help reinforce a moisture pool across the
area with surface dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s(F) to the
mid 60s(F). Look for lows generally in the 60s(F) toward daybreak
Tuesday with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central Kansas.
For Tuesday, warm air advection across the high plains will push
H85 temperatures well up into the mid to upper 20s(C) across
southwest and much of central Kansas. Widespread 80s(F) can be
expected for highs Tuesday afternoon with near 90F possible in
extreme southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of
southwest Kansas Tuesday evening as medium range models show
another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the
Southern Rockies into the high plains of western Kansas. Although
the flow aloft will remain fairly weak, considerable moisture and
instability will be present to support thunderstorm development
along and ahead of a dryline projected to extend southward
across southwest Kansas off of an advancing surface low out of
eastern Colorado. Significant instability will heighten the
potential for severe storms, particularly across central Kansas.
The focus for precip shifts eastward Wednesday as drier air lifts
northeast into southwest Kansas behind a dryline expected to
push a little eastward across the area.

Prevailing southerlies near the surface will reinforce the
warmer air mass across the high plains Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs mainly up into the 80s(F) can be expected each day with a
few lower 90s(F) possible in some locations. Cooler temperatures
are expected by Friday with a cold front pushing through western
Kansas toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A weak stationary front extending from eastern Nebraska across
northwest Kansas into a surface low in eastern Colorado will move
little today. A cluster of thunderstorms at the nose of the low
level jet in northern Kansas will propagate to the east-southeast
and should be east of HYS by 11Z. Patchy stratus with bases
010-020 will become widespread by 09z and persist through the
early morning hours. Visibilities may be restricted to 3-5SM in
mist around sunrise. The stratus should erode during the morning
hours to sct to bkn030-040 by 18Z. Low level winds generally will
be from the south-southeast at 15-20 kts but will be variable and
gusty near the thunderstorm cluster in northern Kansas.

A dryline will mix east to near DDC this afternoon, and severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop near DDC around 21Z and spread
east into central Kansas during the evening hours. Low level winds
will veer above the surface Tuesday night, and Tuesday night may
be free of stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  87  64  89 /  30  20  20  10
GCK  58  87  60  89 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  58  90  57  88 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  62  90  62  91 /  20  10  10   0
HYS  60  84  63  88 /  40  20  20  10
P28  67  86  67  91 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Ruthi



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