Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300749
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EVOLVING TOWARD A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE JET. VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EQUATOR ARE VERY WARM FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO NEAR 160E. ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE
AROUND THE GLOBE, AND A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A
KELVIN WAVE IS ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC, WHERE HURRICANE ANDRES HAS DEVELOPED. THIS KELVIN WAVE LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
SHOULD REACH THE INDIAN OCEAN BY MID JUNE. THE NUMERICAL MODELS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE COHERENT SIGNAL AND ITS
EVOLUTION. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE SIGNAL AND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH LEVEL
DIVERGENCE NEAR 100W AND THE CONSISTENT PROPAGATION SPEED OF KELVIN
WAVES AROUND THE GLOBE IN RECENT WEEKS. AS SUCH, ENHANCED TROPICAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY IN PHASE TWO OF THE WHEELER-HENDON
PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAM THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE PROBABLY EXTENDING INTO
PHASE THREE THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. ENHANCED TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN PHASE TWO OF THE WHEELER-HENDON PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM ARE CORRELATED
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND A TENDENCY FOR TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ECMWF MAY BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG WITH TROUGH IN
CALIFORNIA LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT MAINTENANCE OF RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SEEMS LIKE A MORE REASONABLE
SOLUTION THAN THE TROUGHING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS.

IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN
KANSAS TODAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THIS
EVENING. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED RAPIDLY THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REACH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS.
AN EXTENSIVE AREA COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAD
INVADED NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS BY 07Z, BUT CLEARING WAS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE STRATUS SHOULD ERODE FROM NORTHERN KANSAS SOON
AFTER SUNRISE AND LIKELY WILL BE GONE FROM ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN
ON FRIDAY EVEN WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AFTER THE STRATUS ERODES. NORTH
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS,
AND LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNSET.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND INCREASING FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF
LEE TROUGHING. LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
50S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
IN CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS
IS LIKELY SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN A QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER-WISE DURING
THE FIRST FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXTENDING FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. EAST OF THE
TROUGH, A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS ALONG WITH SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN.

BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY, A FEW OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HINT AT SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS GIVEN THE MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HOLDS TROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR EVENING AND NIGHTTIME MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HELPS FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BETTER CHANCES FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE FOCUSED MORE OVER NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN KANSAS WHERE
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
REMAIN BETTER CAPPED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, KEEPING
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED.

TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REDEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS PATTERN THAN THE GFS BUT EITHER WAY, THIS
PATTERN COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AT MIDNIGHT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS
015-020 IN THE REGION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL BY 16Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
MPH WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MID MORNING AND WILL BECOME EAST
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  48  78  57 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  69  49  80  59 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  71  54  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  71  49  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  69  45  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
P28  71  49  78  57 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUTHI


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