Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231515
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1015 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

WV imagery indicates a strong upper level trough of low pressure
shifting slowly east-southeast across the Great Basin creating a
southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the
surface, low pressure is anchored across southeast Colorado with an
attendant stationary frontal boundary extending northeast into
extreme northwest Kansas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Latest radar trends of the storms over in E Co/NE NM continues to
show almost a due north movement as of 9 am. This combined with
the forecast mean cloud layer winds, and where the better
moisture/instability axis will be located through late day it
appears that this area of convection over E Co/E NM will stay
west of the Colorado/Kansas border through late day. As a result
will be lowering chances for convection in our western counties
late this morning and early this afternoon. Did notice that some
of the latest model run do try to develop some convection during
the mid to late afternoon across western Kansas so at this time
will keep pops increasing during the mid to late day west of
highway 283.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

An upper level low will move out of Nevada today then over Utah
tonight. Upper level shortwaves will move around the periphery of
this low enhancing lift across eastern Colorado and western
Kansas. Meanwhile, a surface frontal boundary will remain
stationary across eastern Colorado today then slowly slide
eastward into far western Kansas tonight. This will be the main
focal point where storms are expected to develop. Most of the
activity looks to remain across eastern Colorado this morning into
the early afternoon hours. Mid level clouds will increase in
coverage across western Kansas as the day progresses. Storms are
then expected to slide into far western Kansas late this afternoon
into the evening hours. A few of these storms may become strong to
severe with hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight with
the best chance located across far western Kansas. Breezy
southerly winds will continue through the short term as we will be
ahead of the aforementioned front. As for temperatures, highs
today are expected to range from around 80 degrees along the KS/CO
border to around 90 degrees across central and south central
Kansas. Lows tonight are anticipated to range form around 60
degrees along the KS/Co border to upper 60s across central and
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The upper level low will move into the Central Rockies Saturday
night into Sunday, then into the Northern Plains Monday into
Tuesday. The frontal boundary at the surface will continue to push
eastward with rain chances expected over the entire CWA Sunday and
Monday. Precipitation chances are then expected to end from west
to east Tuesday. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to continue
through Monday with decreasing cloudiness from west to east
Tuesday. Models suggest a drier weather paten Wednesday through
Friday as upper level system moves out of the area with high
pressure being the dominate feature at the surface. As for
temperatures, highs Sunday look to range from the mid 70s across
west central Kansas to upper 80s across south central Kansas.
Below normal temperatures are then expected for the first part of
next week and only rise into the lower 70s. Mid 70s are then
possible as we head into the late part of next week. Lows are
expected to range form around 80s degrees west to mid 60s across
south central Kansas Sunday night then range from the mid 40s west
to upper 50s east Monday night. Low in the mid 40s to low 50s are
then expected for the remainder of the long term forecast

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 712 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Another breezy/windy day is forecast with afternoon winds topping
out in the 20 to 24 knot range yet again. Some gusts will be
around 30 knots. Thunderstorm chances increase late, but for now
will only include a prevailing VCTS at GCK and LBL since they are
farther west closer to where initial activity will be with this
storm system. Prolonged shower/thunderstorm chances will continue
through the remainder of the weekend into Monday when a cold front
finally pushes south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  66  79  58 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  85  62  77  55 /  50  80  80  60
EHA  79  58  77  52 /  70  80  60  50
LBL  84  63  78  57 /  40  70  70  70
HYS  88  68  78  59 /  20  40  60  70
P28  90  68  86  65 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid



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