Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 242307
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
607 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to regenerate across the
eastern zones (east of Dodge City) through this afternoon.
CAPE/shear are quite healthy near Medicine Lodge early this
afternoon (MLCAPE 1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 40 kts)
so some strong to locally severe storms are probable in/near the
SE counties through sunset. Any convection through this evening
will strongly favor the eastern CWA as drier air works into the
western zones. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually taper off
across the SE counties overnight. A strong cold front is expected
to race through SW KS tonight, reaching the northern zones around
3 AM, and clearing Medicine Lodge by 7 AM. Pressure gradient
behind the cold front will support strong north winds, gusting
30-40 mph late tonight through Sunday morning. Lows Sunday morning
will range from the upper 40s at Syracuse/Hamilton county to the
lower 60s at Kiowa/Barber county.
Sunday...Refreshing. 1032 mb surface high in Wyoming at sunrise
Sunday will build SE, with the surface ridge axis building into
NW KS during the evening. North winds will be strong and gusty for
a few hours Sunday morning, and then quickly diminish as pressure
gradients relax in the afternoon. All zones dry by 1 pm, with
clouds eroding from north to south. Highs only in the lower 70s,
near room temperature, and actually several degrees below normal
for a change.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016
The coolest night and morning of the young fall season is expected
Sunday night and Monday morning. A perfectly clear sky is expected
at sunrise Monday, as a 1029 mb surface high settles directly over
SW KS. Radiational cooling will be at maximum strength with light
winds and very dry air, and followed the coolest guidance in the
low to mid 40s. Upper 30s are likely in and around Hamilton county
(forecasting 37 at Syracuse) so a frost advisory may be required
by later shifts.
An extended period of quiet weather is expected Monday through
Thursday. Upper lows over the Great Lakes and the Desert SW both
will be in no hurry to go anywhere, and strong high pressure
ridging will build between these two features across the plains.
Heights reach 592 dm at 500 mb on the 12z ECMWF run by Wednesday
evening. A warming trend can be expected, with 70s Monday, and
back to the mid 80s Wednesday. Winds will be very light in this
regime with few if any clouds Monday through Wednesday. Delightful
early fall weather.
Medium range models agree the Desest SW cutoff low will weaken
late next week, and shear out into the plains as a series of weak
shortwaves. This will be the next opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms, with the 12z ECMWF suggesting Saturday morning is
the most likely timeframe.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016
Evening convection near Dodge City will dissipate by 02z Sunday. A
surface ridge axis will build into western Kansas overnight. The
winds at less than 10 knots earlier this evening will become
northwest between 03z and 06z Sunday. In the areas where the winds
will be light and variable through 09z there will be a chance for
some patchy fog overnight and even a period of MVFR ceilings,
mainly around the Dodge City area. Elsewhere lingering VFR
ceilings at around Dodge City and Hays early this evening will
gradually clear from northwest to southeast late tonight as an
upper level trough slowly moves across western Kansas. Between 12z
and 15z Sunday the north to northwest winds will increase into the
15 to 20 knot range.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 73 44 74 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 54 72 40 74 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 52 70 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 57 72 46 73 / 40 0 0 0
HYS 54 71 44 73 / 30 0 0 0
P28 62 73 49 74 / 80 30 0 0