000
FXUS63 KDDC 231747
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The general concern today is with pops. The evening thunderstorm complex
is moving out of the forecast district early this morning. There is
some spotty showers farther to the southwest. As a result, have broadbrushed
the area with slight pops. For this afternoon, some of the CAMs are
dry. This makes sense as there is some subsidence in the wake of a
departing synoptic trof across the Northern Plains. High pressure will
build in as well through the day. As a result, have lowered pops considerably
and kept towards a drier solution. There might be a few showers/thunderstorms
in the northwest zones this afternoon, but confidence is not high.
Low end slight pops look reasonable for now. Severe weather is not
expected as both instability and shear are very marginal. Lightning
would be the main threat. Otherwise, enjoy todays highs, which are
expected to be in the pleasant 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Pleasant weather will continue through the weekend with 70s and 80s
for highs. There maybe a slight chance of storms Sunday in the northwest
flow aloft pattern and some lower BL moisture forecast. The slight
to low end chance pops look reasonable for now. A broad ridge will
start to influence our weather by the beginning of the upcoming business
week and temperatures will trend to the hot/normal side. By mid week,
increasing BL moisture and a pattern more conducive for MCS activity
might evolve with higher probabilities of thunderstorms. Towards the
end of the long term domain, temps will be well in the 90s a few storms
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

While being well behind the main cold front, a weak upper
disturbance is bringing some widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to portions of central KS. This will mainly impact
the HYS terminal for the next couple of hours although ceiling
and visibility values will stay in the VFR to worst case scenario
MVFR range. Otherwise, high pressure will build into the region
this evening with light winds and a clear sky prevailing into
Saturday with unlimited visibility values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  55  80  58 /  40  10   0  10
GCK  77  53  78  56 /  40  10  10  20
EHA  74  55  77  57 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  76  56  79  58 /  30  10  10  30
HYS  76  53  78  56 /  50   0   0  20
P28  85  57  82  60 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...AJohnson