Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201154
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
654 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

For today, the heat continues with upper level warm ridging intact
across the Central Plains. High temps will be dependent on 700 mb
forecast temps that show not much change from yesterday. However
more downslope surface winds will add a few degrees to highs today.
Also with downslope and deep mixing, the dewpoints will mix out, so
no heat headlines planned today. Highs will range from 101 west of
Dodge to near 98 at Dodge City and around 101 from Medicine Lodge to
Hays. South to southwest winds increase to 15 to 24 mph in the
afternoon with a lee trough and clear skies.

For tonight, south winds decrease to around 10 mph with clear skies.
Overnight lows will range from around 70 far west near the Colorado
border to the mid 70s across south central sections.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

For Thursday and Friday, the heat continues with 700 mb temps
warming a few degrees. This will allow mix down temps to be a few
degrees warmer and range from 100 to 104. However dewpoints below 65
are expected and likely not add to the heat index. Still these temps
will be very close to heat advisory especially for south central
sections where dewpoints will be the highest. Later shifts may need
evaluate how much dewpoints mix out, and if heat advisories will
be required for parts of the area.

For the weekend into early next week. Shortwave troughs will
traverse across the Plains with increasing chances for mainly late
afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms. These waves will
allow the heat wave to break with highs back into the low to mid 90s
from Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in a continuation of south winds. The strongest
winds will be during peak heating in the afternoon. VFR
conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  74 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
GCK 101  72 101  71 /   0   0   0  10
EHA 101  72 101  71 /   0   0   0  10
LBL 100  73 103  72 /   0   0   0  10
HYS 101  75 102  74 /   0   0   0  10
P28 100  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch


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