152
FXUS63 KDDC 260548
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally brief moderate to heavy rainfall can be expected from
  late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Chance for
  Thunderstorms 20-40%.

- There is a marginal risk for wind gusts up to 60 mph and
  locally heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday afternoon and
  evening east of a Hays to Dodge City to Ashland line.

- A warming trend returns to southwest Kansas over the weekend.
  this will result in afternoon highs climbing into the mid 90s
  with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A monsoonal component to the moisture over the central High
Plains continues Today, as PWAT values are still hanging around
150% of normal for mid June over southwest and west central
Kansas. The best opportunity for very locally heavy rain
producing showers and thunderstorms, and even strong gusty
winds, will be in those more west central counties and later
this afternoon and evening (west of a Hay to Liberal line and
about 10% or less coverage). HREF Probability matched means for
anything appreciable in terms of QPF hangs well to the northwest
along an Oakley to Eads, Co axis. The marginal outlook has been
removed Today although a general thunderstorm outlook is in
place for This Afternoon.

The trough at the surface is modeled to eject slightly eastward
over the next 24 hours, and by posing a focus for surface
moisture convergence over the lower plains counties, a return to
a Marginal risk for severe is outlooked for Thursday afternoon
for areas east of a Hays to Minneola line. Given the general low
shear and moderate cape, it is mainly wind risk once again over
those south central Kansas counties.

The greatest heat risk in the coming days is actually this
afternoon, east of highway 283 where the category gets into the
Moderate (level 2 of 4) given the afternoon low to mid 90s and
the overnight low to mid 70s combination. A respite comes in the
the for of slightly drier boundary layer air resulting in t not
was warm overnight lows, mitigating the heat risk back into the
Minor category (level 1 of 4) for the balance of the week.
These lower categories give a heads up to those without
effective cooling or adequate hydration. An uptick back to the
moderate category again in the eastern counties returns Saturday
and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Difficult aviation forecast as it pertains to convection timing
and placement as southwest and west central Kansas will remain
within a deep, moist pattern with North American Monsoon
circulation influence. Each terminal will carry two 4-5 hour windows
of PROB30 for thunderstorms: one in the early morning hours
focused particularly in the 09-13Z time frame and the second
window later in the afternoon thursday. Understand,
thunderstorms in this pattern can pop up just about any time
anywhere, including in vicinity of or even directly over any of
the terminals, but the two aforementioned windows appear to be
the best forecast for the greatest concentration of scattered
convection.

Outside of convection, terminals will see south winds
continuing in the 10 to 15 knot range through mid to late
morning, but a wind shift will gradually occur by afternoon to
the northwest, although not that strong. The convergence in
vicinity of this wind shift will likely be the focus for
additional late afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid