Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210858
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
358 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a weak upper level
disturbance were moving out of Colorado into northwest Kansas early
this morning. Mesoscale convective allowing models have been very
consistent from run to run over the past several hours that this
area of convection will dissipate before moving into the forecast
area this morning. Latest trends in lightning strike rates and
cloud top temperatures suggests that this is taking place. Will
have to keep an eye on it for the next few hours but current
thinking is that the model solutions will win out and storms
dissipate.

For the rest of today into tonight, expect something of a repeat
of Tuesday afternoon and evening with scattered thunderstorms
developing along a surface trough over west central and far
southwest Kansas by mid afternoon and propagate southeastward into
the evening hours before diminishing. NAM model is progging mean
layer CAPE values around 2500-3500 j/kg along with 30-40 knots of
deep layer shear. LHP is not quite as robust as Tuesday afternoon
with the model suggesting hail sizes more around golfball size.

Temperatures should be similar to Tuesday with highs in the mid
90s to near 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The latter part of the week will see a fairly progressive and active
flow pattern across the northern part of the country. On Thursday,
a strong upper shortwave trough will move east across the plains
of southern Canada and the northern U.S. This will force a cold
front southward into western Kansas by afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms along and behind the front over western Kansas. The
GFS and ECMWF both show a broad upper level trough sagging
southward across North America with the stronger upper level
westerlies extending southward toward the central High Plains and
Ohio Valley by the weekend. This will result in much cooler
temperatures and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. Highs on Sunday may only top out in the lower
70s...some 15 degrees below normal. Temperatures will begin to
moderate some early next week as an upper level ridge over the
western states builds eastward over the Plains.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions are will prevail through this period. LLWS is
expected at all the terminals through the early morning hours and
will diminish by sunrise. Showers and isolated thunderstorms over
eastern Colorado may stray into far western Kansas early this
morning. There is some small probability for these to impact the
Garden City terminal but the showers are expected to diminish by
sunrise as well. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by
Wednesday afternoon and could impact operations at all the
terminals by early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  96  65 /  20  30   0  30
GCK 101  67 100  64 /  30  40  20  40
EHA  99  66  99  63 /  40  40  20  30
LBL 100  68  99  65 /  30  40  10  40
HYS  97  70  95  64 /  30  40  10  40
P28  95  69  95  69 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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