Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 061944
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
144 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
...Updated Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
Clouds expected to increase rapidly this evening as lift increases
ahead of approaching shortwave. Boundary layer is exceptionally
dry (dewpoints currently falling to near zero) and it will take
lots of time for the atmosphere to moisten from the top down. All
zones dry through at least midnight, but did mention a chance of
snow showers for the northern zones toward morning. Ceilings will
gradually lower overnight, and gusty SE winds overnight will back
to more easterly near sunrise as shortwave approaches. Despite the
clouds and winds, cold/dry air advection will continue, and
lowered Wednesday morning lows closer to the 12z MAV guidance
(upper teens and lower 20s).
Strong shortwave over SW Oregon at midday will race eastward
through the short term, reaching Kansas on Wednesday,and exiting
eastern Kansas Wednesday evening. While jet dynamics with this
system are strong, it remains much too progressive, and as such
too moisture starved to bring much precipitation to SW KS. In
addition, models have settled on a shortwave track across the
northern CWA Wednesday, which will limit any snow accumulations of
consequence to the northern zones. Even here, reduced the
inherited snow amounts even more, with around one inch north of a
Scott City-Ness City-La Crosse line. The areas with the best shot
of picking up an inch of fluffy snow are Trego/Ellis counties, and
the northern portions of those counties at that. Per coordination
with WFO Goodland, will not be issuing a winter weather advisory
for any zones. Some limited blowing snow is possible along the
I-70 corridor for several hours Wednesday morning, as the heavier
snow showers pass by. All other zones, snow amounts will be
minuscule to none, mostly flurries.
Primary impact on Wednesday will be the arrival of cold arctic
air. All models show cold air advection continuing all day, with
the atmosphere becoming colder as the day progresses. This effect
will be magnified by strong gusty NE/N winds and invading stratus
clouds. Temperatures will struggle to move much of anywhere, stuck
in the 20s all day for most zones; near 20 NW to near freezing far
SE. A slow downward non-diurnal temperature curve is possible. Wind
chill factors will average 10-15 degrees during daylight hours
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
This entire long term forecast period is dry. Not great news for
the expanding moderate/severe drought across SW KS.
Thursday...Strong arctic high pressure ridge axis will hold firm
over Kansas, and we will spend one more day in the freezer.
Morning lows Thursday morning will range from near zero in
Hamilton county to near 15 at Medicine Lodge, with single digits
common. NW winds will persist around 10 mph through sunrise
Thursday, as very strong high pressure continues to build in from
the NW. As such, wind chill factors for the commute to work and
school Thursday will be quite uncomfortable, ranging from -5 to
-10. Winds at this time appear light enough to preclude the need
for a wind chill advisory. Even with full sunshine Thursday,
forecasting mainly 20s Thursday afternoon with all locations
remaining below freezing.
Thursday Night/Friday Morning...Another cold night, as radiational
cooling will again be quite strong, especially before midnight.
Upper single digits and lower teens will be common. Return SE flow
should offset this some toward sunrise Friday.
Friday and Saturday...Arctic air is flushed out, and temperatures
moderate nicely. Expect 50s to return to the SW counties Saturday
12z ECMWF forecasts another progressive shortwave to zip across
Kansas on Sunday. Some light rain/snow showers are possible with
this, but GFS is dry so kept the grids dry. Certainly any
precipitation would be very light if any.
More dry uneventful NW flow well into next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
NW winds will diminish and become light and variable this
afternoon, as surface high translates SE across SW KS. SE surface
winds will commence after sunset as this high moves to eastern
Kansas. VFR expected to continue through at least 06z Wed at all
airports, although cigs will be lowering to near 5-7k ft AGL.
After 06z Wed, SE winds increase and become gusty, 10-20 kts,
gusting 25 kts, as strong shortwave approaches from Colorado.
After 12z Wed, cigs will continue to lower, with increasing E/NE
winds, gusting 25-28 kts. At GCK/DDC, included MVFR stratus cigs
after 16z Wed, along with VCSH for passing -SHSN. Snow is most
likely at HYS Wednesday morning, where one inch of accumulation is
possible. Limited vis in -SN/BLSN possible at HYS 12-18z Wed.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 18 27 8 27 / 20 30 0 0
GCK 18 25 7 26 / 30 40 0 0
EHA 16 28 9 25 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 20 30 10 27 / 10 20 0 0
HYS 18 25 9 25 / 40 60 0 0
P28 25 34 15 31 / 10 20 0 0