634
FXUS63 KDDC 190518
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...Updated Aviation and Short Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday evening)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

A very warm day is in store to begin the weekend. An upper level
high was centered across New Mexico, which has allowed 850-700mb
temperatures to warm up quite a bit, with +16C at 700mb at KABQ at
19/0000 UTC. This warm air will continue to expand east into
southwest Kansas, so we should see temperatures exceed yesterday`s
surface temperatures by 3 or 4 degrees across the board -- going
for 97 at Dodge City and 100 for highs in the Red Hills of Clark,
Comanche, Barber County. A surface leeside trough will become
established by late afternoon, and convergence will setup in its
traditional axis from Baca County through east-central Colorado.
Convective initiation is expected along this axis in the 2100 to
20/0000 UTC time frame today, and will have some slight chance
POPs along the CO border. Short-term models suggest the storms
farther south will struggle to live much past 0000 UTC. There is
some model consistency in the best convective organization farther
north across northwestern Kansas, with a small MCS expected north
of I-70 in the 0000 to 0600 UTC time frame. Given that likelihood,
we will have some 30-40 POPs across Trego and Ellis County to
account for exact location uncertainty, although the better
probability for location of an MCS will be closer to the Nebraska
border. The rest of the forecast through tonight is fairly
straight-forward without much in the way of change from the
inherited grids.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Sunday...Still plenty hot, with an isolated late day thunderstorm
possible. With sprawling Bermuda High to the east, and weak
cutoff low near Los Angeles, gentle SW flow aloft will allow
monsoonal moisture to seep into SW KS, at least at the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere. Despite the moisture and hot
temperatures, forcing and instability appear weak. Kept pops very
low. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s.

Monday...Isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms remain possible.
A few degrees cooler, mainly in the lower 90s. Broad 500 mb trough
will progress through the northern plains during the day, with
attendant lee trough persisting over SW KS. Isolated convection
expected along this boundary during the afternoon, with some
strong storms possible. Expect thunderstorm coverage to increase,
particularly across the northern zones, Monday evening as strong
cold front approaches. This front looks rather robust for August,
and will need to monitor for severe weather potential (mainly
NE counties) Monday evening/night. ECMWF strongly suggests an MCS
over north central Kansas.

Tuesday...North winds and cooler. 12z ECMWF drops 850 mb
temperatures to near 18C NE to near 20C at Dodge City. Heights
aloft will still be substantial (592 dm), so the cooldown will be
modest, mainly upper 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly dry, with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Light winds through mid morning will give way to south winds in
the 12 to 15 knot range from 1600 UTC on through the afternoon. At
this time, thunderstorm probability at any of the terminals is too
low and too far out to mention in this 0600 UTC version of the
TAF. The HYS TAF may need some mention of convection is confidence
in an MCS tracking near HYS increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  98  70  95 /  10   0  10  20
GCK  64  97  68  93 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  64  96  66  90 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  66  97  69  94 /  10   0  10  20
HYS  65  98  69  96 /   0   0  40  10
P28  70 100  72  96 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid