Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES BEING ACHIEVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS INITIALLY HEAVY RAINS AND NOW STRATIFORM
RAINFALL OVERSPREADS THE K-96 AND I-70 CORRIDORS. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WERE FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION  SOUTH OF THE ARK RIVER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, HOWEVER THE
RADAR TREND AT THIS TIME IS NOT FAVORING THE SAME SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER
THE OUTFLOW WILL EXPAND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, THIS MORNING. MCS
ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE DIURNAL HEATING
DEVELOPS CLUSTERS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THAT MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE OVERALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST .
THE PERIOD IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH A BROAD UPPER  HIGH EXTENDED  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS AND
A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXTENDING INTO KANSAS. A
BETTER CONVERGENCE/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION I THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA, WHICH WILL HAVE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES  FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. OPPORTUNITIES  BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME MAY
DEPEND  MORE ON NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET PROCESSES WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK DOES APPEAR COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BOTH FROM MODEL
AND MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 20KT TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  75  97  69 /  20  10  50  50
GCK  98  72  95  67 /  20  20  40  50
EHA 100  70  95  66 /  20  20  50  50
LBL 100  75  98  69 /  10  20  50  50
HYS  99  75  95  68 /  20  20  20  50
P28  99  75 100  72 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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