Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231802
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A drier period can be expected today and tonight regardless of an
upper level shortwave dropping southeast across the Northern Plains.
While a westerly flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains,
a northwesterly downslope flow will reinforce a drier air mass already
settled across the region. This will cap precip chances across western
Kansas through Tuesday night. Under the influence of the aforementioned
northwesterly downslope flow, highs are expected to reach well up into
the 40s(F) this afternoon with the lower 50s(F) possible closer to the
Oklahoma border. With little change to the overall air mass Tuesday
night, expect lows generally down into the teens(F) and the 20s(F).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A dry period will continue through the end of the week as weak upper
level ridging moves out of the Intermountain West into the Central
Plains Wednesday and Thursday. A weak flow aloft and reinforced dry
air in the lower levels within a southwest downslope flow will hinder
any precip chances through Friday. A warming trend will continue
Wednesday as lee side troughing develops across eastern Colorado in
response to the upper level ridging moving out of the Colorado Rockies
into the Western High Plains. This will usher warmer/drier air into
western Kansas pushing H85 temperatures above 5C to near 10C. Should
see widespread 50s(F) for highs Wednesday afternoon. Well above normal
temperatures arrive Thursday with highs pushing into the 60s(F). Near
70F is very possible in portions of extreme southwest Kansas. A cold
front projected to push through western Kansas Friday will bring an
end to the warming trend but with highs still remaining above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Quiet aviation weather will continue through Wednesday as upper
level high pressure ridge moves across the Rockies into the
western Great Plains. Wind direction is expected to remain from
the northwest at 11 to 14 knots today, but winds will shift to the
south-southwest on Wednesday as a leeside trough develops. VFR
flight category will continue with dry air and downslope momentum
in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  21  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  19  57  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  21  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  19  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  19  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  23  57  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid


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