000
FXUS63 KDDC 051723
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1123 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Enhanced radar returns from the Mosaic radar loop over northeast
Colorado earlier this morning related well to an area of 700mb
frontogenesis at 06z from the the latest RAP, NAM and GFS. Each
Model move this area of frontogenesis across southwest Kansas
between 12z and 21z. In addition the model soundings today
suggested the precipitation type will be mainly snow as this band
of steadier precipitation crosses southwest Kansas. NAM and GFS
however differ slightly on timing with the GFS more progressive
than the NAM. They also differ slightly on a shallow warm layer in
the 875 to 800mb layer which if the warmer NAM is more correct
would support a chance for sleet at times. At this time will
continue to mention of mix of sleet and snow given uncertainty of
this warm layer and based on the latest RAP have trended more
towards progressive GFS on timing of the steadier precipitation.
Given the more progressive solution the precipitation will end
from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Clouds will also
begin to decrease from northwest to southeast late in the day
based subsidence and drier air developing in the wake of an upper
level trough as it crosses western Kansas between 18z Wednesday
and 00z Thursday. With some breaks of sun possible by late day in
far western/west Central Kansas will trend towards the warmer
MET/MAV guidance for highs while further east favor the cooler NAM
2 meter temps. Given how progressive this system is expected today
will continue to favor snowfall amounts of 1 inch or less,
however if a band of the steadier precipitation persists longer in
one area, like what the NAM suggests between 18z and 21z, then a few
locations may have totals of up to 2 inches. Still given this snow
amounts will be below advisory criteria.

Tonight a surface ridge axis will cross south central Kansas as
surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies.
Southwest winds developing across much of western Kansas early
tonight may limit how cold temperatures will be early Thursday
morning so will continue to favor temperatures bottoming in the 20
to 25 degree range across far western and West central Kansas.
Further east, near the surface ridge axis, will lower temperatures
back to around 15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

The GFS/GEM/UKMET were generally accepted over the ECMWF in regards
to the next upper level system to affect western Kansas Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front will progress through western Kansas
Friday, with upper level energy hanging back over the southern Rockies
Friday night, and then slowly progressing southeastward in positively
tiled fashion by Saturday. This is certainly far from an ideal
prescription for a significant precipitation event given the lack of
low level baroclinic development, with post frontal cold advection
dominating. There is a small chance of rain late Friday and Friday
evening before a changeover to snow occurs later Friday night.
Some accumulation of snow is possible by midday Saturday before the
precipitation shuts off.

After the aforementioned upper level system moves southward into
Texas on Sunday, upper level ridging will develop over the central
high plains, with lee trough formation over the high plains. This
will lead to southwesterly boundary layer winds and warmer
temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Temperatures may even reach
70 on Monday.

Yet another upper level system will approach the central and southern
high plains by Tuesday or Tuesday night, along with cooler air and
another chance of rain or snow in the wake of the surface cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

For a couple of hours, there will be light snow, cigs down around
bkn010, and vsbys down to as low as 2sm in -sn.  There is a thin
25-mile wide band of light to moderate snow following an upper
level axis of a low pressure trough moving east across Kansas.
Then there will be a 4 to 6 hour period of 080-100 foot cigs,
before winds will drop off and skies will begin to clear for the
overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  19  57  35 /  70   0   0   0
GCK  35  23  63  35 /  70   0   0   0
EHA  41  28  66  40 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  38  23  63  38 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  32  19  56  33 /  80   0   0   0
P28  38  14  52  34 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ030-
031-043>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...Burke