Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR SUNDAY. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
AND DOME OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FELT
BEHIND IT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN
THE AFTERNOON SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
20S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL EVENING. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE CHANCE OF
SNOW ENDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO
THE TEENS WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS NOT EVEN
MAKING IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS TOWARDS SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND ZERO
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL EVEN FURTHER IF CLOUDS DECREASE
FASTER THAN EXPECTED CREATING MAX RADIATION COOLING. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. HIGHS REBOUND TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS SUGGESTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BUT IF MODELS REMAIN LIKE
THEY ARE NOW, SOME PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS COULD RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE SNOW. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT WINDS TO TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WITH LITTLE OTHER
VARIABLE AVIATION WEATHER EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  17  30   8 /   0   0  20  30
GCK  36  13  25   5 /   0   0  30  40
EHA  37  17  29   7 /   0   0  20  30
LBL  37  15  30   9 /   0   0  20  30
HYS  37  17  25   4 /   0   0  30  40
P28  43  20  37  14 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...AJOHNSON


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