Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 092310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Northwest flow aloft will continue through tomorrow with an upper
level ridge in the west with a trof in the east. Skies will be
mostly clear through tomorrow with the exception of portions of
central and south central Kansas where mid to upper level clouds
are expected to be present through midnight. A weak frontal
boundary or trof will set up at the surface across far western
Kansas this evening and shift eastward through tomorrow. This will
shift northwesterly winds to more of a westerly component. As for
temperatures, lows tonight are expected to be in the mid to upper
20s with the exception of far southwestern Kansas where lows
around 30 degrees are possible. A large gradient of temperatures
is expected again tomorrow with highs ranging from the upper 50s
across northern Kansas to lower 70s across far southwestern Kansas
and along the KS/OK border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A large upper level ridge will slowly slide eastward through
Friday before being pushed southward as an upper level low moves
into the Western United States then into the Northern Plains this
weekend. This will continue the northwest flow over western Kansas
through Friday. This will suppress any significant weather from
developing with mostly clear skies and dry conditions. The only
exception to this will be across central Kansas Thursday as
moisture increases in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.
Westerly winds shift to more of a northerly direction Wednesday
night into Thursday as a weak frontal boundary moves through the
area. However, this will be short lived as winds shift to a
southerly direction as a weak trof develops across eastern
Colorado. An upper level shortwave is progged to move through the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday
helping push a cold arctic dome of high pressure at the surface
into the same area. this shortwave will also help push A cold
front through the area sometime Friday afternoon into Friday night
shifting winds to the north, but veering eastward as the dome of
high pressure slides northeast of the area. Abundant cold air
advection will accompany behind this cold front with below normal
temperatures on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and dry conditions
are expected for the remainder of the extended period with a
general warming trend. However, a few of the models still suggest
a second storm system moving through the area early next week so
this will need to be watched as time passes on.

As for temperatures, a large gradient will remain across western
Kansas with highs Thursday ranging from the lower 40s across north
central Kansas to low 60s across far southwestern Kansas.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Friday with generally the
same temperature gradient from north central Kansas to far
southwestern Kansas. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night look
to dip to around 30 degrees. Cooler temperatures are expected
Friday night into Saturday with lows ranging from the lower 20s
across north central Kansas to around 30 degrees across far
southwestern Kansas. Highs Saturday look to range are expected to
range from the upper 30s across north central Kansas to upper 50s
across for southwestern Kansas. A warming trend is anticipated
Sunday into early next week with highs reaching back into the low
to mid 60s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR/SKC through Wednesday. Cirrus diminish this evening. Mid cloud
decks will affect KHYS for a time this evening. SW/W winds 5-10
kts overnight. Beginning around 15z Wed, west winds becoming gusty
at 10-20 kts, veering to NW 15-25 kts after 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26  69  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  26  69  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  30  73  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  73  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  57  26  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  68  30  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner


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