Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261836
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
136 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will sweep through the area either later overnight
Saturday, or very early Sunday morning. The airmass change will
provide relief from the hot temperatures of recent days, with highs
back below normal again (normals highs for late July are in the (low
to mid 90s). The consensus of the raw model output was used for
these forecasts with the bias correction applied. Breezy northeast
winds should diminish by late day Sunday.

Monday might be an environment better characterized by showers and
isolated thunderstorms due to a cloudy mid level and more weakly
unstable layer. Recent NAM runs appear less favorable for convection
as well as the upper ridge becomes better established over the
Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

A better chance for more robust severe and heavy rain producing
thunderstorms will return in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe as deeper surface and boundary layer moisture returns to
the region. the pattern would still support MCS activity over the
central or southern Plains, moving into western Kansas late in the
day or evening/overnight. The week will be anomalously cool for
late June/ early August as the surface high pressure dominates the
upper midwest and meridional northerly flow aloft maintains cool
flow across the central Plains states.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A surface trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary
today as a cold front move south across western Kansas during the
afternoon. As the cold front passes the westerly winds at around
10knots will shift to the north. Clouds will increase later today
but VFR conditions are expected given that the NAM BUFR soundings
indicated that this moisture will be located at or above the
700mb level. There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms near
the cold front late today/early tonight, however given the
widely scattered nature expected will not include -tsra in the
prevailing TAFS at this time. If storms do develop they will be
high based with strong winds being the main hazard.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  65  84 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  69  85  64  83 /  30  20  20  30
EHA  69  84  66  83 /  30  40  30  30
LBL  71  87  67  85 /  30  30  20  30
HYS  70  87  63  85 /  20  10  10  20
P28  74  89  68  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert






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