Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today will be hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the central
and eastern zones to low 100s across far western Kansas. Attention
then turns to this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible once again
with the highest chances across the western zones. CAMs are suggesting
two rounds of convection. The first this evening along and west of
Highway 83. The second round of convection comes late tonight and through
the overnight period from thunderstorms originating from NE Colorado
to NW Kansas. This activity will eventually drift SE if convection
can hold together. The main threat will be outflow winds of 60-70 mph
as the lower atmosphere will be mixed with an inverted v thermo profile.
There could be some hail, although marginal bulk shear and upscale
growth should limit overall larger sizes. For tonight, lows in the
60s are forecast for much of the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

There will be bouts of convection in the long term domain. The synoptic
pattern is a west to northwest flow aloft, which is conducive to some
MCSs. The first that is possible is early Friday. Residual cloud cover
on this day may limit overall highs with mainly 70s. Low level upslope
flow in combination with a northwest flow aloft during the weekend
will still keep a favorable synoptic pattern for thunderstorm complexes
to march across the Kansas prairie. Temperatures will be pleasant
over the weekend with the cloud cover and precipitation around - 70s
to lower 80s. Beyond the weekend, only isolated storms for the beginning
of the week are expected along with warmer/moderating temperatures.
The extended period ends with hot temperatures as WAA strengthens ahead
of approaching synoptic disturbances from the northwest and stronger
low level downslope flow. The good news is there might be enough low
level moisture in place to generate some storms across the forecast
district.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

VFR will prevail at the airports through this TAF period, with the
exception of brief reductions in cig/vis with passing convection
this afternoon and tonight. SKC this morning will give way to a
scattered to broken cumulus field this afternoon, as south winds
at 10-20 kts back to SEly after 21z. Instability builds again late
today, with NAM/HRRR models both showing thunderstorms near GCK by
00z Fri. Scattered convection expected to propogate SE through the
00-06z Fri timeframe. An unseasonably strong cold front will also
swing through during this time, with a shift to NE winds gusting
25-30 kts outside of convection. High confidence that TSRA will
exist this evening, but confidence is low on specific timing of
impacts at the airports, so did not include TEMPO groups for now.
Post frontal stratus is expected after 09z Fri, but expectation is
for these cigs to remain VFR. Best chance of MVFR cigs in the
cooler and moist upslope post frontal flow Friday morning will be
across far SW Kansas, from EHA to LBL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  64  78  58 /  20  40  30  10
GCK 102  62  78  57 /  30  40  30  10
EHA 101  61  76  58 /  30  40  30  10
LBL 101  65  77  59 /  20  40  30  10
HYS  98  62  77  56 /  30  40  40   0
P28  96  68  82  59 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner



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